Toughest ACC non-conference schedule: GT of course

[Root4GT]

What does a Florida national championship in 2007 have to do with Florida in 2023 though? Florida has had losing records 3 of the last 6 years. Auburn has had losing records the last two years. LSU had a losing season in 2021 and was 5-5 in 2020. Have these teams been good in the past, yea, some of them like LSU are consistently good. That doesn't make them automatically good going forward regardless of results, but their losses damage their reputations far less and receive far more excuses than equivalent teams from other conferences.

So you are clear, because you seem confused, I think the SEC is the strongest conference at the top and has been for a while. They routinely have 2-3 teams that are very very good, which is more than any other conferences usually have. But the rest of their conference in any given year is comparable to anyone else outside the SEC but gets hyped as being super tough purely by association with those top few teams when it's not the case.

So what and who cares about the bottom 5-6 teams in any conference. That so many different SEC teams win NCs really matters. It shows how deep the conference really is that different teams go on great runs. Only Alabama has had the sustained run but 4 other teams have had their runs and are fully capable of doing so again. Saban has made it harder but as UGA has proven it is possible to top Alabama and then win the NC.

This year Bama, UGA and LSU are all reasonable picks to make the CFP. They all won’t of course. The B1G has 2 and the ACC has maybe 1. The Big 12, likely none.

It’s rinse and repeat every year. Must be tough with the SEC living in so many peoples heads who are GT fans.

I never cheer for an SEC team against any OOC opponent. I recognize they are much better thru the top 1/3rd of their conference than any other conference. Again no one cares about the bottom 1/3rd See GT the past 4 years.

 

[slugboy]

I believe @takethepoints' basic premise here, which I agree with in principle if not in specifics, is that we should attempt to control what is controllable about our schedule in terms of selecting opponents during this time frame when we are rebuilding the program. I don't have data, but it would be interesting to see how many other P5 programs routinely schedule 2 P5 opponents as their OOC games. I suspect there are many that do not.
The ACC has given us (or perhaps we selected) Clemson as one of our 3 permanent rival games. We only have 3 OOC choices after UGA. Typically we have a home and away against a P5, usually a G5 that lately has also been home and away, and an FCS home game. So the only wiggle room we might have is the second P5. I happen to think that our best recovery plan is, if possible, to schedule let's say another G5 team in lieu of our second P5 until we can ramp up our W/L ratio, build confidence, go bowling, etc, etc. For those who say we should schedule tougher teams to build our SoS, iron sharpens iron, and so forth - we've been doing that. How do you like the results?
I hope Key proves me wrong and we go 15-0 this year. But as I said before, hope is not a plan.

Here are the 10 worst Power Five teams, per ESPN's FPI:

1. Colorado
2. Rutgers
3. Indiana
4. Boston College
5. Vanderbilt
6. Virginia
7. Stanford
8. Kansas
9. Northwestern
10. Georgia Tech

Vespidae has a point, but it’s worse than it looks. Like you said, roadkill, we have flexibility with one FBS game a year—maybe two. Because of the ACC contract with Notre Dame, sometimes one of our games is Notre Dame. We can count one FCS game towards bowl eligibility, and only one. The other games have to come from FBS.

From 2007 through 2018, we stayed generally in the top half of FBS teams, and sometimes really good. We were reliably a solid team. The last four years, we were #100, #101, #97, and #92. When you’re at that level, you’re not scheduling a win in FBS, someone else is scheduling you as a win in FBS. We had a game against Northern Illinois in 2021 and lost.

From 2019 on, we were looking up at most of the G5 teams. I don’t care how “bare the cupboard” was, we tumbled massively under Collins.

There are only 131 FBS teams. We arguably didn’t have any reliable wins under Collins, even against the bottom 30 teams, but we would need to schedule Akron or UMASS or Rice and outbid the other teams trying to schedule them.

Far right column is our strength of schedule. While strength of schedule is a problem, having the #112 offense and possibly the worst special teams is a bigger problem.

