2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament - Nat'l Seed Watch

[FredJacket]

Interesting stuff.

My question is, will we even pitch CT in the ACC Tournament? Or will we rest him for the NCAA’s? I’m not sure of our exact schedule next week in Durham but CT would regularly get a week’s rest. Should mean he’s not ready for game 1 for us, and if I understand correctly, if we lose game 1 then game 2 doesn’t really matter.

Pool play schedule will be set. So whether we need to win Game 1 or Game 2 will depend on opponent. We will need to beat the team in our pool that wins its Game 1.

 

[gtrower]

Good points, and I tend to agree. 4-8 are still being worked out, Arkansas having the inside track.

I wonder how secure Lville is. If they lose again today to FSU, and fail to make any noise in the tournament, could they fall to 9 or 10? Lots of good teams fighting for those last few spots. UCLA is a lock. SEC looking to have 4 of the top 8 with Vandy, Miss St, Arkansas, and UGA. Texas Tech is knocking on the door, ECU, us, Stanford. Limping into the end of the season isn't something a lot of teams have the luxury of doing.

We should honestly be above UL at this point. They’ve lost 4 series this year to UConn, Tech, @Clemson, and @UVA. We’ve lost 2 series to UCLA and @Miami.

If you take out the 3 cream puff weekend series (Brown, JMU, Bama A&M) they swept this year, they’re only 7-4. If you take out ours (WCU) we’re 10-2. With the road H2H win.

 

[MWBATL]

We should honestly be above UL at this point. They’ve lost 4 series this year to UConn, Tech, @Clemson, and @UVA. We’ve lost 2 series to UCLA and @Miami.

If you take out the 3 cream puff weekend series (Brown, JMU, Bama A&M) they swept this year, they’re only 7-4. If you take out ours (WCU) we’re 10-2. With the road H2H win.

Your lips to the committee's ears.....

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Agree, we win today, we will get a National Seed. Even if we lose the first game of the ACC tourney.

Lose today and first game of ACC tourney and it depends how others do. IMHO we have won more games against top 20 teams than any team. Plus 9 of 10 ACC series. Only loss was first one which is much better than losing last one.

That game 1 win against Pitt was epic. Spot them 6 runs with their ace who beats really good teams. We have learned how to win which is what Aaron Fitt at D1 said we'd have to do to be an Omaha contender. We have the experienced players and talent this year. The draft will probably take 5-8 starters.

The future is now. Just. Win. Today.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I’m not going to count us out just yet, even though we once again have the injury bug. Other teams do by this point too. We haven’t lost a series in over 2 months. I still like our chances.

 

[65Jacket]

Agree, we win today, we will get a National Seed. Even if we lose the first game of the ACC tourney.

Lose today and first game of ACC tourney and it depends how others do. IMHO we have won more games against top 20 teams than any team. Plus 9 of 10 ACC series. Only loss was first one which is much better than losing last one.

That game 1 win against Pitt was epic. Spot them 6 runs with their ace who beats really good teams. We have learned how to win which is what Aaron Fitt at D1 said we'd have to do to be an Omaha contender. We have the experienced players and talent this year. The draft will probably take 5-8 starters.

The future is now. Just. Win. Today.

The draft will will take English and McCann from the every day lineup and take Curry, Who else? We will be very good next year.

 

[FredJacket]

Yes. The last time we lost 2 games in a row was over a month & 20 games ago... 4/9 (@UGA) & 4/12 (@BC).

Since then 16-4... with "shortest" win streak of 3 games (twice). Do that in postseason... you advance every time.

It's been documented 15-2 in 2+ games series & the only time all year we lost a series at home was only time all year we lost 2 in a row at home (UCLA).

I like our chances in a regional (certainly will be at home). I like our chances in any super regional (& if at home all the more). Also worth noting... as a 9-16 seed, you still have decent odds to host SR...no guarentee, can happen.

 

[MWBATL]

Last time we went to Omaha, I think we locked out in the Super-Regional round (iirc). My memory says that Florida Atlantic won a Regional in an upset and was our SR opponent. So, we got to host AND play a weaker opponent which is a twofer. So, one CAN get lucky in the post-season....

 

[MWBATL]

[QUOTE="FredJacket, post: 580839, member: 2843"Since then 16-4... with "shortest" win streak of 3 games (twice). Do that in postseason... you advance every time.[/QUOTE]

Post-season opposition should be *much* tougher than regular season opponents, so records such as that don't mean that much as predictors. Last time we went to Omaha we had been 50-0 in games where we led after 7 innings (iirc). In Omaha, we went 0-2 in that same category.

