Toughest ACC non-conference schedule: GT of course

Root4GT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,962
What does a Florida national championship in 2007 have to do with Florida in 2023 though? Florida has had losing records 3 of the last 6 years. Auburn has had losing records the last two years. LSU had a losing season in 2021 and was 5-5 in 2020. Have these teams been good in the past, yea, some of them like LSU are consistently good. That doesn't make them automatically good going forward regardless of results, but their losses damage their reputations far less and receive far more excuses than equivalent teams from other conferences.

So you are clear, because you seem confused, I think the SEC is the strongest conference at the top and has been for a while. They routinely have 2-3 teams that are very very good, which is more than any other conferences usually have. But the rest of their conference in any given year is comparable to anyone else outside the SEC but gets hyped as being super tough purely by association with those top few teams when it's not the case.
So what and who cares about the bottom 5-6 teams in any conference. That so many different SEC teams win NCs really matters. It shows how deep the conference really is that different teams go on great runs. Only Alabama has had the sustained run but 4 other teams have had their runs and are fully capable of doing so again. Saban has made it harder but as UGA has proven it is possible to top Alabama and then win the NC.

This year Bama, UGA and LSU are all reasonable picks to make the CFP. They all won’t of course. The B1G has 2 and the ACC has maybe 1. The Big 12, likely none.

It’s rinse and repeat every year. Must be tough with the SEC living in so many peoples heads who are GT fans.

I never cheer for an SEC team against any OOC opponent. I recognize they are much better thru the top 1/3rd of their conference than any other conference. Again no one cares about the bottom 1/3rd See GT the past 4 years.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,465
I believe @takethepoints' basic premise here, which I agree with in principle if not in specifics, is that we should attempt to control what is controllable about our schedule in terms of selecting opponents during this time frame when we are rebuilding the program. I don't have data, but it would be interesting to see how many other P5 programs routinely schedule 2 P5 opponents as their OOC games. I suspect there are many that do not.
The ACC has given us (or perhaps we selected) Clemson as one of our 3 permanent rival games. We only have 3 OOC choices after UGA. Typically we have a home and away against a P5, usually a G5 that lately has also been home and away, and an FCS home game. So the only wiggle room we might have is the second P5. I happen to think that our best recovery plan is, if possible, to schedule let's say another G5 team in lieu of our second P5 until we can ramp up our W/L ratio, build confidence, go bowling, etc, etc. For those who say we should schedule tougher teams to build our SoS, iron sharpens iron, and so forth - we've been doing that. How do you like the results?
I hope Key proves me wrong and we go 15-0 this year. But as I said before, hope is not a plan.
Here are the 10 worst Power Five teams, per ESPN's FPI:
  1. Colorado
  2. Rutgers
  3. Indiana
  4. Boston College
  5. Vanderbilt
  6. Virginia
  7. Stanford
  8. Kansas
  9. Northwestern
  10. Georgia Tech

Vespidae has a point, but it’s worse than it looks. Like you said, roadkill, we have flexibility with one FBS game a year—maybe two. Because of the ACC contract with Notre Dame, sometimes one of our games is Notre Dame. We can count one FCS game towards bowl eligibility, and only one. The other games have to come from FBS.

From 2007 through 2018, we stayed generally in the top half of FBS teams, and sometimes really good. We were reliably a solid team. The last four years, we were #100, #101, #97, and #92. When you’re at that level, you’re not scheduling a win in FBS, someone else is scheduling you as a win in FBS. We had a game against Northern Illinois in 2021 and lost.

From 2019 on, we were looking up at most of the G5 teams. I don’t care how “bare the cupboard” was, we tumbled massively under Collins.

There are only 131 FBS teams. We arguably didn’t have any reliable wins under Collins, even against the bottom 30 teams, but we would need to schedule Akron or UMASS or Rice and outbid the other teams trying to schedule them.

Far right column is our strength of schedule. While strength of schedule is a problem, having the #112 offense and possibly the worst special teams is a bigger problem.