Season​	Rec​	FBS​	FEI​	Rk​	OFEI​	Rk​	DFEI​	Rk​		ELS​	Rk​
2007​	7-6​	6-6​	.14​	52​	-.51​	67​	.63​	50​		.71​	51​
2008​	9-4​	7-4​	.32​	30​	-.03​	32​	.69​	45​		.53​	72​
2009​	11-3​	10-3​	.63​	12​	.92​	2​	.15​	75​		1.05​	25​
2010​	6-7​	5-7​	-.05​	62​	-.31​	62​	.08​	74​		.72​	70​
2011​	8-5​	7-5​	.19​	42​	.51​	13​	.02​	76​		.33​	91​
2012​	7-7​	6-7​	.21​	47​	.65​	14​	.08​	68​		1.01​	41​
2013​	7-6​	5-6​	.33​	36​	.25​	32​	.35​	61​		.71​	68​
2014​	11-3​	10-3​	.79​	11​	1.28​	2​	.18​	63​		1.16​	32​
2015​	3-9​	2-9​	.14​	56​	-.44​	78​	.45​	52​		1.08​	18​
2016​	9-4​	8-4​	.30​	37​	.43​	29​	.06​	67​		.92​	44​
2017​	5-6​	4-6​	.26​	39​	.40​	25​	.49​	41​		1.56​	20​
2018​	7-6​	6-6​	.11​	56​	.52​	18​	-.44​	103​		1.52​	19​
2019​	3-9​	3-8​	-.44​	100​	-.60​	97​	-.40​	101​		1.24​	37​
2020​	3-7​	3-7​	-.43​	101​	-.51​	92​	-.29​	92​		.65​	39​
2021​	3-9​	2-9​	-.39​	97​	-.39​	76​	-.62​	112​		1.34​	21​
2022​	5-7​	4-7​	-.33​	92​	-.92​	112​	.44​	41​		1.45​	25​

 

[yeti92]

Here are the 10 worst Power Five teams, per ESPN's FPI:

1. Colorado
2. Rutgers
3. Indiana
4. Boston College
5. Vanderbilt
6. Virginia
7. Stanford
8. Kansas
9. Northwestern
10. Georgia Tech

Which is silly. We finished 5-7 overall and 4-4 under the new head coach as well as 4-4 in conference with multiple wins over ranked teams, but are 65 overall according to FPI.

We beat VT head to head at their house and they ended with a 3-8 record, but somehow rated better than us? 63 overall

Iowa State ended 4-8 and 1-8 in their conference, but somehow rated better than us? They sit at 43 overall

Michigan State was 5-7 and 3-6 in conference. 31 overall

Nebraska was 4-8 and 3-6 in conference. Sits at 52.

Cal ended 4-8, 2-7 in conference. Sits at 51.

Arizona State was 3-9 and 2-7 in conference. Sits at 64

Auburn and A&M both went 5-7 and 2-6 in conference. Auburn sits at 39 overall, while A&M is at 19!

Seems to me there are another 5-8 teams that should be on that list before us.

 

[AugustaSwarm]

So, playing uga and then a bunch of cupcakes does nothing for our coffers from ticket sales. However, there is a logic to playing 3 OOC cupcakes. If we can go 5-3 in the ACC or 6-2 and then 3-4 OCC wins (if we occasionally bump off the mutts), then we’re looking at 8-9-10 wins season over season. That means bowl games. That means recruiting fodder. That means winning recruiting wars because kids want to play for winners. It becomes a circle. We start winning games and kids want to come here. That improves our talent, which improves our team. Then we get to 10-11 wins and ACCCG. That means more positive exposure. Then we get to a National level. As long as there is continuity in coaching leadership, that will work.

The alternative is to take on all comers and use that on the recruiting trail. We’ll coach you up and put you on a stage with the best out there. You’ll have an opportunity to play significant snaps against the best out there and show what you have.

We haven’t been too successful with the latter.

Don't forget the $$$ involved with bowl games. For a cash strapped program like ours, that cash infusion is sorely needed.

 

[Vespidae]

Which is silly. We finished 5-7 overall and 4-4 under the new head coach as well as 4-4 in conference with multiple wins over ranked teams, but are 65 overall according to FPI.

