UVA game thoughts

[Lotta Booze]

If we look at their DFEI numbers they are closest in comparison to Wake. I think with Dontae establishing the running game, really using Singleton as a weapon and using King's legs in opportune moments we can exceed what we did at Wake. And we're averaging 31 pts per game so we should hit that.

I see this as a 31-24 win for GT

 

[stinger78]

Dontae is listed as 1a on this week's depth chart, as he has been pretty much the whole season. I think we'll see all three, but I suspect that Dontae will have the chance to get the lion's share of the carries.

 

[yeti92]

Our loss to Bowling Green is way worse than any of UVAs losses and it is not close.

We'll have to agree to disagree. It looked extremely bad at the time yes, but Bowling Green has continued to win and is 5-4 at this point and will likely end up 7-5 for the season. Maryland, one of the two teams that stomped UVA, is 5-3 currently, but they have not beaten any FBS team that has a record better than 2-6 and will likely not win a game the rest of the season. Is Maryland better than Bowling Green, probably yes, but not significantly better, and the beating they put on UVA was much greater than Bowling Green put on us.

 

[bobongo]

Dontae is listed as 1a on this week's depth chart, as he has been pretty much the whole season. I think we'll see all three, but I suspect that Dontae will have the chance to get the lion's share of the carries.

Dontae is the factor that puts us over the top in Charlottesville.

 

[stinger78]

Dontae is the factor that puts us over the top in Charlottesville.

He certainly can be. Hopefully he shows up like he did last Saturday.

 

[MACHETE]

We'll have to agree to disagree. It looked extremely bad at the time yes, but Bowling Green has continued to win and is 5-4 at this point and will likely end up 7-5 for the season. Maryland, one of the two teams that stomped UVA, is 5-3 currently, but they have not beaten any FBS team that has a record better than 2-6 and will likely not win a game the rest of the season. Is Maryland better than Bowling Green, probably yes, but not significantly better, and the beating they put on UVA was much greater than Bowling Green put on us.

Let's not rationalize the loss to BG, it was epically bad.

 

[bucknellbison31]

We'll have to agree to disagree. It looked extremely bad at the time yes, but Bowling Green has continued to win and is 5-4 at this point and will likely end up 7-5 for the season. Maryland, one of the two teams that stomped UVA, is 5-3 currently, but they have not beaten any FBS team that has a record better than 2-6 and will likely not win a game the rest of the season. Is Maryland better than Bowling Green, probably yes, but not significantly better, and the beating they put on UVA was much greater than Bowling Green put on us.

Also, let's keep in mind that the Hoos were in real danger of losing at home to William & Mary. Is this UVA team getting better? Sure, but they still aren't very good. We should be able to beat them simply outscoring them. Again, I'm not pre-declaring this a victory, but let's not act like we aren't the better team here.

 

[Techster]

Whoever does “Talent Composite” need to lose their job. No chance GT an average P5 team in talent. Just watch our defense and it’s obvious that side of the ball is talent deficient across the board.

Predicting how GT will play is impossible this year. We can play very well and very bad within the same half much less from game to game. UVA has been much more consistent than GT. Their high isn’t as high as GT’s high but their low is nowhere near as low as GT’s low.

Hope E + R = O and the O is good. Key had the Long Snapper explain that. Event + Response = Outcome. Only at GT

Talent composite is just a metric. I think the concern with GT is that we have some higher ranked guys, but the allocation of talent isn't spread evenly among the position groups. There's probably also a big gap between our highest rated players versus our lowest rated players. UNC, who we just beat, has a composite talent ranking of #17. I think we'll find that they have more stars on their roster, and their lowest ranked guys aren't too far off from their highest rated guys.

This is why I always preach talent composite in tiers, and teams that are within 2 tiers have similar talent levels. GT is within 2 tiers of UNC, and we saw that play out on the field when were able to match them in firepower on the offensive side, and our defense was just as good (or bad) as theirs.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Dontae is listed as 1a on this week's depth chart, as he has been pretty much the whole season. I think we'll see all three, but I suspect that Dontae will have the chance to get the lion's share of the carries.

I’ve been wishing to see Dontae early in game to wear down defense, then put Haynes in to take advantage of defenders who’ve gotten a half step slower.

 

[iceeater1969]

Strength up the middle.

ol has had issues with strength up the middle. Center needed help with war daddy nt.

UVA has senior DT, NT, and all are 300 lb.

Coach Key says they keep things in front of them and let the lb and safeties fill the gaps.

If we come out and try to show we are tough and run up the middle, we are playing to their strength.

I think Key and buster have decided to go around the mountain until our ol men get stronger.

The UNC game plan of attacking around the edges will wear out the 3 senior down linemen.

Hopefully we see some effort at sliding the pocket and getting king to get them chasing him.

When we see back up down linemen - 96 r sophomore, 91 freshman,18 r sophomore; then we can mix it up in the middle.

 

[yeti92]

Also, let's keep in mind that the Hoos were in real danger of losing at home to William & Mary.

I hadn't looked at it that closely until now, but UVA definitely struggled with them for most of the game, only taking the lead with 7 seconds to go in the 2nd quarter and only scoring once more.

