Nit possibilty
- Thread starter gtbync
- Start date
Fatmike91
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,298
- Location
- SW Florida
Here's how I see it:
1 - Lose to Clemson - NIT bubble - could be all over
2 - Beat Clemson - NIT is very likely, some NCAA chatter
3 - Beat Virginia - good NCAA bubble resume (RPI will be plummeting). I think we're dancing.
4 - Beat Miami/? - NCAA bid likely
5 - Win ACC tourney -- we're in...
I think we'll end up in the post season.
/
1 - Lose to Clemson - NIT bubble - could be all over
2 - Beat Clemson - NIT is very likely, some NCAA chatter
3 - Beat Virginia - good NCAA bubble resume (RPI will be plummeting). I think we're dancing.
4 - Beat Miami/? - NCAA bid likely
5 - Win ACC tourney -- we're in...
I think we'll end up in the post season.
/
- Messages
- 5,901
I think GT is basically locked into the NIT, unless it makes an unexpected deep run in the ACC tourney.
The three big NIT Bracketology sites have all updated within the last 24 hours.
Here is where GT stands.
DRatings (updated today)- the top 3 seed (Clemson is the second 3 seed) - GT was the top 4 seed before the Pitt game yesterday
BracketMatrix - #2 seed (this was last updated yesterday prior to the Pitt game) - Clemson is a 4 seed in this one
NYC Buckets - #2 seed (updated today) - Clemson is a 7 seed in this one.
Even a loss to Clemson is unlikely to knock GT out of the NIT. Actually, even with a loss i think the odds of a home game are pretty high. Clemson is going to be seen as a solid tourney opponent. I think the lowest GT is likely to be seeded is a 5, and a 4 is probably more likely. But we'll see next weekend.
The three big NIT Bracketology sites have all updated within the last 24 hours.
Here is where GT stands.
DRatings (updated today)- the top 3 seed (Clemson is the second 3 seed) - GT was the top 4 seed before the Pitt game yesterday
BracketMatrix - #2 seed (this was last updated yesterday prior to the Pitt game) - Clemson is a 4 seed in this one
NYC Buckets - #2 seed (updated today) - Clemson is a 7 seed in this one.
Even a loss to Clemson is unlikely to knock GT out of the NIT. Actually, even with a loss i think the odds of a home game are pretty high. Clemson is going to be seen as a solid tourney opponent. I think the lowest GT is likely to be seeded is a 5, and a 4 is probably more likely. But we'll see next weekend.
Fatmike91
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,298
- Location
- SW Florida
If we don't get a bid to the big dance, what will keep us out is going 1-4 vs. the RPI 50-100.
Losses (RPI 51-100)
RPI DATE OPPONENT SCORE
94 Nov. 22 East Tennessee State 68-69
72 Dec. 19 @ Georgia 61-75
86 Jan. 16 Virginia Tech 77-78
57 Jan. 30 @ Syracuse 57-60
Our only win in the RPI 50-100 was vs. FSU. If we close out VPISU and ETSU I think we'd be on the bubble looking in.
/
Losses (RPI 51-100)
RPI DATE OPPONENT SCORE
94 Nov. 22 East Tennessee State 68-69
72 Dec. 19 @ Georgia 61-75
86 Jan. 16 Virginia Tech 77-78
57 Jan. 30 @ Syracuse 57-60
Our only win in the RPI 50-100 was vs. FSU. If we close out VPISU and ETSU I think we'd be on the bubble looking in.
/
- Messages
- 15,724
Updating... North Florida is definitely in at this point after a barnburner win by Florida Gulf Coast last night.
High Point
Belmont
Bucknell
North Florida
Several Championship games:
Hofstra/UNCW (they shared the regular season CAA, so not sure if that means the loser gets an NIT spot)
Iona/Monmouth (Monmouth's great wins early in the year might get them in regardless, but big maybe; last time they played a scuffle ensued post-game)
ETSU/Chattanooga (Chattanooga is the #1 seed, but does an ETSU win help our various metrics?)
Other notable regular season champs in action tonight include Stony Brook, Valpo, IPFW, Saint Mary's/Zags. No idea who among them are in danger of getting upset & sent to the NIT.
I do think we're in good shape for the NIT at this point and just need to wait for the shake out.
High Point
Belmont
Bucknell
North Florida
Several Championship games:
Hofstra/UNCW (they shared the regular season CAA, so not sure if that means the loser gets an NIT spot)
Iona/Monmouth (Monmouth's great wins early in the year might get them in regardless, but big maybe; last time they played a scuffle ensued post-game)
ETSU/Chattanooga (Chattanooga is the #1 seed, but does an ETSU win help our various metrics?)