We beat VT head to head at their house and they ended with a 3-8 record, but somehow rated better than us? 63 overall

Iowa State ended 4-8 and 1-8 in their conference, but somehow rated better than us? They sit at 43 overall

Michigan State was 5-7 and 3-6 in conference. 31 overall

Nebraska was 4-8 and 3-6 in conference. Sits at 52.

Cal ended 4-8, 2-7 in conference. Sits at 51.

Arizona State was 3-9 and 2-7 in conference. Sits at 64

Auburn and A&M both went 5-7 and 2-6 in conference. Auburn sits at 39 overall, while A&M is at 19!

Seems to me there are another 5-8 teams that should be on that list before us.

Out of 131 teams, you’re quibbling over being ranked 113 vs 121?

The fact is, we aren’t very good. We have to at least best weak sisters in our own conference. If we can’t beat Boston College and UVA, I don’t know what to tell you.

 

[AugustaSwarm]

Seems to me there are another 5-8 teams that should be on that list before us.

Thems the brakes, boys. The fact that we're even in the discussion is the problem. We can pick nits about what rank we are, but the national perception is that we're in the discussion for being on the poo-poo list, and we earned it.

Over the last few years, we've lost to multiple "cupcake" teams. That's how you fight your way onto that list. We earned it, let's own it, fix it, and move the eff on.

 

[yeti92]

Out of 131 teams, you’re quibbling over being ranked 113 vs 121?

We are neither ranked 113 or 121, so no.

 

[Vespidae]

We are neither ranked 113 or 121, so no.

Isn't that what you said? If we're 10th worst out of 131, that makes us 121st. Or in that vicinity. Suggesting there are 5 to 8 worse teams seems immaterial.

 

[slugboy]

We are neither ranked 113 or 121, so no.

It depends on which ranking it is. FEI “liked” our defense, so we were #92, which was up a good bit from last year. ESPN’s FPI had us at #80 last year. There are a bunch where we were ranked lower.

I don’t think any would have us down at 121, but BC, GT, VT, and UVA were all looking up at a lot of G5 schools.

There is a tier of teams like UMASS and Akron. There’s another tier just better than that, and we were there.

Thems the brakes, boys. The fact that we're even in the discussion is the problem. We can pick nits about what rank we are, but the national perception is that we're in the discussion for being on the poo-poo list, and we earned it.

Over the last few years, we've lost to multiple "cupcake" teams. That's how you fight your way onto that list. We earned it, let's own it, fix it, and move the eff on.

I agree with this take.

 

[yeti92]

Isn't that what you said? If we're 10th worst out of 131, that makes us 121st. Or in that vicinity. Suggesting there are 5 to 8 worse teams seems immaterial.

No it's not. You said we were 10th worst out of P5 teams, but there are not 131 P5 teams, there are 65.

 

[Vespidae]

No it's not. You said we were 10th worst out of P5 teams, but there are not 131 P5 teams, there are 65.

My mistake. D1. Shouldn't text while driving ️

 

[roadkill]

Vespidae has a point, but it’s worse than it looks. Like you said, roadkill, we have flexibility with one FBS game a year—maybe two. Because of the ACC contract with Notre Dame, sometimes one of our games is Notre Dame. We can count one FCS game towards bowl eligibility, and only one. The other games have to come from FBS.

From 2007 through 2018, we stayed generally in the top half of FBS teams, and sometimes really good. We were reliably a solid team. The last four years, we were #100, #101, #97, and #92. When you’re at that level, you’re not scheduling a win in FBS, someone else is scheduling you as a win in FBS. We had a game against Northern Illinois in 2021 and lost.

From 2019 on, we were looking up at most of the G5 teams. I don’t care how “bare the cupboard” was, we tumbled massively under Collins.

There are only 131 FBS teams. We arguably didn’t have any reliable wins under Collins, even against the bottom 30 teams, but we would need to schedule Akron or UMASS or Rice and outbid the other teams trying to schedule them.

Far right column is our strength of schedule. While strength of schedule is a problem, having the #112 offense and possibly the worst special teams is a bigger problem.

