As a reminder, we are tied with UNC for #1 Coastal, but own the tiebreaker. Miami is 1 game back, and owns the tiebreaker over us.
So if we go 4-2 against Duke/Pitt, either (or both) UNC and Miami would have to go 5-1 to finish ahead of us. (Ignoring some of the crazy 3-way tie rules for a minute.)
UNC finishes @Pitt (sweep is not a gimme up there on the road) and then home vs NC State. That NC State matchup is not what it was going to be a few weeks ago. But still, the odds of them going 5-1 with that schedule, I'd put less than 50/50.
Miami finishes @Wake Forest and home vs Duke. That also seems like too tough a 6 game stretch to see a 5-1 finish. I'd put that less than 50/50.
Of course, if we go 5-1, then it would require either (or both) of UNC and Miami to finish with 2 sweeps.
We won't catch Louisville overall in the ACC. (I can't see them going 1-2 and 1-2 against @Virginia and FSU.) . < 5% chance.
But after that, overall in the ACC, its Florida State at 16-11, 2 losses ahead of us, and with only @ Louisville left. They could finish with 16 wins, probably 50/50 at 17 wins, and a small chance of 18 wins. But in any case, even a 4-2 finish puts us ahead of them at the end.
NC State is 14-10. So to avoid ties, a 4-2 finish by us would require a 5-1 finish by them as well. They finish home vs Clemson and @UNC. Hard to see a 5-1 finish there.
CONCLUSION:
4-2 ACC finish probably puts us at a greater than 50/50 chance of being the #2 ACC seed overall and Coastal Champion.
5-1 ACC finish and I'd put it at greater than 95% chance.