Coronavirus Thread

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jwsavhGT

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There's the rub...if the government restricts travel to every country with the virus then there is no travel allowed anywhere. What about travel between states? Then cities? Then neighborhoods? Then what? Everything shuts down.

Testing protocols are in place to keep the system from being overwhelmed. Just because someone has the sniffles and a sore throat should they be tested? Do you tie up resources (lab personnel, test capabilities, etc) for what may be a reaction to the start of pollen season? I applaud the person for self-quaranteeing (spelling?) but talking to the Washington Post appears to be grandstanding.

Follow the CDC guidelines & be smart.
 
slugboy

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I’ve seen a lot of corporate “try to do meetings remotely” emphasis lately. I think it’s going to hit hotels and airlines hard.


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slugboy

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I’m now getting targeted ads for medical face masks
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Current death rate corrected for diagnosis date is running about 4.2%. The traditional Flu is something like 0.2%. (21x higher)

That's why people are alarmed, on top of the fact that Coronavirus seems to be significantly more contagious and for longer.

Those with compromised immune systems like the elderly are still the only ones (IMHO) who really need to be ready to hunker down. I think our best hope is to hold on as long as we can and see if we can make it to the end of the month. The Flu always dies out on its own come first of spring.
 
Techster

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bwelbo said:
Current death rate corrected for diagnosis date is running about 4.2%. The traditional Flu is something like 0.2%. (21x higher)

That's why people are alarmed, on top of the fact that Coronavirus seems to be significantly more contagious and for longer.

Those with compromised immune systems like the elderly are still the only ones (IMHO) who really need to be ready to hunker down. I think our best hope is to hold on as long as we can and see if we can make it to the end of the month. The Flu always dies out on its own come first of spring.
Click to expand...

NM
 
RonJohn

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bwelbo said:
I think our best hope is to hold on as long as we can and see if we can make it to the end of the month. The Flu always dies out on its own come first of spring.
Click to expand...

What I have read indicates that virus experts are not sure if this virus will be seasonal or not. There are theories about why the flu is seasonal, but nothing has been proven. (such as stays aloft in the air longer in cold and dry climates, but it also spreads through tropical areas with high humidity)

It is too early to say definitively if this virus will be a pandemic or if it will smother out. Science takes time. Answers don't appear faster just because people want to know. The best things to do are to practice good hygiene and pay attention to news reports. (Only pay attention to infection locations, infection rates, mortality rates, etc. Paying attention to commentary about downplaying the virus or about pandemics doesn't provide any factual information and isn't helpful.)
 

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Good visual map view of cases:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A few interesting points to me:
1) South Korea went from almost 0 to almost 5,000 cases in 1 single week.
2) Italy went from almost 0 to almost 2,000 cases in 1 single week.
3) Germany/France/Spain now all are in the 00s.

Europe having cases all over despite the fact we had no travel restrictions is concerning. Its highly likely we have tons of undiagnosed cases in healthy-feeling people right now, who are unknowingly spreading it around. I looked it up and there are 2,500 flights per day between the US and Europe.

Florida has 2 cases now. 1 traveled to Italy. The second is in a different area of the state and has had no travel. Not good.
 
Techster

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I heard on a podcast that people over 30 that smoke are most susceptible to dying from the coronavirus. That's because theirs lungs are weakened from smoking all those years, and the virus infection turns into pneumonia...which is the real killer. In China, the hardest hit demographic in terms of death from the virus is Chinese men over 30. That's because in China 80%+ of the men there smoke, while women smokers are less than 5%.

In another statistical set, the people least susceptible to contracting the virus are young children. The theory is because the common cold has many forms, and the cold itself is a form of a corona virus, kids that go to school/preschool are exposed to different (and "weaker") forms of the corona viruses, they've built up a higher immune system.

If you're a parent of a young child that came home sick many times in the last year, and you've gotten sick from them...and you don't smoke, consider yourself lucky that your risk of dying should you contract the coronavirus is less than the average person.
 