Season​	Rec​	FBS​	FEI​	Rk​	OFEI​	Rk​	DFEI​	Rk​		ELS​	Rk​
2007​	7-6​	6-6​	.14​	52​	-.51​	67​	.63​	50​		.71​	51​
2008​	9-4​	7-4​	.32​	30​	-.03​	32​	.69​	45​		.53​	72​
2009​	11-3​	10-3​	.63​	12​	.92​	2​	.15​	75​		1.05​	25​
2010​	6-7​	5-7​	-.05​	62​	-.31​	62​	.08​	74​		.72​	70​
2011​	8-5​	7-5​	.19​	42​	.51​	13​	.02​	76​		.33​	91​
2012​	7-7​	6-7​	.21​	47​	.65​	14​	.08​	68​		1.01​	41​
2013​	7-6​	5-6​	.33​	36​	.25​	32​	.35​	61​		.71​	68​
2014​	11-3​	10-3​	.79​	11​	1.28​	2​	.18​	63​		1.16​	32​
2015​	3-9​	2-9​	.14​	56​	-.44​	78​	.45​	52​		1.08​	18​
2016​	9-4​	8-4​	.30​	37​	.43​	29​	.06​	67​		.92​	44​
2017​	5-6​	4-6​	.26​	39​	.40​	25​	.49​	41​		1.56​	20​
2018​	7-6​	6-6​	.11​	56​	.52​	18​	-.44​	103​		1.52​	19​
2019​	3-9​	3-8​	-.44​	100​	-.60​	97​	-.40​	101​		1.24​	37​
2020​	3-7​	3-7​	-.43​	101​	-.51​	92​	-.29​	92​		.65​	39​
2021​	3-9​	2-9​	-.39​	97​	-.39​	76​	-.62​	112​		1.34​	21​
2022​	5-7​	4-7​	-.33​	92​	-.92​	112​	.44​	41​		1.45​	25​

Always appreciate the historical data. And I don't disagree with your last point. However, what I and others are suggesting is forward-looking, and CPJ's past team performances aren't relevant to the near-term future of the program. When we have been as bad as we have been over the last few years, we need to look at all opportunities for improvement.

 

[CEB]

Always appreciate the historical data. And I don't disagree with your last point. However, what I and others are suggesting is forward-looking, and CPJ's past team performances aren't relevant to the near-term future of the program. When we have been as bad as we have been over the last few years, we need to look at all opportunities for improvement.

Certainly a valid point... but seeing as changes to the OOC slate are a good 3-4 years (if not more) away, I hope we have righted the ship by that time instead.

We should be 5-3 in the ACC annually. Barring the scheduling gods striking us down with a schedule that includes the top 5-6 teams in the conference, 5-3 ought to be the floor.

Even when we have two tough P5 OOC games, we should be 2-2 minimum. If we’re talking about winning seasons and bowl games, I don’t think our OOC schedule makes a difference.

In a few years when we are talking potentially making playoffs, I think that’s when i favor the “easy” win OOC model. If we’re notching 6+ wins in the ACC, I don’t think the second P5 OOC game helps as much as it could potentially hurt.

 

[Root4GT]

Certainly a valid point... but seeing as changes to the OOC slate are a good 3-4 years (if not more) away, I hope we have righted the ship by that time instead.

We should be 5-3 in the ACC annually. Barring the scheduling gods striking us down with a schedule that includes the top 5-6 teams in the conference, 5-3 ought to be the floor.

Even when we have two tough P5 OOC games, we should be 2-2 minimum. If we’re talking about winning seasons and bowl games, I don’t think our OOC schedule makes a difference.

In a few years when we are talking potentially making playoffs, I think that’s when i favor the “easy” win OOC model. If we’re notching 6+ wins in the ACC, I don’t think the second P5 OOC game helps as much as it could potentially hurt.

Optimism. Clemson and FSU have significantly more talent than we do across their roster. They have solid coaching staffs. Miami has many more talented players than GTt. Their coaching is unknown currently. They have a much higher ceiling than GT.

We are can be peers with pretty much the rest of the ACC. There will be years when some teams play great and others when they are lousy. Wake, Duke and Cuse would be the 3 traditional weak teams in the ACC, however Wake has been solid for a good number of years. Duke was solid last year. Who knows if they stay consistent. Cuse is likely on a coaching search after this season. UVA might be as well.