Season
Rec
FBS
FEI
Rk
OFEI
Rk
DFEI
Rk
ELS
Rk
2007​
7-6​
6-6​
.14​
52​
-.51​
67​
.63​
50​
.71​
51​
2008​
9-4​
7-4​
.32​
30​
-.03​
32​
.69​
45​
.53​
72​
2009​
11-3​
10-3​
.63​
12​
.92​
2​
.15​
75​
1.05​
25​
2010​
6-7​
5-7​
-.05​
62​
-.31​
62​
.08​
74​
.72​
70​
2011​
8-5​
7-5​
.19​
42​
.51​
13​
.02​
76​
.33​
91​
2012​
7-7​
6-7​
.21​
47​
.65​
14​
.08​
68​
1.01​
41​
2013​
7-6​
5-6​
.33​
36​
.25​
32​
.35​
61​
.71​
68​
2014​
11-3​
10-3​
.79​
11​
1.28​
2​
.18​
63​
1.16​
32​
2015​
3-9​
2-9​
.14​
56​
-.44​
78​
.45​
52​
1.08​
18​
2016​
9-4​
8-4​
.30​
37​
.43​
29​
.06​
67​
.92​
44​
2017​
5-6​
4-6​
.26​
39​
.40​
25​
.49​
41​
1.56​
20​
2018​
7-6​
6-6​
.11​
56​
.52​
18​
-.44​
103​
1.52​
19​
2019​
3-9​
3-8​
-.44​
100​
-.60​
97​
-.40​
101​
1.24​
37​
2020​
3-7​
3-7​
-.43​
101​
-.51​
92​
-.29​
92​
.65​
39​
2021​
3-9​
2-9​
-.39​
97​
-.39​
76​
-.62​
112​
1.34​
21​
2022​
5-7​
4-7​
-.33​
92​
-.92​
112​
.44​
41​
1.45​
25​
 
Last edited:

yeti92

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,024
Here are the 10 worst Power Five teams, per ESPN's FPI:
  1. Colorado
  2. Rutgers
  3. Indiana
  4. Boston College
  5. Vanderbilt
  6. Virginia
  7. Stanford
  8. Kansas
  9. Northwestern
  10. Georgia Tech
Which is silly. We finished 5-7 overall and 4-4 under the new head coach as well as 4-4 in conference with multiple wins over ranked teams, but are 65 overall according to FPI.

We beat VT head to head at their house and they ended with a 3-8 record, but somehow rated better than us? 63 overall

Iowa State ended 4-8 and 1-8 in their conference, but somehow rated better than us? They sit at 43 overall

Michigan State was 5-7 and 3-6 in conference. 31 overall

Nebraska was 4-8 and 3-6 in conference. Sits at 52.

Cal ended 4-8, 2-7 in conference. Sits at 51.

Arizona State was 3-9 and 2-7 in conference. Sits at 64

Auburn and A&M both went 5-7 and 2-6 in conference. Auburn sits at 39 overall, while A&M is at 19!

Seems to me there are another 5-8 teams that should be on that list before us.
 

AugustaSwarm

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
807
So, playing uga and then a bunch of cupcakes does nothing for our coffers from ticket sales. However, there is a logic to playing 3 OOC cupcakes. If we can go 5-3 in the ACC or 6-2 and then 3-4 OCC wins (if we occasionally bump off the mutts), then we’re looking at 8-9-10 wins season over season. That means bowl games. That means recruiting fodder. That means winning recruiting wars because kids want to play for winners. It becomes a circle. We start winning games and kids want to come here. That improves our talent, which improves our team. Then we get to 10-11 wins and ACCCG. That means more positive exposure. Then we get to a National level. As long as there is continuity in coaching leadership, that will work.

The alternative is to take on all comers and use that on the recruiting trail. We’ll coach you up and put you on a stage with the best out there. You’ll have an opportunity to play significant snaps against the best out there and show what you have.

We haven’t been too successful with the latter.
Don't forget the $$$ involved with bowl games. For a cash strapped program like ours, that cash infusion is sorely needed.
 