GT_EE78

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bwelbo said:
Current death rate corrected for diagnosis date is running about 4.2%. The traditional Flu is something like 0.2%. That's why people are alarmed, on top of the fact that Coronavirus seems to be significantly more contagious and for longer.Those with compromised immune systems like the elderly are still the only ones (IMHO) who really need to be ready to hunker down.
Click to expand...
Two things 1) While an epidemic is ongoing the estimates for death rate and Ro (infectiousness) are just that - estimates and can be off by an order of magnitude either way(10x more or 10x less) 2) The data may be grossly distorted(relative to a developed country that is prepared) because it is still primarily from Wuhan (they were unprepared)
2a - The chinese Gov knew about this since early Dec and ordered the info withheld (there's a link below) and that's
not necessarily a bad decision because it would have started a panic and it's likely that they were ramping up test and treatment capabilities during that time and just didn't get there in time for Wuhan.(this will be a big issue when they are called on the carpet for it - now just isn't the time) In January- Wuhan could test about 200/daily, by Feb 3 that was up to 4000/daily. In jan they had about 100 suitable beds for 8 mil people in city. They built more in Feb. Due to that delay Wuhan went ahead with a potluck dinner for about 50,ooo people and 5 mil passed thru the city during chinese new year just before the quarantine was imposed. (similarly in the US - last week there was only 1 lab for testing and diagnosis. this week there are 40, availability of test kits is ramping up quickly)
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The latest death rate published (link below) is about 0.2 % in mainland china but outside Hubei province.Hubei is much higher.Wuhan higher still. @bwelbo's rate is either whole country or maybe worldwide
This is still more than double a garden variety flu(< 0.1 % )
.
death rate differences - looks that you used the JAMA formula which seems best but other articles may use the other two formulas (link below explains them)
.
Susceptibility (link below) - "analysis of death cases, it emerged that the demographic profile was mainly male, accounting for 2/3, females accounting for 1/3, and is mainly elderly, more than 80% are elderly over 60 years old, and more than 75% had underlying diseases present such as cardiovascular and cardiovascular diseases, diabetes and, in some cases, tumor."
Note - The number of cases will always be under-reported because most are minor and will not seek a doctor or report.

Link below explains formulas,susceptibility and subdivides those for different areas in China.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

Article below regards china withholding info of outbreak .(which explains other outbreaks escaping quarantine)
https://nypost.com/2020/02/29/china...rus-in-december-ordered-cover-up-report-says/
.
Todays update https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
 

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2009, H1N1 took off in April. WHO labels as a pandemic early Summer. Hundreds of thousands die around the world. 12,000 die in the US. We didn’t announce a state of emergency until October.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Influenza_A_virus_subtype_H1N1

I don’t remember the media raking the Obama Administration over the coals about that. I don’t remember any political jibberish at all...although I may have just forgotten.
 

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bwelbo said:
Good visual map view of cases:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A few interesting points to me:
1) South Korea went from almost 0 to almost 5,000 cases in 1 single week.
2) Italy went from almost 0 to almost 2,000 cases in 1 single week.
3) Germany/France/Spain now all are in the 00s.

Europe having cases all over despite the fact we had no travel restrictions is concerning. Its highly likely we have tons of undiagnosed cases in healthy-feeling people right now, who are unknowingly spreading it around. I looked it up and there are 2,500 flights per day between the US and Europe.

Florida has 2 cases now. 1 traveled to Italy. The second is in a different area of the state and has had no travel. Not good.
Click to expand...

It’s amazing how infections and deaths have changed just since I posted it this morning. Diagnoses in Italy increased 25%, just today. We had no deaths until like yesterday, and now we have 6 dead.

We have one of the better healthcare systems in the world, and 6 of the first 50 diagnosed are now dead.
 
GT_EE78

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bwelbo said:
It’s amazing how infections and deaths have changed just since I posted it this morning. Diagnoses in Italy increased 25%, just today. We had no deaths until like yesterday, and now we have 6 dead.

We have one of the better healthcare systems in the world, and 6 of the first 50 diagnosed are now dead.
Click to expand...
That is to be expected for a while to come.It's unreasonable to use such a small data sample for mortality rate... People travelling from China have been spreading it now for three months. The world has only known about it for 6 weeks when the containment efforts started. resources for testing,diagnosis and treatment are still ramping up. They will get caught up quickly and then the stats will become more meaningful. As you pointed out earlier millions were already infected with H1N1 before it was declared an emergency in the US. They started on this one much earlier after outbreak. https://www.waynedupree.com/obama-h1n1-coronavirus/
 

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bwelbo said:
Good visual map view of cases:
https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

A few interesting points to me:
1) South Korea went from almost 0 to almost 5,000 cases in 1 single week.
2) Italy went from almost 0 to almost 2,000 cases in 1 single week.
3) Germany/France/Spain now all are in the 00s.

Europe having cases all over despite the fact we had no travel restrictions is concerning. Its highly likely we have tons of undiagnosed cases in healthy-feeling people right now, who are unknowingly spreading it around. I looked it up and there are 2,500 flights per day between the US and Europe.

Florida has 2 cases now. 1 traveled to Italy. The second is in a different area of the state and has had no travel. Not good.
Click to expand...

14 cases in greater Seattle, 5 deaths.
 
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