 

[THWG]

Last time we went to Omaha, I think we locked out in the Super-Regional round (iirc). My memory says that Florida Atlantic won a Regional in an upset and was our SR opponent. So, we got to host AND play a weaker opponent which is a twofer. So, one CAN get lucky in the post-season....

We played the College of Charleston.

 

[MWBATL]

We played the College of Charleston.

Thanks. I knew it was one of those non P5 schools....

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Top 15 in RPI......what are their records in 2+ game series this season (caveat - this is really hard to count):
1) UCLA: 15-0
2) Vanderbilt: 13-2
3) Georgia: 15-3-1
4) Mississippi State: 11-2
5) East Carolina: 13-1
6) Arkansas: 12-3-1
7) Louisville: 13-4
8) Oklahoma State: 10-4-1
9) Texas Tech: 14-2-1
10) Georgia Tech: 15-2
11) Tennessee: 9-5-1
12) Oregon State: 10-3-3
13) UC Santa Barbara: 14-1-3
14) Texas A&M: 9-4-2
15) Stanford: 11-1-1

 

[crl85]

Top 15 in RPI......what are their records in 2+ game series this season (caveat - this is really hard to count):
1) UCLA: 15-0
2) Vanderbilt: 13-2
3) Georgia: 15-3-1
4) Mississippi State: 11-2
5) East Carolina: 13-1
6) Arkansas: 12-3-1
7) Louisville: 13-4
8) Oklahoma State: 10-4-1
9) Texas Tech: 14-2-1
10) Georgia Tech: 15-2
11) Tennessee: 9-5-1
12) Oregon State: 10-3-3
13) UC Santa Barbara: 14-1-3
14) Texas A&M: 9-4-2
15) Stanford: 11-1-1

This is super. Thanks for putting together.

Question ab 2 game series. We like including them bc we beat auburn, but does the committee care?

 

[crl85]

Top 15 in RPI......what are their records in 2+ game series this season (caveat - this is really hard to count):
1) UCLA: 15-0
2) Vanderbilt: 13-2
3) Georgia: 15-3-1
4) Mississippi State: 11-2
5) East Carolina: 13-1
6) Arkansas: 12-3-1
7) Louisville: 13-4
8) Oklahoma State: 10-4-1
9) Texas Tech: 14-2-1
10) Georgia Tech: 15-2
11) Tennessee: 9-5-1
12) Oregon State: 10-3-3
13) UC Santa Barbara: 14-1-3
14) Texas A&M: 9-4-2
15) Stanford: 11-1-1

ECU split a 2 gamer with duke

 

[Deleted member 2897]

This is super. Thanks for putting together.

Question ab 2 game series. We like including them bc we beat auburn, but does the committee care?

I don't know. Georgia played many of these multi-game series (19), while some played 13-14. Look at how many had 3 ties - tons of teams out there play 2-game series and 1-offs instead of 3-game series.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

ECU split a 2 gamer with duke

Yep, I missed that. Its really hard to count when you see 2 and 3 game series that are split across months. I doubt that is the last error we find too.

 

[gtrower]

This is super. Thanks for putting together.

Question ab 2 game series. We like including them bc we beat auburn, but does the committee care?

Midweek games arent really considered series. I wouldn’t say we played a series with uga this year in the same context as we played a series with UCLA.

Committee values weekend series over midweek games. But they also value RPI which doesn’t distinguish between the two.

 

[MWBATL]

Georgia weekend pitching is awesome, and MUCH better than ours right now. With Hurter and Curry, we'd be a good match for them in a 3 game series. Without them....um.....

 

[FredJacket]

D1 Baseball still has Ga Tech in with National seed #8.

https://d1baseball.com/projections/college-baseball-projected-field-of-64-may-21/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

D1 Baseball still has Ga Tech in with National seed #8.

https://d1baseball.com/projections/college-baseball-projected-field-of-64-may-21/

When I read articles like that one, I think we have a good shot. Those folks are looking at metrics, but backing them up with eyeball tests. For example, East Carolina is a great baseball team, but they played like half the Q1 games that everyone around them did. If you have a group of teams with largely the same record, its stuff like that which will make the difference. And you can tell they're also looking at series records and not just overall record.

I know Georgia, Mississippi State, and Arkansas are good teams. But their records are largely the same as everyone in this group because they played a bunch of easy teams at home. Most of them barely have aa 0.500 record on the road, and their non-conference strength of schedules are close to #200. That is horrid. All our records and conference records are within about 1 game. Mississippi State is 25-1 against a #192 non-conference strength of schedule. If we only scheduled Mercer, Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Kennessaw State and so on at home, we could be 25-1 out of conference too. We'd be 44-12.