Honestly from the moment Josh got injured my expectations (which were not that high to begin with) changed radically.
My goal before the season was a return to the NIT (understand that GT was one of the last 2 teams to get an invite last year and was nearly left out).
GT won 17 regular season games (16 against Div 1 competition). Anything in double digits wins last year was going to satisfy me.
i was sort of expecting a regression to the mean this year so anywhere from 14-17 wins would be satisfactory. i never saw NCAA as a strong possibility. That would require basically everything going right for a second straight year, that seldom happens and certainly hasn't happened to this point.
Last night game largely fell on 3 issues.
Poor defensive rebounding, poor offensive execution, and a player going nuts from 3-pt range.
This team has been pretty consistent. Without Josh in the lineup and with Ben playing hurt it is basically a 60-65 ppg offensive team. That puts a ton of pressure on the D. A very good team can hold teams to about 60-65 ppg, so realistically almost every game becomes a 50/50 game until we get more offensive punch.
We were going to rely heavily on Ben, Josh and Tad to carry the scoring load this season. Right now Josh hasn't played a min, Tad missed 3 games and Ben is playing hurt. Most of the recent games they haven't even run the offense through Ben at the high post.
Last year felt alot like Hewitt's first year. An experienced, somewhat undertalented (Hewitt's had more though) team that played hard, played well and exceeded expectations. The next 2 years were sort of rebuilding the team and roster and were basically 2 .500 teams. Then in yr 4 it really comes together.
i think this rebuild job is very similar. Since we are not bringing in FR that are expected to be big contributors for the most part as FR, it means it will take longer. Both Jose and Curtis have exceeded my early expectations for them. I'd love for Curtis to shoot more, but he is a FR and sort of playing like one - willing to defer.
I think Pastner made an interesting comment after the NW game. His comment was this FR class was going to be great when they are JR - I think he may turn out to be right. Unfortunately as fans that means we have 2 yrs before we get there. I'm sort of expecting the true breakthrough to come when this class is JR. That is when my expectations are really going to be raised.
This yr, who knows what is going to happen, been a tough start. The news yesterday that not only is Josh not practicing, he is not doing any conditioning work right now either as they don't want the finger to get infected again is a little of a double whammy. Not only is Josh going to be rusty when he comes back, he is not going to be in top shape either. Assuming he is back around the 1st of the year I think it will take a good 2 weeks before we start to see the real Josh. That would mean only about 6 weeks of top level Josh.
I think this team could do well late in the season as the ACC schedule is frontloaded. The key is going to be is the team going to be too far in the hole by that team to even be able to make a run for the NIT. But all you can do is play the team you have. I don't think the coaching has been quite as good this year, but they are also somewhat limited in what levers they can pull. I'd love to see Curt shoot more - but some of that will come as he gains more experience and gets more comfortable with college. You can only force it so much. Jose is off to a strong start- but he is going to have bad games. AD is better than last year but he is still a limited player.
The thought was it would take 3 recruiting class to get the program out of the woods and on more stable ground. This year's FR class is the first of those. We have 2 more to go (with the second one nearly complete).
It's frustrating and I certainly wasn't a Pastner fan when he was hired, but we have to be patient to an extent and let the rebuild play out. if in season 4 or 5 it isn't working we can make a move, but we have to get to that point first and the staff is going to have pretty long string to get there.