Let's not rationalize the loss to BG, it was epically bad.

The loss to Citadel in 2019 was epically bad, that was a 6-6 FCS program at a military school running the same offense we had run for 11 years prior. The loss to BG doesn't come close to that, despite being a really bad loss.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

We'll have to agree to disagree. It looked extremely bad at the time yes, but Bowling Green has continued to win and is 5-4 at this point and will likely end up 7-5 for the season. Maryland, one of the two teams that stomped UVA, is 5-3 currently, but they have not beaten any FBS team that has a record better than 2-6 and will likely not win a game the rest of the season. Is Maryland better than Bowling Green, probably yes, but not significantly better, and the beating they put on UVA was much greater than Bowling Green put on us.

Yes, Maryland is much better than Bowling Green by almost every rating system. Anyone who believes that the UVAs loss (without their starting QB) to Maryland is worse than our loss to BG is delusional. Comparing BG's record to Maryland's is idiotic. Maryland is in a far superior conference.

 

[leatherneckjacket]

I hadn't looked at it that closely until now, but UVA definitely struggled with them for most of the game, only taking the lead with 7 seconds to go in the 2nd quarter and only scoring once more.


The loss to Citadel in 2019 was epically bad, that was a 6-6 FCS program at a military school running the same offense we had run for 11 years prior. The loss to BG doesn't come close to that, despite being a really bad loss.

Both were really bad losses. It is not mutually exclusive.

 

[jeffgt14]

We have a better shot at beating Clemson than UVA this week.

 

[yeti92]

Yes, Maryland is much better than Bowling Green by almost every rating system. Anyone who believes that the UVAs loss (without their starting QB) to Maryland is worse than our loss to BG is delusional. Comparing BG's record to Maryland's is idiotic. Maryland is in a far superior conference.

Maryland's best win is over a 2-6 team, and they've lost to teams that are currently 4-4 and 3-5. OSU is the only team they've played with a winning record. They are currently still overrated from beating a bunch of really bad teams early in the season, but their ranking will continue to fall as they likely don't win another game the rest of the way and miss a bowl game. Yes they are in a better conference, but that doesn't automatically make them way better.

Bowling Green's worst loss is to 6-3 Ohio. Their other losses are to undefeated Liberty, undefeated Michigan, and a 7-2 Miami(OH). That's a combined record of 29-5. And as I said previously, they are likely to continue winning, moving up the rankings, and make a bowl game.

The gap between these two teams is not nearly as big as you want to believe.

It's a shame that arguing your position devolved to calling me delusional and idiotic. Some would say that's poor form...

 

[yeti92]

Both were really bad losses. It is not mutually exclusive.

Bowling Green would wipe the floor with that Citadel team. The gap between those two teams is much bigger than the gap between BG and Maryland.

 

[roadkill]

I doubt this will settle the argument, but there is room for some middle ground here and I believe both these things are true:
1. As @leatherneckjacket stated, Maryland is much better than BG by most rating systems if you focus on those with the most meaningful data at this point in the season.
2. The gap between them is not that significant if you look strictly at who they beat or lost to.

The first 3 rating systems have more complex (and less transparent) methodologies and are generally viewed as good yardsticks throughout the season. The last two are based strictly on wins and losses with SoS computed accordingly. The latter systems make no sense at the beginning of the season but usually converge on an accurate alignment with the final polls. I included UVA and GT for reference.

	BG	Maryland	UVA	GT
Power Rankings Guru	102	39	86	73
FEI	98	31	70	67
ESPN Power Index	100	32	80	63
CPI	65	66	108	57
Colley	72	59	101	56

 

[BleedGoldNWhite21]

Maryland's best win is over a 2-6 team, and they've lost to teams that are currently 4-4 and 3-5. OSU is the only team they've played with a winning record. They are currently still overrated from beating a bunch of really bad teams early in the season, but their ranking will continue to fall as they likely don't win another game the rest of the way and miss a bowl game. Yes they are in a better conference, but that doesn't automatically make them way better.

Bowling Green's worst loss is to 6-3 Ohio. Their other losses are to undefeated Liberty, undefeated Michigan, and a 7-2 Miami(OH). That's a combined record of 29-5. And as I said previously, they are likely to continue winning, moving up the rankings, and make a bowl game.

The gap between these two teams is not nearly as big as you want to believe.

It's a shame that arguing your position devolved to calling me delusional and idiotic. Some would say that's poor form...

Are we really trying to say a blow out loss at home to a G5 team is not worst than a blow out loss to a P5 team? Bless your heart.

 

[roadkill]

Are we really trying to say a blow out loss at home to a G5 team is not worst than a blow out loss to a P5 team? Bless your heart.

"The gap between these two teams is not nearly as big as you want to believe." =/= "not worst". Your post distorts what @yeti92 said and comes across as trolling. You can do better.

 

[roadkill]

My thoughts on the UVA game are that our offense is going to need to overcome our defensive deficiencies in order to win. If Singleton and Smith both play and we continue to protect King, I like our chances. UVA has not shown that their offense can put up a lot of points, but then again, they probably haven’t played a defense as bad as ours. This game may ultimately come down to whoever wins the turnover margin.