 

[slugboy]

Always appreciate the historical data. And I don't disagree with your last point. However, what I and others are suggesting is forward-looking, and CPJ's past team performances aren't relevant to the near-term future of the program. When we have been as bad as we have been over the last few years, we need to look at all opportunities for improvement.

We have influence on two to three games a year. Of those games, this year we have Ole Miss, Bowling Green, and SC State. SC State is FCS. Bowling Green is in the bottom group of FBS teams.

Here's the projected FEI for this year. It projects us pretty badly, because it uses the last five years to predict this season ("Program/Projected FEI"). Unfortunately, that's almost entirely the "previous guy", and it holds us down.

I'm just doing the rankings, and it was already in groups of 15. That gives 9 groups, which works out OK.

I put the teams on our schedule in bold.
We're in the 7th block, just behind BC.
We play one team in the worst block--Bowling Green. Plus, the FCS team SC State, who will have a great band at halftime.
VT is one group ahead of us.
Miami and UVA are two groups ahead of us.
UNC and Syracuse are three groups ahead of us.

You can argue that we're underestimated here, and other teams are overestimated, but that's not going to make that big of a difference. To be favored, we have to swap Ole Miss for a team like Western Michigan or Arkansas State. To be safe, we'd have to swap them for a team like Rice. And that just gets us one win.

Our big problem is we're in the wrong column, and we're looking up at way too many teams in kind of a weak conference. Yes, we have two opponents in the top 15 and one in the next 15, but if we're in the top 45 teams, or even 60, we're OK. A team is what its record says it is (and you need to factor in the blowouts to FSU and Miami, here).

Changing one game on the schedule is tinkering around the edges. We need to work our way up into column 4.

Rk

Team A

Rk

Team B

Rk

Team C

Rk

Team D

Rk

Team E

Rk

Team F

Rk

Team G

Rk

Team H

Rk

Team I

1​

Georgia

16​

Mississippi State

31​

Oregon State

46​

Arkansas

61​

Duke

76​

UTSA

91​

San Jose State

106​

Rutgers

121​

Texas State

2​

Alabama

17​

Washington

32​

Oklahoma State

47​

James Madison

62​

Western Kentucky

77​

UAB

92​

South Alabama

107​

Western Michigan

122​

Rice

3​

Ohio State

18​

Florida

33​

Cincinnati

48​

Fresno State

63​

Troy

78​

Ohio

93​

Wyoming

108​

Temple

123​

UTEP

4​

Michigan

19​

Minnesota

34​

Tulane

49​

Memphis

64​

Indiana

79​

San Diego State

94​

Coastal Carolina

109​

Central Michigan

124​

Bowling Green

5​

LSU

20​

Iowa

35​

Texas Tech

50​

Maryland

65​

Louisiana

80​

Buffalo

95​

Boston College

110​

Arkansas State

125​

Charlotte

6​

Tennessee

21​

Wisconsin

36​

Air Force

51​

Purdue

66​

Marshall

81​

Arizona

96​

Georgia Tech

111​

Northern Illinois

126​

Connecticut

7​

Penn State

22​

Florida State

37​

Wake Forest

52​

Michigan State

67​

Nebraska

82​

Northwestern

97​

Georgia State

112​

Nevada

127​

New Mexico

8​

Clemson

23​

USC

38​

Missouri

53​

North Carolina

68​

Army

83​

Stanford

98​

North Texas

113​

UNLV

128​

New Mexico State

9​

Texas

24​

Auburn

39​

Washington State

54​

NC State

69​

Navy

84​

Florida Atlantic

99​

Utah State

114​

South Florida

129​

Akron

10​

Utah

25​

Ole Miss

40​

Illinois

55​

Appalachian State

70​

Kansas

85​

Toledo

100​

Eastern Michigan

115​

Louisiana Tech

130​

Florida International

11​

Kansas State

26​

Texas A&M

41​

South Carolina

56​

SMU

71​

Arizona State

86​

Tulsa

101​

Miami (OH)

