2019 ACC Baseball

Deleted member 2897

Guest
YellowJacketFan2018 said:
Georgia Tech has been a very pleasant surprise this season:cool: Danny Hall has done a damn good job coaching the team this season:cigar:

Click to expand...


Thanks for reminding me of this beautiful GIF:
4QLv46.gif
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,241
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
bwelbo said:
As a reminder, we are tied with UNC for #1 Coastal, but own the tiebreaker. Miami is 1 game back, and owns the tiebreaker over us.

So if we go 4-2 against Duke/Pitt, either (or both) UNC and Miami would have to go 5-1 to finish ahead of us. (Ignoring some of the crazy 3-way tie rules for a minute.)

UNC finishes @Pitt (sweep is not a gimme up there on the road) and then home vs NC State. That NC State matchup is not what it was going to be a few weeks ago. But still, the odds of them going 5-1 with that schedule, I'd put less than 50/50.

Miami finishes @Wake Forest and home vs Duke. That also seems like too tough a 6 game stretch to see a 5-1 finish. I'd put that less than 50/50.

Of course, if we go 5-1, then it would require either (or both) of UNC and Miami to finish with 2 sweeps.

We won't catch Louisville overall in the ACC. (I can't see them going 1-2 and 1-2 against @Virginia and FSU.) . < 5% chance.

But after that, overall in the ACC, its Florida State at 16-11, 2 losses ahead of us, and with only @ Louisville left. They could finish with 16 wins, probably 50/50 at 17 wins, and a small chance of 18 wins. But in any case, even a 4-2 finish puts us ahead of them at the end.

NC State is 14-10. So to avoid ties, a 4-2 finish by us would require a 5-1 finish by them as well. They finish home vs Clemson and @UNC. Hard to see a 5-1 finish there.

CONCLUSION:
4-2 ACC finish probably puts us at a greater than 50/50 chance of being the #2 ACC seed overall and Coastal Champion.
5-1 ACC finish and I'd put it at greater than 95% chance.
Click to expand...
Good post... so good I quoted here on the ACC Baseball thread. ;)

Re UNC @ Pitt... Pitt has managed to avoid sweep at home all year. Although, UNC will be best team they have played at home.

Re Tiebreakers. MIA is really only team in conference (right now) that edges us on a tiebreaker situation. We should win any head-to-head or 3-way tie involving an Atlantic team by virtue of our record v Louisville (the criteria used if no head to head... this most likely would apply to NCST).
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,241
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
Top 4 seed is a pretty big advantage in ACCT. Although in 2 years of this format... the 8 top 4 seeds have failed to make semi-finals more often than they have. Despite that... it is still an advantage.

I feel like it is down to 5-7 teams with shot at top 4 seed...FSU a long shot.
LOU, GT, UNC, MIA, NCST, DUKE, FSU
These final [next] weekend matchups help...as they'll beat each other up:
FSU @ LOU
Duke @ MIA
NCST @ UNC
...not to mention what may happen the rest of this weekend.

No doubt Ga Tech is in a great spot as of today.
 
RoosterJacket

RoosterJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
638
FredJacket said:
Top 4 seed is a pretty big advantage in ACCT. Although in 2 years of this format... the 8 top 4 seeds have failed to make semi-finals more often than they have. Despite that... it is still an advantage.

I feel like it is down to 5-7 teams with shot at top 4 seed...FSU a long shot.
LOU, GT, UNC, MIA, NCST, DUKE, FSU
These final [next] weekend matchups help...as they'll beat each other up:
FSU @ LOU
Duke @ MIA
NCST @ UNC
...not to mention what may happen the rest of this weekend.

No doubt Ga Tech is in a great spot as of today.
Click to expand...
Definitely. Top 4 means we know which 1 of our 2 games we must win—1 of the games will be meaningless. If we finish outside the top 4, we have to win both games to advance to the semifinals in the ACCT.
 

bensaysitathome

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
677
RoosterJacket said:
Definitely. Top 4 means we know which 1 of our 2 games we must win—1 of the games will be meaningless. If we finish outside the top 4, we have to win both games to advance to the semifinals in the ACCT.
Click to expand...

I'm having trouble remembering...do the lower two seeds play the first game? Makes me wonder why they're "pods" instead of just having game one be a play-in game to get to the higher seed. Unless it's more an opportunity to build resumes if you're a bubble team?
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,241
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
bensaysitathome said:
I'm having trouble remembering...do the lower two seeds play the first game? Makes me wonder why they're "pods" instead of just having game one be a play-in game to get to the higher seed. Unless it's more an opportunity to build resumes if you're a bubble team?
Click to expand...
Yes... in previous years, lower 2 seeds play each other in Games 1-4. So all 3 Tues games & 1st Wed game.

I think the answer to your question is the bigger picture of resume building for bubble type teams. That extra game... could be a valuable win. ...Not to mention simply adding to ACCT schedule so teams/fans are assured 2 games.
 

senoiajacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,130
I had forgotten about that aspect of the advantage. Not only do you only need to win one, but you know WHICH one. So in that case does CDH FINALLY break with his tradition and throw our best arm in the one that counts?
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,530
senoiajacket said:
I had forgotten about that aspect of the advantage. Not only do you only need to win one, but you know WHICH one. So in that case does CDH FINALLY break with his tradition and throw our best arm in the one that counts?
Click to expand...
Hall? Change? Nah......
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,241
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
senoiajacket said:
I had forgotten about that aspect of the advantage. Not only do you only need to win one, but you know WHICH one. So in that case does CDH FINALLY break with his tradition and throw our best arm in the one that counts?
Click to expand...
MWBATL said:
Hall? Change? Nah......
Click to expand...
So who is THE best arm right now? ...let's assume a rested/healthy Xay. Legit question.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,530
Louisville getting crushed lately UVA, 12-6 in bottom of the7th. If we win and they lose, we’ll be one and a half games back facing Duke(1) and Pitt (3), while Louisville will face FSU (3). If we go 4-0 and they go 2-1 we would win the ACC regular season title. (Or we go 3-1. While they go 1-2)
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,241
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
MWBATL said:
CT is our ace. No question in my mind.

X is excellent in big ballpark because he throws a lot of fly balls, but that stadium in Durham looks small to me.
Click to expand...
I really can't imagine Hall not going with the #1 (in his mind) for the game that matters in ACC pool play. He would "change" for that. ...but keep in mind that could mean, for CT, Fri start (v Pitt) ...then Wed (5 days rest...out of routine) start in ACCT.
 
Top