2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament - Nat'l Seed Watch

gtrower

gtrower

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Here's my stab at GT rooting interest in weekend series. This is ordered in a general approximation of importance.

ACC
Pitt @ GT...…...…...Tech needs at least a series win. Hopefully a sweep.
FSU @ UL ……..….Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
Duke @ Miami......Duke is 49th in RPI and included in our Q1 record. Need them to stay below 50. And want the better ACC seed over Miami.
UNC @ NCSU.......UNC wins help the RPI and they our the second best series win. And they can't catch us in the Coastal unless we lose the series to Pitt.
WF @ CU...…………Clemson is 38th in the RPI. Need them below 50.
ND @ BC...………….Played both. BC is 61st and within reach to get to Top 50. ND is not.
UVA @ VT...……….UVA is currently 45th and included in our Q1 record. VT is 62nd and not included. We either need UVA to win the series or VT to sweep.

OOC
Memphis @ ECU...Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
Bama @ UGA...…….Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
TCU @ TT...……...….Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
Arkansas @ A&M....Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
Vandy @ UK...………UK is currently 42nd in the RPI. If they drop out of the Top 50 it hurts TT, Arkansas, UGA Q1 records.
Auburn @ LSU...….Auburn is #20 and we have 2 wins over them. Would be nice to keep them Top 25.
Baylor @ OKSU......If either of them sweep they'll be in the discussion for a Top 8. Want a 2-1 Baylor win.
GW @ WVU...……....Our WVU win looks surprisingly good now. Be nice to keep them in the Top 25.
OSU @ Stanford.......Probably Oregon State? Tough call. Stanford solidly above us with a win and OSU out of the running, but both are about even with us if OSU wins.

I don't think any of the other series affect us enough to significantly change our RPI or national standing. That Vandy/UK series is sneakily important to us with UK having lost series to 3 of the 5 teams we're in direct competition with for a national seed. Vandy sweep would be big for us.
 
FredJacket

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MWBATL said:
On top of all that, isn't Pitt already eliminated from all post-season play? If correct, that means these are their last 3 games of the season. Let's hope they are more interested in basking in the sun than playing hard.
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For all practical purposes...yes. But Pitt seems to still be mathematically alive. If they sweep AND BC gets swept (by ND), they'll get in past BC. VT would have to win no more than 1 as well... I think.
 

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gtrower said:
Here's my stab at GT rooting interest in weekend series. This is ordered in a general approximation of importance.

ACC
Pitt @ GT...…...…...Tech needs at least a series win. Hopefully a sweep.
FSU @ UL ……..….Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
Duke @ Miami......Duke is 49th in RPI and included in our Q1 record. Need them to stay below 50. And want the better ACC seed over Miami.
UNC @ NCSU.......UNC wins help the RPI and they our the second best series win. And they can't catch us in the Coastal unless we lose the series to Pitt.
WF @ CU...…………Clemson is 38th in the RPI. Need them below 50.
ND @ BC...………….Played both. BC is 61st and within reach to get to Top 50. ND is not.
UVA @ VT...……….UVA is currently 45th and included in our Q1 record. VT is 62nd and not included. We either need UVA to win the series or VT to sweep.

OOC
Memphis @ ECU...Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
Bama @ UGA...…….Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
TCU @ TT...……...….Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
Arkansas @ A&M....Direct competition for the 6-10 seeds.
Vandy @ UK...………UK is currently 42nd in the RPI. If they drop out of the Top 50 it hurts TT, Arkansas, UGA Q1 records.
Auburn @ LSU...….Auburn is #20 and we have 2 wins over them. Would be nice to keep them Top 25.
Baylor @ OKSU......If either of them sweep they'll be in the discussion for a Top 8. Want a 2-1 Baylor win.
GW @ WVU...……....Our WVU win looks surprisingly good now. Be nice to keep them in the Top 25.
OSU @ Stanford.......Probably Oregon State? Tough call. Stanford solidly above us with a win and OSU out of the running, but both are about even with us if OSU wins.

