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2019 NCAA Baseball Tournament - Nat'l Seed Watch

Discussion in 'Georgia Tech Baseball' started by FredJacket, Apr 28, 2019.

  1. FredJacket

    FredJacket Helluva Engineer

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    Wanted to start "scoreboard" or RPI watch thread as the Jackets find themselves in position to host both a regional & possibly a super regional (or top 8 seed)

    One thing getting a lot of attention (besides Tech's situation) on various threads is what is happening with UGA.

    I'll never pull for them... but I would be fine if we didn't see them in our regional or super regional. Not scared of them... just would rather see other teams in Atlanta than those clowns.
     
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  2. bensaysitathome

    bensaysitathome Ramblin' Wreck

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    I think UGA could lose out and still host a regional. Probably close to the same for us too. We won't share a regional.
     
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  3. GTNavyNuke

    GTNavyNuke Helluva Engineer Featured Member

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    This post really tempts Lucy.

    As to ugag, I just want them to lose enough to not even host. Barring that we get Super at 8 and they are 9.

    Go Miss State!
     
  4. psjacket

    psjacket Jolly Good Fellow

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    Scared money doesn't win at poker. I wouldn't mind a 8 vs 9 with them. Especially if we're 8. I think this group of JJ's have what it takes. That would be fun and raise the stakes a bit.
     
  5. crl85

    crl85 Helluva Engineer

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    Yea piss on em. I’d be happy to have their season end in Atlanta.
     
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  6. GTRambler

    GTRambler Helluva Engineer

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    Over in Starkville today, the Bulldogs won 6-5 to complete their 3-game sweep over the Bulldogs.
     
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  7. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    Yet Georgia remains #4 in RPI, right where they were before losing out last week. #ItJustMeansMore

    And there again is your RPI game - play almost 20 bottom quadrant teams to juice your record, then it doesn’t matter what you do in the real games.
     
  8. FredJacket

    FredJacket Helluva Engineer

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    As of this morning.... Tech is #9 in RPI w 3rd toughest Strength of Schedule (SOS).

    Interesting that 2 teams Tech beat (#4 UGA and #7 Louisville) are ahead in those rankings AND have easier schedules (slightly).

    I'd like to think if selection were today... Ga Tech would be in top 8 seeding-wise.
     
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  9. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    No formula will ever be better than an eyeball test. But yea, with Georgia especially you can see the flaws on display easily. 33-12 vs 30-14. That looks perfect for a #4 vs #9. Or at least seems reasonable for the different rankings. But then you see a #3 SOS for us and their 16 bottom quadrant games versus our 7. It looks to me like there is no penalty for a weak schedule. I know it’s not that easy, because other teams play into the ranking. But still. I’d never rank them #4 in the country with 12 losses and almost 40% of their games against poor teams.
     
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  10. gtrower

    gtrower Helluva Engineer

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    I expect us to be #9 in most polls this week. Think we could have made a big move up to 6/7 if we had held onto the lead Sunday.

    1. UCLA
    2. Vandy
    3. Oregon State
    4. MSU
    5. Stanford
    6. Arkansas
    7. Louisville
    8. UGA
    9. GT
    10. ECU
     
  11. FredJacket

    FredJacket Helluva Engineer

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    Tech has put itself in position to be a top 8 seed. I'd consider sweeping WCU sort of "holding serve"... not a bad thing. You can only win the next game on schedule. Now is time to really make some hay, though. 7 games remaining. Go 6-1 & it could lock up a top 8 seed (regardless who the loss is to, I think).

    That'd be 14-2 since losing to open VT series & most likely Coastal champ unless Miami and/or UNC run table to finish.

    If it turns out to be a 5-2 finish or worse... will need to climb back into discussion with a run in ACCT.
     
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  12. crut

    crut Helluva Engineer

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    My hope is a series win vs Duke, and a sweep vs. Pitt. This, along with a win vs. Mercer, probably puts us close or in the Top 5
     
  13. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    As a reminder, we are tied with UNC for #1 Coastal, but own the tiebreaker. Miami is 1 game back, and owns the tiebreaker over us.

