Second, i'm under no real illusion that CBG is going to leave GT for another job. That is just wishing thinking on our part imo. My belief of what is going to happen is that he is going to be retained and given a 1-2 yr extension (for recruiting purposes) with no change to the buyout and then if things go poorly next year we then make a move.
1) I don't think MBob is going to make a move at this point unless he's quietly amassed some huge level of booster support & monetary commitment (and if you think that's happened, I've got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you).
2) I think the most likely case is in line with what Red has described.
3) That said, in a rare case of modest disagreement, I am under a bit of real illusion BG could jump. He'd be coming off of a great record & NIT run, showing he can still coach & motivate kids to wins. He's essentially campaigned for an extension while expressing disappointment (see Jeff Schultz piece in AJC). Also, there are a number of jobs that are solid & not too big of a step down, while providing a platform for him to regain winning form. Is BG some sort of stellar coach, not at all, but I think being in over his head in the ACC far outweighs how good of a coach he actually is. I think St. Louis & Harvard (if Amaker ends up at Stanford or elsewhere) would be VERY attractive options at a salary not far off from where he is now.
ETA: Short of a Director type position, I'm not sure this would work well.