I don't think any of the other series affect us enough to significantly change our RPI or national standing. That Vandy/UK series is sneakily important to us with UK having lost series to 3 of the 5 teams we're in direct competition with for a national seed. Vandy sweep would be big for us.
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Stanford continues to be a head scratcher. They are ranked as a top 3 team in a bunch of places, despite barely being #20 in RPI. I'd like Oregon State to win 2-1. I think that's enough to get Stanford the hell out of the discussion for a Super Regional that they certainly don't deserve right now, and it won't be enough for Oregon State (#17) to catch up to us.
 
gtrower

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Damn even UL has two wins over UK. UK is 2-9 against four of the teams we're competing with for a 5-8 National Seed. That's nuts. Would LOVE to see them drop out of the Top 50. Go Vandy.
 
gtrower

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FredJacket said:
And D1 Baseball has Tech as 7 seed with

Ole Miss
Sam Houston St
Samford

https://d1baseball.com/projections/college-baseball-projected-field-of-64-may-15/
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Just listened to their podcast. It was frustrating as they basically had GT and UL neck and neck. Discussed who would get the 5 seed for 2/3 minutes. And finally one guy said “well GT did take 2 of 3 from them in Atlanta.” And then another guy was like “well that’s pretty much just holding serve at home.” Nobody ever corrected them that the series was @UL. So they gave the nod to UL. Had they corrected themselves I think they’d have us at 5.
 
FredJacket

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gtrower said:
Just listened to their podcast. It was frustrating as they basically had GT and UL neck and neck. Discussed who would get the 6 seed for 2/3 minutes. And finally one guy said “well GT did take 2 of 3 from them in Atlanta.” And then another guy was like “well that’s pretty much just holding serve at home.” Nobody ever corrected them that the series was @UL. So they gave the nod to UL. Had they corrected themselves I think they’d have us at 6.
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That's awesome. LOL!
Clowns to the left of me... jokers to the right...
 
gtrower

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Some crazy games with GT implications still going tonight.

Vandy blew an early 9-0 lead to fall behind 10-9. Then got a 2-out hit in T8 to go ahead 11-10 after an hour delay. B8 now.

TT and TCU in the 13th right now.
 
gtrower

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TT doesn’t deserve this game. Led off B13 with a double. Next guy gets a hit and they SEND THE RUNNER. With no outs. And he gets thrown out at home. Another hit and HBP later and they have the bases loaded 1 out. Proceed to strike out LOOKING twice. How do you squander 3 hits and a HBP in extra innings?
 
gtrower

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UL down 9-3 T5
ECU up 3-2 B4
uga up 1-0 B2
Arkansas down 2-0 B2

Vandy up 7-1 T5

Not a bad day at all for us so far.
 
gtrower

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bensaysitathome said:
I don't get the impression we're competing against Arkansas for a spot. While we're Bubble national seed, Arkansas is probably locked in.
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D1B agrees with you. Personally I’d have MSU locked into a top 3 with Vandy and UCLA. And Arkansas as 4/5 pending winning the A&M series. Looks like they’ll split the first 2. If they lose I’d have GT, UGA, and maybe ECU above them. Maybe Stanford too if they win the OSU series.
 
FredJacket

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GTRambler said:
If I’m not mistaken, I believe the NCAA Committee will take into consideration the results of the conference tournament games in making the final seedings for the regionals.
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No doubt. They do & they will. I think @gtrower is simply saying the overall ACC champ (GT or Louisville...at this point) will not need to help themselves with ACCT success in order to still be a national seed. I tend to agree. The ACC will have 2 teams (max) as top 8 seeds.
 

bensaysitathome

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gtrower said:
D1B agrees with you. Personally I’d have MSU locked into a top 3 with Vandy and UCLA. And Arkansas as 4/5 pending winning the A&M series. Looks like they’ll split the first 2. If they lose I’d have GT, UGA, and maybe ECU above them. Maybe Stanford too if they win the OSU series.
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Good points, and I tend to agree. 4-8 are still being worked out, Arkansas having the inside track.

I wonder how secure Lville is. If they lose again today to FSU, and fail to make any noise in the tournament, could they fall to 9 or 10? Lots of good teams fighting for those last few spots. UCLA is a lock. SEC looking to have 4 of the top 8 with Vandy, Miss St, Arkansas, and UGA. Texas Tech is knocking on the door, ECU, us, Stanford. Limping into the end of the season isn't something a lot of teams have the luxury of doing.
 

MWBATL

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Interesting stuff.

My question is, will we even pitch CT in the ACC Tournament? Or will we rest him for the NCAA’s? I’m not sure of our exact schedule next week in Durham but CT would regularly get a week’s rest. Should mean he’s not ready for game 1 for us, and if I understand correctly, if we lose game 1 then game 2 doesn’t really matter.
 
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