116​

Old Dominion

131​

Sam Houston

12​

Notre Dame

27​

Iowa State

42​

UCLA

57​

BYU

72​

California

87​

Liberty

102​

Southern Mississippi

117​

Colorado

131​

Jacksonville State

13​

Oregon

28​

Baylor

43​

Boise State

58​

Houston

73​

Miami

88​

Vanderbilt

103​

Kent State

118​

UL Monroe

133​

Massachusetts

14​

Oklahoma

29​

UCF

44​

Louisville

59​

Syracuse

74​

East Carolina

89​

Virginia Tech

104​

Middle Tennessee

119​

Colorado State

15​

TCU

30​

Kentucky

45​

Pittsburgh

60​

West Virginia

75​

Virginia

90​

Georgia Southern

105​

Ball State

120​

Hawaii

 

[billga99]

Optimism. Clemson and FSU have significantly more talent than we do across their roster. They have solid coaching staffs. Miami has many more talented players than GTt. Their coaching is unknown currently. They have a much higher ceiling than GT.

We are can be peers with pretty much the rest of the ACC. There will be years when some teams play great and others when they are lousy. Wake, Duke and Cuse would be the 3 traditional weak teams in the ACC, however Wake has been solid for a good number of years. Duke was solid last year. Who knows if they stay consistent. Cuse is likely on a coaching search after this season. UVA might be as well.

next year we have FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame and UGA on the schedule. My guess will all will be in Top 15.

 

[roadkill]

We have influence on two to three games a year. Of those games, this year we have Ole Miss, Bowling Green, and SC State. SC State is FCS. Bowling Green is in the bottom group of FBS teams.

Here's the projected FEI for this year. It projects us pretty badly, because it uses the last five years to predict this season ("Program/Projected FEI"). Unfortunately, that's almost entirely the "previous guy", and it holds us down.

I'm just doing the rankings, and it was already in groups of 15. That gives 9 groups, which works out OK.

I put the teams on our schedule in bold.
We're in the 7th block, just behind BC.
We play one team in the worst block--Bowling Green. Plus, the FCS team SC State, who will have a great band at halftime.
VT is one group ahead of us.
Miami and UVA are two groups ahead of us.
UNC and Syracuse are three groups ahead of us.

You can argue that we're underestimated here, and other teams are overestimated, but that's not going to make that big of a difference. To be favored, we have to swap Ole Miss for a team like Western Michigan or Arkansas State. To be safe, we'd have to swap them for a team like Rice. And that just gets us one win.

Our big problem is we're in the wrong column, and we're looking up at way too many teams in kind of a weak conference. Yes, we have two opponents in the top 15 and one in the next 15, but if we're in the top 45 teams, or even 60, we're OK. A team is what its record says it is (and you need to factor in the blowouts to FSU and Miami, here).

Changing one game on the schedule is tinkering around the edges. We need to work our way up into column 4.

