Way too much logic and intelligence in your post for this board. Forecasting wins is a fool's errand. I'd add that we don't know what the injury situation will be--for us or opponents. We happened to draw Jurkovec for the BC game who had been out for awhile, for example. He doesn't play, we probably win.
What is clear to me is that the 6 that you refer to know little about college football and less about our roster. We looked worse at the end of the year due to lots of injuries and being a team with little depth. They don't start to understand that-but they don't want too, either.