    So if we go 4-2 against Duke/Pitt, either (or both) UNC and Miami would have to go 5-1 to finish ahead of us. (Ignoring some of the crazy 3-way tie rules for a minute.)

    UNC finishes @Pitt (sweep is not a gimme up there on the road) and then home vs NC State. That NC State matchup is not what it was going to be a few weeks ago. But still, the odds of them going 5-1 with that schedule, I'd put less than 50/50.

    Miami finishes @Wake Forest and home vs Duke. That also seems like too tough a 6 game stretch to see a 5-1 finish. I'd put that less than 50/50.

    Of course, if we go 5-1, then it would require either (or both) of UNC and Miami to finish with 2 sweeps.

    We won't catch Louisville overall in the ACC. (I can't see them going 1-2 and 1-2 against @Virginia and FSU.) . < 5% chance.

    But after that, overall in the ACC, its Florida State at 16-11, 2 losses ahead of us, and with only @ Louisville left. They could finish with 16 wins, probably 50/50 at 17 wins, and a small chance of 18 wins. But in any case, even a 4-2 finish puts us ahead of them at the end.

    NC State is 14-10. So to avoid ties, a 4-2 finish by us would require a 5-1 finish by them as well. They finish home vs Clemson and @UNC. Hard to see a 5-1 finish there.

    CONCLUSION:
    4-2 ACC finish probably puts us at a greater than 50/50 chance of being the #2 ACC seed overall and Coastal Champion.
    5-1 ACC finish and I'd put it at greater than 95% chance.
     
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  14. gtrower

    gtrower Helluva Engineer

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    There's so many teams grouped around the 5-11 spots that i think a weekend series loss this week would put us on the outside looking in for a Seed. Because even sweeping 4 games against Mercer/Pitt isn't gonna be enough to jump teams ahead of us. We'd need an ACCT run at that point. We're probably sitting between 7-10 in most peoples' minds right now. Hard to tell how much X/Hurter play into their decision.

    7-0 and we're a lock. 21-9 in conference. Top 5 seed heading into the ACCT.
    6-1 and we're sitting pretty. Confident about a Top 8 seed.
    5-2 with two weekend series wins and I think we're still good. That would put us 11-2 in weekend series having won 10 in a row. Need to advance in the ACCT to solidify.
    5-2 with a weekend series loss and I think we're sitting around 10 entering the ACCT. Would have some work to do.
    4-3 and we're solidly out. Our SOS in these 7 games just isn't good enough to absorb 3 losses. Would need some havoc from teams around us in the polls.
    3-4 and we'd need to win the ACCT. And that might not be enough. Hosting a regional would start to be called into question.
     
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  15. gtrower

    gtrower Helluva Engineer

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    The first 8 batters reached base for Memphis against #5 MSU. Up 7-0 in the 1st. Everything helps.
     
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  16. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    MSU has the almost #200 non-conference RPI. Memphis is #114 RPI. Losing at home will hurt a lot, and it should. They’ve had a pitiful OOC schedule. But sadly, if I had to wager, I’d say MSU wins 15-11 or something.
     
  17. bensaysitathome

    bensaysitathome Ramblin' Wreck

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    Better yet, dwags down 7-2 in the 4th.
     
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  18. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    UCLA lost to an 11-34 team yesterday so Vandy took over #1. dwags are vs a turrble Jax St team, so that will hurt if it sticks, as will MSU. #6 ECU is about to lose to UNC. Louisville lost to Vandy last night. Miami is about to lose to UCF. Lots of teams around us in RPI could back up tonight.
     
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  19. MWBATL

    MWBATL Helluva Engineer

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    Pretty good guess. MSU came back to win 10-9. and the Dwags might win as well, 8- 8 now heading into extra innings as Jax State got a 2 out full count HR to tie the game in the ninth. Miami *almost* came back as well, but fell just short losing 7-8 to UCF.

    By the way, FSU also lost on the road to Stetson (and got no-hit in the process, 1-0)...can they possibly still sneak into the NCAA's?
     
  20. gtrower

    gtrower Helluva Engineer

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    FSU wouldn’t be “sneaking” in if the season ended today. They’d be in.

    UNC had a late rally that fell short too.
     

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