Vespidae

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,305
Location
Auburn, AL
Which is silly. We finished 5-7 overall and 4-4 under the new head coach as well as 4-4 in conference with multiple wins over ranked teams, but are 65 overall according to FPI.

We beat VT head to head at their house and they ended with a 3-8 record, but somehow rated better than us? 63 overall

Iowa State ended 4-8 and 1-8 in their conference, but somehow rated better than us? They sit at 43 overall

Michigan State was 5-7 and 3-6 in conference. 31 overall

Nebraska was 4-8 and 3-6 in conference. Sits at 52.

Cal ended 4-8, 2-7 in conference. Sits at 51.

Arizona State was 3-9 and 2-7 in conference. Sits at 64

Auburn and A&M both went 5-7 and 2-6 in conference. Auburn sits at 39 overall, while A&M is at 19!

Seems to me there are another 5-8 teams that should be on that list before us.
Out of 131 teams, you’re quibbling over being ranked 113 vs 121?

The fact is, we aren’t very good. We have to at least best weak sisters in our own conference. If we can’t beat Boston College and UVA, I don’t know what to tell you.
 

AugustaSwarm

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
807
Seems to me there are another 5-8 teams that should be on that list before us.
Thems the brakes, boys. The fact that we're even in the discussion is the problem. We can pick nits about what rank we are, but the national perception is that we're in the discussion for being on the poo-poo list, and we earned it.

Over the last few years, we've lost to multiple "cupcake" teams. That's how you fight your way onto that list. We earned it, let's own it, fix it, and move the eff on.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,465
We are neither ranked 113 or 121, so no.
It depends on which ranking it is. FEI “liked” our defense, so we were #92, which was up a good bit from last year. ESPN’s FPI had us at #80 last year. There are a bunch where we were ranked lower.

I don’t think any would have us down at 121, but BC, GT, VT, and UVA were all looking up at a lot of G5 schools.

There is a tier of teams like UMASS and Akron. There’s another tier just better than that, and we were there.

Thems the brakes, boys. The fact that we're even in the discussion is the problem. We can pick nits about what rank we are, but the national perception is that we're in the discussion for being on the poo-poo list, and we earned it.

Over the last few years, we've lost to multiple "cupcake" teams. That's how you fight your way onto that list. We earned it, let's own it, fix it, and move the eff on.

I agree with this take.
 

yeti92

Helluva Engineer
Messages
3,024
Isn't that what you said? If we're 10th worst out of 131, that makes us 121st. Or in that vicinity. Suggesting there are 5 to 8 worse teams seems immaterial.
No it's not. You said we were 10th worst out of P5 teams, but there are not 131 P5 teams, there are 65.
 

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,811
Vespidae has a point, but it’s worse than it looks. Like you said, roadkill, we have flexibility with one FBS game a year—maybe two. Because of the ACC contract with Notre Dame, sometimes one of our games is Notre Dame. We can count one FCS game towards bowl eligibility, and only one. The other games have to come from FBS.

From 2007 through 2018, we stayed generally in the top half of FBS teams, and sometimes really good. We were reliably a solid team. The last four years, we were #100, #101, #97, and #92. When you’re at that level, you’re not scheduling a win in FBS, someone else is scheduling you as a win in FBS. We had a game against Northern Illinois in 2021 and lost.

From 2019 on, we were looking up at most of the G5 teams. I don’t care how “bare the cupboard” was, we tumbled massively under Collins.

There are only 131 FBS teams. We arguably didn’t have any reliable wins under Collins, even against the bottom 30 teams, but we would need to schedule Akron or UMASS or Rice and outbid the other teams trying to schedule them.

Far right column is our strength of schedule. While strength of schedule is a problem, having the #112 offense and possibly the worst special teams is a bigger problem.