Other notable regular season champs in action tonight include Stony Brook, Valpo, IPFW, Saint Mary's/Zags. No idea who among them are in danger of getting upset & sent to the NIT.
I do think we're in good shape for the NIT at this point and just need to wait for the shake out.
- Messages
- 5,901
I agree about ETSU and VT. Win those 2 home games and GT is squarely on the bubble, and given how the bubble looks, probably just on the right side.
- Messages
- 5,901
Part of the reason GT is in good shape here is that the auto bids are not stealing a potential spot from GT. GT is being put right now on the 2/3 lines. Almost all the autobids are being placed in the 7/8 lines, so they are taking bids from teams behind GT.
GT's RPI is above avg for the NIT. it's wins are about avg. It's SoS is very strong with alot of its losses coming to NCAA teams.
GT's RPI is above avg for the NIT. it's wins are about avg. It's SoS is very strong with alot of its losses coming to NCAA teams.
GTJason
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,583
That's a strong statement considering our 2nd win would be against UVA. I kind of agree with you but there's the "flavor of the week" factor and we're playing really good ball as of late. I hope we can still have this debate Friday morning. If we win 2 I like our chances
- Messages
- 15,724
Not to rain on anyone's parade, but yes, our 2nd win would have to be against UVA, who have ratcheted up their defense even further, is playing fairly lights out against very good teams, & are simply smarter on the court than 90%-95% of all of college hoops. Also, who here is willing to place bets that Q has another bonkers shooting night?
Finally, I wouldn't bet on "flavor of the week" winning the day. We'll point to wins over UVA, ND, & Pitt and anyone else can point to losses to ETSU, UGA, Clemson, ND, Pitt, VT, Cuse...
It's a body of work. Ours is the best to date under BG & it's only ok. They want to show they belong, go win the whole ACC Tourney.
- Messages
- 19,626
I'll take a stab at devil's advocate...
Syracuse (19-12, 9-9) is on the bubble by most projections and barely in the field of 68. Their best wins are Texas A&M (neutral) and @ Duke. They lost to Pitt twice, Clemson (at home), split w/ FSU, Georgetown (RPI 103), and St John's (8-23, RPI 232). Their ACC record, 1 win stronger than ours, benefits from a home-and-home with BC.
Meanwhile GT (18-13, 8-10) is nowhere near the bubble by most projections. Our best wins are UVA and ND (with Jackson). Those two teams are better than Cuse's best wins, though our wins were at home. We split w/ Pitt and Clemson. We did not lose to a sub-RPI 100 team.
Can someone reconcile? I know we lost the head-to-head, but I doubt that has anything to do with relative spot on the bubble. I think it's splitting hairs to compare our records against other fringe tournament teams anyway, unless it comes down to tiebreakers.
Syracuse (19-12, 9-9) is on the bubble by most projections and barely in the field of 68. Their best wins are Texas A&M (neutral) and @ Duke. They lost to Pitt twice, Clemson (at home), split w/ FSU, Georgetown (RPI 103), and St John's (8-23, RPI 232). Their ACC record, 1 win stronger than ours, benefits from a home-and-home with BC.
Meanwhile GT (18-13, 8-10) is nowhere near the bubble by most projections. Our best wins are UVA and ND (with Jackson). Those two teams are better than Cuse's best wins, though our wins were at home. We split w/ Pitt and Clemson. We did not lose to a sub-RPI 100 team.
Can someone reconcile? I know we lost the head-to-head, but I doubt that has anything to do with relative spot on the bubble. I think it's splitting hairs to compare our records against other fringe tournament teams anyway, unless it comes down to tiebreakers.
Fatmike91
Helluva Engineer
- Messages
- 1,298
- Location
- SW Florida
Assuming we beat BOTH Clemson and Virginia, I believe we're in. I agree it's a body of work, our resume would be pretty solid for a bubble team:
- strong strength of schedule (top ~25 at that point?)
- good wins: Virginia (2x...!), Pitt, ND, VCU
- bad losses: none
- 10 wins against ACC competition
- 7-3 in last 10 (assumes Ws v Clemson and Virginia and a loss to Miami).
Clemson away was the only sub-100 RPI team we lost to this year. Clemson away isn't a bad loss.
ETSU, Georgia are both sub 100 RPI teams. There is no shame in splitting the series against Pitt and ND. That's even a positive since both those teams are dancing. Syracuse away isn't a bad loss.
It's hard to say where our RPI would be if we win the next two, but I'd guess low 50's. It may even go down from there by losing to Miami.
