ACC Discussion 2022
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FredJacket
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I haven't independently confirmed this... but I read there has never been a 1 loss P5 conference champ left out of playoffs. Could Clemson or UNC be the 1st? I think it is actually likely.
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Incorrect. Baylor (11-1) in 2014-15 and Ohio State (12-1) in 2018-19.
Also, I will be surprised if there is even much talk about including either in this year's playoff.
uGA will be included even if they are not SEC champs. Ohio St or Michigan is the likely undefeated B1G champ. TCU is probably going to be undefeated. So, that's three of the CFP teams. The fourth is going to come from the loser of the Ohio St-Michigan game, Tennessee, or USC (if they win the PAC-12). I do not see how Clemson recovers from the ND loss and UNC has too much ground to make up.
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I agree with Oriental, the number of teams who are still really alive to get bids is quite small.
If TCU loses at some point then I think there is a real potential it could be UGA, TN, OSU, MI.
If UGA goes into the SEC CG undefeated they will get a bid no matter what happens in that game. Now if they were to be upset by either KY or GT then I think they likely would have to win the SEC Championship game to get in.
TN is the highest ranked 1 loss team. If they win their last 2 against SC and Vandy their odds at getting in are probably better than 50%. It would come down to what happens with TCU and in the OSU-MI game. TCU will fall behind a 1 loss SEC or B10 team so they only get in if they stay undefeated.
How close the OSU-MI game ends up being is important. If it is a close well played game then the loser could potential be ranked ahead of TN. As long as it is not a blowout both MI and OSU will remain in serious conversation.
USC also has 1 loss and has a shot, but they have to win out at this point.
At this point the teams that have a legit shot still are
UGA (10-0)
OSU (10-0)
MI (10-0)
TCU (10-0)
TN (9-1)
USC (9-1)
LSU (8-2, the only 2 loss team with a chance. Have to win out, beat UGA in the SEC CG and need a few others to lose).
The top 3 can potentially take a loss and still have a good shot at getting in. The next 4 would all but be eliminated with a loss.
I don't think anyone else has a legit shot at this point. OR and UCLA both were eliminated yesterday.
If TCU loses at some point then I think there is a real potential it could be UGA, TN, OSU, MI.
If UGA goes into the SEC CG undefeated they will get a bid no matter what happens in that game. Now if they were to be upset by either KY or GT then I think they likely would have to win the SEC Championship game to get in.
TN is the highest ranked 1 loss team. If they win their last 2 against SC and Vandy their odds at getting in are probably better than 50%. It would come down to what happens with TCU and in the OSU-MI game. TCU will fall behind a 1 loss SEC or B10 team so they only get in if they stay undefeated.
How close the OSU-MI game ends up being is important. If it is a close well played game then the loser could potential be ranked ahead of TN. As long as it is not a blowout both MI and OSU will remain in serious conversation.
USC also has 1 loss and has a shot, but they have to win out at this point.
At this point the teams that have a legit shot still are
UGA (10-0)
OSU (10-0)
MI (10-0)
TCU (10-0)
TN (9-1)
USC (9-1)
LSU (8-2, the only 2 loss team with a chance. Have to win out, beat UGA in the SEC CG and need a few others to lose).
The top 3 can potentially take a loss and still have a good shot at getting in. The next 4 would all but be eliminated with a loss.
I don't think anyone else has a legit shot at this point. OR and UCLA both were eliminated yesterday.
Oldgoldandwhite
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If LSU beats an undefeated GA in the championship game, two teams from the SEC will be in. They will not leave the SEC champ out.
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First, LSU beating uGA is a far fetched thought. It could happen, but I would not hold my breath.
Second, unless uGA losses to us and LSU they are in. LSU, will need tOSU and Michigan to lose, TCU to lose, and maybe Tennessee and USC (or whichever team wins out west). And, they still might not get in. They have two losses.
Third, We might start hearing about UNC with one loss before LSU. Their game Saturday against Arkansas hurt them.
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UNC only beating Wake by 2 last weekend didn't help either (or close wins over UVa, Duke, Miami, App State). But I'll be pulling for UNC against Clempy in the ACCCG.
I don't see any ACC team in top 4 unless there are a bunch of unexpected losses to the top 4 and UNC and Clempy only have one loss after the ACCCG. Kind of ironic the ACC holdout ND, beat both. Both has lost 3 others.
FredJacket
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Yeah but 1st I hope they lose to both Ga Tech & NC State.
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I think Clemson is at #7 now. For an ACC team in the playoffs, I think there need to be multiple major failures in teams 3-6. I don’t know if there’s anything that Ohio State or UGA can do to fall out of the playoffs right now other than losing their last two games.
ibeattetris
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It’s remarkable how much damage ND did to the ACC this year. They beat up everyone and then gave up wins to the likes of Marshall.
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VT edges Liberty for their first win in weeks (months?) 23-22.
Clemson crushes Miami 40-10
Notre Dame crushes BC 44-0
UVA against CC canceled
Pitt over Duke 28-26
Louisville over #24 NCST 25-10
FSU over Louisiana 49-17 (FSU can score points this season)
Clemson crushes Miami 40-10
Notre Dame crushes BC 44-0
UVA against CC canceled
Pitt over Duke 28-26
Louisville over #24 NCST 25-10
FSU over Louisiana 49-17 (FSU can score points this season)
Oldgoldandwhite
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Tennessee’s loss helped Clemson, but we hurt their SOS if they just squeeze by UNC. But USCe may have countered that argument. Looks like the pups, BIG, and a fight for 3 and 4.
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I agree mostly, but will add:
I don't think LSU be in, even if they beat uGA, because TCU and the loser of the B1G playoff, will have a much better claim. And, if Clemson wins out, they will also. Tennessee is now toast. You have to remember USCw, also.
I know the chances are so remote as to be almost laughable, but a uGA loss next week would shake up everything. There is a piece of me that would love to see the playoff skip the SEC. The wailing gnashing of teeth by ESPN would go on for months.
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Clemson played us and plays UNC. Their win over us looks a little better now. Clemson’s big problem is an ugly loss to ND.
MWBATL
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Looks to me like UGa, winner of OSU Michigan, TCU (IF they remain unbeaten) and USC (IF they win out).
IF LSU wins out, with a win over UGA and any of the last two above stumble, I think the Bayou Bengals are in. I think they were #6 in the last CFP rankings anyway, they should move up to #5 this week with UT's loss..
But my guess is we aren't done with the upsets yet.
IF LSU wins out, with a win over UGA and any of the last two above stumble, I think the Bayou Bengals are in. I think they were #6 in the last CFP rankings anyway, they should move up to #5 this week with UT's loss..
But my guess is we aren't done with the upsets yet.
Root4GT
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If LSU wins out including beating UGA in the SEC championship game they are in. Someone else (TCU or USC) will lose so it will be Ohio St/Mich winner, LSU, UGA nad take your pick on the 4th team.
Oldgoldandwhite
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I agree. No way they leave the SEC Champ out. Fair or not. Then people will cry foul having possibly 2 SEC teams in and a very good team left out. In that scenario, a couple of possible one loss teams will be on the outside looking in.
leatherneckjacket
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If LSU beats UGAG, then both will make the playoff with the Michigan v. Ohio State winner and TCU (assuming they win the Big 12). USCw and Clemson are left out in that scenario. If UGAG wins, I can see them taking both Michigan and OSU if that game is really close. Otherwise, they take USCw if they win out.