Season
Rec
FBS
FEI
Rk
OFEI
Rk
DFEI
Rk
ELS
Rk
2007​
7-6​
6-6​
.14​
52​
-.51​
67​
.63​
50​
.71​
51​
2008​
9-4​
7-4​
.32​
30​
-.03​
32​
.69​
45​
.53​
72​
2009​
11-3​
10-3​
.63​
12​
.92​
2​
.15​
75​
1.05​
25​
2010​
6-7​
5-7​
-.05​
62​
-.31​
62​
.08​
74​
.72​
70​
2011​
8-5​
7-5​
.19​
42​
.51​
13​
.02​
76​
.33​
91​
2012​
7-7​
6-7​
.21​
47​
.65​
14​
.08​
68​
1.01​
41​
2013​
7-6​
5-6​
.33​
36​
.25​
32​
.35​
61​
.71​
68​
2014​
11-3​
10-3​
.79​
11​
1.28​
2​
.18​
63​
1.16​
32​
2015​
3-9​
2-9​
.14​
56​
-.44​
78​
.45​
52​
1.08​
18​
2016​
9-4​
8-4​
.30​
37​
.43​
29​
.06​
67​
.92​
44​
2017​
5-6​
4-6​
.26​
39​
.40​
25​
.49​
41​
1.56​
20​
2018​
7-6​
6-6​
.11​
56​
.52​
18​
-.44​
103​
1.52​
19​
2019​
3-9​
3-8​
-.44​
100​
-.60​
97​
-.40​
101​
1.24​
37​
2020​
3-7​
3-7​
-.43​
101​
-.51​
92​
-.29​
92​
.65​
39​
2021​
3-9​
2-9​
-.39​
97​
-.39​
76​
-.62​
112​
1.34​
21​
2022​
5-7​
4-7​
-.33​
92​
-.92​
112​
.44​
41​
1.45​
25​
Always appreciate the historical data. And I don't disagree with your last point. However, what I and others are suggesting is forward-looking, and CPJ's past team performances aren't relevant to the near-term future of the program. When we have been as bad as we have been over the last few years, we need to look at all opportunities for improvement.
 

CEB

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,521
Always appreciate the historical data. And I don't disagree with your last point. However, what I and others are suggesting is forward-looking, and CPJ's past team performances aren't relevant to the near-term future of the program. When we have been as bad as we have been over the last few years, we need to look at all opportunities for improvement.
Certainly a valid point... but seeing as changes to the OOC slate are a good 3-4 years (if not more) away, I hope we have righted the ship by that time instead.

We should be 5-3 in the ACC annually. Barring the scheduling gods striking us down with a schedule that includes the top 5-6 teams in the conference, 5-3 ought to be the floor.

Even when we have two tough P5 OOC games, we should be 2-2 minimum. If we’re talking about winning seasons and bowl games, I don’t think our OOC schedule makes a difference.

In a few years when we are talking potentially making playoffs, I think that’s when i favor the “easy” win OOC model. If we’re notching 6+ wins in the ACC, I don’t think the second P5 OOC game helps as much as it could potentially hurt.
 

Root4GT

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,962
Certainly a valid point... but seeing as changes to the OOC slate are a good 3-4 years (if not more) away, I hope we have righted the ship by that time instead.

We should be 5-3 in the ACC annually. Barring the scheduling gods striking us down with a schedule that includes the top 5-6 teams in the conference, 5-3 ought to be the floor.

Even when we have two tough P5 OOC games, we should be 2-2 minimum. If we’re talking about winning seasons and bowl games, I don’t think our OOC schedule makes a difference.

In a few years when we are talking potentially making playoffs, I think that’s when i favor the “easy” win OOC model. If we’re notching 6+ wins in the ACC, I don’t think the second P5 OOC game helps as much as it could potentially hurt.
Optimism. Clemson and FSU have significantly more talent than we do across their roster. They have solid coaching staffs. Miami has many more talented players than GTt. Their coaching is unknown currently. They have a much higher ceiling than GT.

