So, here's some GameOnPaper stuff.
First, defense. If you can do it, go back and watch the game. Here's the condensed game (hopefully, no ads):
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First, Stop Rate--how much we made Miami punt, or turnover the ball, or turnover on downs--was 38%, which was really good considering they didn't actually turn the ball over. Havoc is "how much did we get into their backfield and do damage?", and the answer is pretty much that we didn't. We didn't do anything against their OL, and we needed to in order to win. That's been their weakness this season and we didn't or couldn't take advantage of it. We did try blitzing, but their receivers got free too quickly or we had busted coverages.
Nothing else good on the defensive side. It's not that our defense was bad on Saturday, but it wasn't as good as we needed it to be. It's the kind of defense that keeps you in a game where the offense is keeping you ahead, but we needed a defense that would win us the ball game.
| Defensive |
|
|
|---|
| Scrimmage Plays | 67 | 61 |
| Stop Rate | 27% | 38% |
| Havoc Plays Created | 13 (19%) | 2 (3%) |
| Passing | 7 (16%) | 0 (0%) |
| Rushing | 6 (25%) | 2 (5%) |
| TFLs Generated | 9 | 2 |
| Passing | 3 | 0 |
| Rushing | 6 | 2 |
| Sacks Generated | 2 (5%) | 0 (0%) |
| Passes Defensed | 0 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 0 |
| Fumbles Forced | 0 | 0 |
OK, offense.
| Overall |
|
|
|---|
| EPA/Play | 0.17 71st %ile | -0.26 8th %ile |
| Success Rate | 48% 77th %ile | 43% 57th %ile |
| Yards/Play | 5.98 50th %ile | 6.70 69th %ile |
| EPA/Dropback | 0.44 84th %ile | -0.45 8th %ile |
| EPA/Rush | 0.05 53rd %ile | 0.06 55th %ile |
| Yards/Dropback | 7.16 63rd %ile | 5.16 30th %ile |
| Explosive Play Rate | 2% 2nd %ile | 7% 32nd %ile |
| 3rd Down Success Rate | 62% 91st %ile | 33% 23rd %ile |
| Red Zone Success Rate | 80% 95th %ile | 38% 45th %ile |
| Def Run Stuff Rate | 29% 44th %ile | 19% 9th %ile |
| Havoc Rate | 3% 7th %ile | 19% 92nd %ile |
EPA/Play: How much did our plays help lead to scores? It was the bottom 10%. We played a lot of football inside our own 10 and in our own side of the field. We threw four picks and killed our own scoring drives. After the first pick, somebody should have said "we need to get that 6'5" safety away from where the play is going".
Our rushing game was actually OK. Not "win the game, OK", but helpful. We should have run the ball more. Completing some of the swing passes to the backs would have helped. We had some "high percentage" plays that weren't high percentage for us.
Success rate: we moved the chains pretty well. We just self-destructed. Drive ending interceptions are worse than field goals. Yards/play: we were ahead of Miami on this front--unfortunately, that tells you what a 4 turnover deficit can do to a team.
Yards/dropback: We still have a lot of passes behind the line of scrimmage, and we had too many incomplete passes. The passing game really let us down Saturday, and it wasn't all Miami--our passing was inaccurate and we didn't get enough completions. You might think that 56% completion percentage is fine, but it really wasn't. Pyron had an acceptable QBR, but I don't think that really tells the story. We didn't distribute the ball well enough.
The red zone numbers are technically better than normal, but that's mostly because we self-destructed before getting into the red zone.
On Miami's side, they were golden in the red zone. That's deadly.
Some of these stats below are just wrong. Hassan Hall is shown here with 5 catches on 5 targets, and that's not true. There were multiple swing passes to Hall in the backfield that were incomplete. Every receiver is 100% on their catches vs targets. We'll have to wait for the PFF results, but one big problem is that Miami knew who we were trying to target and put multiple defenders on Carter and McCollum. We seem to lock in on a couple of receivers, and that hurt us yesterday. We needed the "third" receiver to have a big day, and that didn't happen.
I'm sharing this table, but just know that there's something wrong with the ESPN stats behind them.
| Pass Targets | Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA |
|---|
| Nate McCollum | 7 catches (7 targets), 90 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 12.86 | 1.15 | 8.08 | 71% | 14.0% |
| Malik Rutherford | 2 catches (2 targets), 33 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 16.50 | 1.88 | 3.77 | 100% | 0.0% |
| Peje' Harris | 1 catch (1 target), 23 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 23.00 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 100% | 0.0% |
| Jamie Felix | 3 catches (3 targets), 19 yds, 1 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.33 | 0.55 | 1.64 | 67% | 0.0% |
| Malachi Carter | 2 catches (2 targets), 24 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 12.00 | 0.74 | 1.48 | 100% | 0.0% |
| Luke Benson | 1 catch (1 target), 9 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.00 | 0.97 | 0.97 | 100% | 0.0% |
| Dontae Smith | 1 catch (1 target), 5 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.00 | 0.23 | 0.23 | 100% | 1.0% |
| Hassan Hall | 5 catches (5 targets), 19 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 3.80 | -0.16 | -0.81 | 60% | -4.0% |
Here are the ESPN stats (no targets). Carter was pretty much silenced by Miami.
For rushing, Saturday wasn't a Hassan Hall day. It looks like Dontae Smith should have seen a lot more action.
| Rush Attempts | Stat line | Yards/play | EPA/play | EPA | SR | WPA |
|---|
| Zach Pyron | 7 carries, 67 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 9.57 | 0.74 | 5.18 | 71% | 10.0% |
| Zach Gibson | 1 carry, 6 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 6.00 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 100% | 0.0% |
| Jamie Felix | 4 carries, 18 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 4.50 | -0.06 | -0.26 | 25% | -3.0% |
| Dontae Smith | 5 carries, 27 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 5.40 | -0.11 | -0.54 | 40% | 0.0% |
| Hassan Hall | 7 carries, 14 yds, 0 TD, 0 Fum (0 lost) | 2.00 | -0.42 | -2.93 | 43% | -9.0% |