I understand there are other more worthy teams, but we only need to be better than the team competing for the last spot -- and I guarantee that team competing for the last spot won't have the same level of quality wins.
Let's just win and whatever happens happens.
/
- Messages
- 10,048
- Location
- Oriental, NC
Let's see what happens. We're only 50/50 to beat Clemson tomorrow, so it's far too soon to be thinking about UVA.
I certainly hope our players are not thinking beyond this next game.
I certainly hope our players are not thinking beyond this next game.
- Messages
- 5,901
FWIW, i'd put the odds of GT beating Clemson at about 30/70.
But for hypothetical purposes lets say GT wins its next 2 with the second one being UVA. IMO that would make GT about as bubbly as you could be, probably 50/50 and I might even lean 55/45 depending upon what happens in other Tourneys.
That UVA win would carry alot of weight. A second win over a Top 5 team and on a neutral court.
This morning's RPI has UVA at #2. GT is at #70, right around Michigan (67), FSU (69), UNI (71), UGA (72)
2 conference wins would give you a 7-8 road/neutral record and a 4th win against Top 50 opponents (3 Top 25 wins). That's not too bad, especially 3 wins against the Top 25.
In kenpom the 2 wins would be even more of a help as UVA is #1 and Clemson is #51. (GT is #62)
on a separate note - that Pitt/Syracuse game should be a very strongly contested game. Pitt is #58 and Syracuse #61 in RPI. (43 and 41 respectively in Kenpom). The winner of that game is going to be feeling good about Sunday, the loser is going to be really nervous.
Hardly a slam dunk, but 2 wins would definately put GT in serious discussion, assuming UVA is win #2. A third win would lock it imo.
But for hypothetical purposes lets say GT wins its next 2 with the second one being UVA. IMO that would make GT about as bubbly as you could be, probably 50/50 and I might even lean 55/45 depending upon what happens in other Tourneys.
That UVA win would carry alot of weight. A second win over a Top 5 team and on a neutral court.
This morning's RPI has UVA at #2. GT is at #70, right around Michigan (67), FSU (69), UNI (71), UGA (72)
2 conference wins would give you a 7-8 road/neutral record and a 4th win against Top 50 opponents (3 Top 25 wins). That's not too bad, especially 3 wins against the Top 25.
In kenpom the 2 wins would be even more of a help as UVA is #1 and Clemson is #51. (GT is #62)
on a separate note - that Pitt/Syracuse game should be a very strongly contested game. Pitt is #58 and Syracuse #61 in RPI. (43 and 41 respectively in Kenpom). The winner of that game is going to be feeling good about Sunday, the loser is going to be really nervous.
Hardly a slam dunk, but 2 wins would definately put GT in serious discussion, assuming UVA is win #2. A third win would lock it imo.
ramblinwreck1378
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 625
IMO, America's love for the Cinderella is hurting P5 bubble teams like Syracuse and possibly us. Take Monmouth for instance - their good wins are listed as USC (neutral), Notre Dame (neutral), and @ Georgetown (14-17); bad losses are Canisius, Army, and Manhattan. I think both our good wins and bad losses are better than theirs; not to mention their SOS is at 199 where ours is at 25. They lost their conference tourney last night, so they would be fighting for an at-large bid just like us and Cuse. I'm not sure how much a reg season champ means to the committee, but outside of that I think our resume checks more boxes than theirs. Monmouth is reaping the benefit of being in an underdog role and beating teams they weren't supposed to beat early (including some who turned out to be not very good).
- Messages
- 19,626
Didn't realize Clemson was sub-100 RPI. Thanks for clarifying.
ETSU is #83 and Georgia is #72 (one behind us) based on this: http://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basketball-men/d1/ncaa-mens-basketball-rpi
- Messages
- 15,724
Count me as among those who'd love to see a couple more Cinderella teams over middling P5 teams. The parity this year has been somewhat remarkable and I'd personally rather watch a good story that's legit dangerous instead of a 4th AAC team or a 5th SEC team that managed to do well in a garbage year for a P5 conference. I watched that game last night & you can give me Monmouth all day.
ramblinwreck1378
Ramblin' Wreck
- Messages
- 625
I won't argue with you that the excitement is definitely there with the Cinderella's - my argument is do those Cinderella's deserve to be in over a 4th or 5th team from a P5 conference? Even a garbage year in those P5 leagues is probably still tougher than some of the mid-major leagues.
No question what makes better TV - mid-majors have made the tourney what it is today. I'm just not so sure some that are getting consideration today deserve to be in over some P5 teams.