We are can be peers with pretty much the rest of the ACC. There will be years when some teams play great and others when they are lousy. Wake, Duke and Cuse would be the 3 traditional weak teams in the ACC, however Wake has been solid for a good number of years. Duke was solid last year. Who knows if they stay consistent. Cuse is likely on a coaching search after this season. UVA might be as well.
 

slugboy

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
11,465
Always appreciate the historical data. And I don't disagree with your last point. However, what I and others are suggesting is forward-looking, and CPJ's past team performances aren't relevant to the near-term future of the program. When we have been as bad as we have been over the last few years, we need to look at all opportunities for improvement.

We have influence on two to three games a year. Of those games, this year we have Ole Miss, Bowling Green, and SC State. SC State is FCS. Bowling Green is in the bottom group of FBS teams.

Here's the projected FEI for this year. It projects us pretty badly, because it uses the last five years to predict this season ("Program/Projected FEI"). Unfortunately, that's almost entirely the "previous guy", and it holds us down.

I'm just doing the rankings, and it was already in groups of 15. That gives 9 groups, which works out OK.

I put the teams on our schedule in bold.
We're in the 7th block, just behind BC.
We play one team in the worst block--Bowling Green. Plus, the FCS team SC State, who will have a great band at halftime.
VT is one group ahead of us.
Miami and UVA are two groups ahead of us.
UNC and Syracuse are three groups ahead of us.

You can argue that we're underestimated here, and other teams are overestimated, but that's not going to make that big of a difference. To be favored, we have to swap Ole Miss for a team like Western Michigan or Arkansas State. To be safe, we'd have to swap them for a team like Rice. And that just gets us one win.

Our big problem is we're in the wrong column, and we're looking up at way too many teams in kind of a weak conference. Yes, we have two opponents in the top 15 and one in the next 15, but if we're in the top 45 teams, or even 60, we're OK. A team is what its record says it is (and you need to factor in the blowouts to FSU and Miami, here).

Changing one game on the schedule is tinkering around the edges. We need to work our way up into column 4.

RkTeam ARkTeam BRkTeam CRkTeam DRkTeam ERkTeam FRkTeam GRkTeam HRkTeam I
1
Georgia
16​
Mississippi State
31​
Oregon State
46​
Arkansas
61​
Duke
76​
UTSA
91​
San Jose State
106​
Rutgers
121​
Texas State
2​
Alabama
17​
Washington
32​
Oklahoma State
47​
James Madison
62​
Western Kentucky
77​
UAB
92​
South Alabama
107​
Western Michigan
122​
Rice
3​
Ohio State
18​
Florida
33​
Cincinnati
48​
Fresno State
63​
Troy
78​
Ohio
93​
Wyoming
108​
Temple
123​
UTEP
4​
Michigan
19​
Minnesota
34​
Tulane
49​
Memphis
64​
Indiana
79​
San Diego State
94​
Coastal Carolina
109​
Central Michigan
124
Bowling Green
5
LSU
20​
Iowa
35​
Texas Tech
50​
Maryland
65​
Louisiana
80​
Buffalo
95
Boston College
110​
Arkansas State
125​
Charlotte
6​
Tennessee
21​
Wisconsin
36​
Air Force
51​
Purdue
66​
Marshall
81​
Arizona
96
Georgia Tech
111​
Northern Illinois
126​
Connecticut
7​
Penn State
22​
Florida State
37
Wake Forest
52​
Michigan State
67​
Nebraska
82​
Northwestern
97​
Georgia State
112​
Nevada
127​
New Mexico
8
Clemson
23​
USC
38​
Missouri
53
North Carolina
68​
Army
83​
Stanford
98​
North Texas
113​
UNLV
128​
New Mexico State
9​
Texas
24​
Auburn
39​
Washington State
54​
NC State
69​
Navy
84​
Florida Atlantic
99​
Utah State
114​
South Florida
129​
Akron
10​
Utah
25
Ole Miss
40​
Illinois
55​
Appalachian State
70​
Kansas
85​
Toledo
100​
Eastern Michigan
115​
Louisiana Tech
130​
Florida International
11​
Kansas State
26​
Texas A&M
41​
South Carolina
56​
SMU
71​
Arizona State
86​
Tulsa
101​
Miami (OH)
116​
Old Dominion
131​
Sam Houston
12​
Notre Dame
27​
Iowa State
42​
UCLA
57​
BYU
72​
California
87​
Liberty
102​
Southern Mississippi
117​
Colorado
131​
Jacksonville State
13​
Oregon
28​
Baylor
43​
Boise State
58​
Houston
73
Miami
88​
Vanderbilt
103​
Kent State
118​
UL Monroe
133​
Massachusetts
14​
Oklahoma
29​
UCF
44
Louisville
59
Syracuse
74​
East Carolina
89
Virginia Tech
104​
Middle Tennessee
119​
Colorado State
15​
TCU
30​
Kentucky
45​
Pittsburgh
60​
West Virginia
75
Virginia
90​
Georgia Southern
105​
Ball State
120​
Hawaii
 