Rk

Team A

Rk

Team B

Rk

Team C

Rk

Team D

Rk

Team E

Rk

Team F

Rk

Team G

Rk

Team H

Rk

Team I

1​

Georgia

16​

Mississippi State

31​

Oregon State

46​

Arkansas

61​

Duke

76​

UTSA

91​

San Jose State

106​

Rutgers

121​

Texas State

2​

Alabama

17​

Washington

32​

Oklahoma State

47​

James Madison

62​

Western Kentucky

77​

UAB

92​

South Alabama

107​

Western Michigan

122​

Rice

3​

Ohio State

18​

Florida

33​

Cincinnati

48​

Fresno State

63​

Troy

78​

Ohio

93​

Wyoming

108​

Temple

123​

UTEP

4​

Michigan

19​

Minnesota

34​

Tulane

49​

Memphis

64​

Indiana

79​

San Diego State

94​

Coastal Carolina

109​

Central Michigan

124​

Bowling Green

5​

LSU

20​

Iowa

35​

Texas Tech

50​

Maryland

65​

Louisiana

80​

Buffalo

95​

Boston College

110​

Arkansas State

125​

Charlotte

6​

Tennessee

21​

Wisconsin

36​

Air Force

51​

Purdue

66​

Marshall

81​

Arizona

96​

Georgia Tech

111​

Northern Illinois

126​

Connecticut

7​

Penn State

22​

Florida State

37​

Wake Forest

52​

Michigan State

67​

Nebraska

82​

Northwestern

97​

Georgia State

112​

Nevada

127​

New Mexico

8​

Clemson

23​

USC

38​

Missouri

53​

North Carolina

68​

Army

83​

Stanford

98​

North Texas

113​

UNLV

128​

New Mexico State

9​

Texas

24​

Auburn

39​

Washington State

54​

NC State

69​

Navy

84​

Florida Atlantic

99​

Utah State

114​

South Florida

129​

Akron

10​

Utah

25​

Ole Miss

40​

Illinois

55​

Appalachian State

70​

Kansas

85​

Toledo

100​

Eastern Michigan

115​

Louisiana Tech

130​

Florida International

11​

Kansas State

26​

Texas A&M

41​

South Carolina

56​

SMU

71​

Arizona State

86​

Tulsa

101​

Miami (OH)

116​

Old Dominion

131​

Sam Houston

12​

Notre Dame

27​

Iowa State

42​

UCLA

57​

BYU

72​

California

87​

Liberty

102​

Southern Mississippi

117​

Colorado

131​

Jacksonville State

13​

Oregon

28​

Baylor

43​

Boise State

58​

Houston

73​

Miami

88​

Vanderbilt

103​

Kent State

118​

UL Monroe

133​

Massachusetts

14​

Oklahoma

29​

UCF

44​

Louisville

59​

Syracuse

74​

East Carolina

89​

Virginia Tech

104​

Middle Tennessee

119​

Colorado State

15​

TCU

30​

Kentucky

45​

Pittsburgh

60​

West Virginia

75​

Virginia

90​

Georgia Southern

105​

Ball State

120​

Hawaii

Again, no argument from me that we have bigger problems to fix than our tough schedule. But I disagree that changing a probable loss to a probable win via scheduling is "tinkering around the edges" when we only play a 12-game regular season and are struggling to win 6 games.
That said, my argument is probably moot since I can't wave a magic wand and swap our OOC P5 for another Bowling Green in the short term.

 

[CEB]

next year we have FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame and UGA on the schedule. My guess will all will be in Top 15.

Agree... and conceding those four, we need to get to a point where we still feel 5-3 conference, 7-5 overall is attainable.

That said, next year is a real bear... in addition to those four being longshots, only one of them is a true road game, and it’s out of conference! That means that ACC teams we should be competitive with are on the road (NCST, Cuse, VT, Lville).
We really need to get better in a hurry!

 

[roadkill]

Agree... and conceding those four, we need to get to a point where we still feel 5-3 conference, 7-5 overall is attainable.

That said, next year is a real bear... in addition to those four being longshots, only one of them is a true road game, and it’s out of conference! That means that ACC teams we should be competitive with are on the road (NCST, Cuse, VT, Lville).
We really need to get better in a hurry!

At the risk of being repetitive, describing 7-5 as “attainable” (stretch goal) just reinforces my point about avoiding tough scheduling as we rebuild. We’ve fired coaches for going 7-5 routinely.

 

[Vespidae]

Agree... and conceding those four, we need to get to a point where we still feel 5-3 conference, 7-5 overall is attainable.

That said, next year is a real bear... in addition to those four being longshots, only one of them is a true road game, and it’s out of conference! That means that ACC teams we should be competitive with are on the road (NCST, Cuse, VT, Lville).
We really need to get better in a hurry!

CPJ quipped that GT was more like a service academy than a typical P5 program. He also said that Tech was pretty much a 7-5 team.

If you look at our last 20 years, we have a wpt of 0.529. You could argue that under Collins, those years are outliers, and that's fine. If so, we can use 0.57. The point is, Tech is pretty much a 7 win program.

The question is, will it ever be anything better than that? If you start with the assumption of losing to Clemson, FSU and UGA every year ... you have to pretty much run the table to do better than 7 wins. It might happen occasionally but ... the big difference is Tech doesn't have the ability to recruit, hold onto and develop players .... teams are now using the portal and you have to assemble a new team every year.

If you can beat the bottom of the conference and the OOC opponents, you might be 6-6. An occasional upset gets you to 7-5 and maybe a bowl. Given the new reality of CFB, I would be delighted if we could win 7 a year for the next few years and somewhat earn our reputation back.