billga99

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
810
Optimism. Clemson and FSU have significantly more talent than we do across their roster. They have solid coaching staffs. Miami has many more talented players than GTt. Their coaching is unknown currently. They have a much higher ceiling than GT.

We are can be peers with pretty much the rest of the ACC. There will be years when some teams play great and others when they are lousy. Wake, Duke and Cuse would be the 3 traditional weak teams in the ACC, however Wake has been solid for a good number of years. Duke was solid last year. Who knows if they stay consistent. Cuse is likely on a coaching search after this season. UVA might be as well.
next year we have FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame and UGA on the schedule. My guess will all will be in Top 15.
 

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,811
We have influence on two to three games a year. Of those games, this year we have Ole Miss, Bowling Green, and SC State. SC State is FCS. Bowling Green is in the bottom group of FBS teams.

Here's the projected FEI for this year. It projects us pretty badly, because it uses the last five years to predict this season ("Program/Projected FEI"). Unfortunately, that's almost entirely the "previous guy", and it holds us down.

I'm just doing the rankings, and it was already in groups of 15. That gives 9 groups, which works out OK.

I put the teams on our schedule in bold.
We're in the 7th block, just behind BC.
We play one team in the worst block--Bowling Green. Plus, the FCS team SC State, who will have a great band at halftime.
VT is one group ahead of us.
Miami and UVA are two groups ahead of us.
UNC and Syracuse are three groups ahead of us.

You can argue that we're underestimated here, and other teams are overestimated, but that's not going to make that big of a difference. To be favored, we have to swap Ole Miss for a team like Western Michigan or Arkansas State. To be safe, we'd have to swap them for a team like Rice. And that just gets us one win.

Our big problem is we're in the wrong column, and we're looking up at way too many teams in kind of a weak conference. Yes, we have two opponents in the top 15 and one in the next 15, but if we're in the top 45 teams, or even 60, we're OK. A team is what its record says it is (and you need to factor in the blowouts to FSU and Miami, here).

Changing one game on the schedule is tinkering around the edges. We need to work our way up into column 4.

RkTeam ARkTeam BRkTeam CRkTeam DRkTeam ERkTeam FRkTeam GRkTeam HRkTeam I
1
Georgia
16​
Mississippi State
31​
Oregon State
46​
Arkansas
61​
Duke
76​
UTSA
91​
San Jose State
106​
Rutgers
121​
Texas State
2​
Alabama
17​
Washington
32​
Oklahoma State
47​
James Madison
62​
Western Kentucky
77​
UAB
92​
South Alabama
107​
Western Michigan
122​
Rice
3​
Ohio State
18​
Florida
33​
Cincinnati
48​
Fresno State
63​
Troy
78​
Ohio
93​
Wyoming
108​
Temple
123​
UTEP
4​
Michigan
19​
Minnesota
34​
Tulane
49​
Memphis
64​
Indiana
79​
San Diego State
94​
Coastal Carolina
109​
Central Michigan
124
Bowling Green
5
LSU
20​
Iowa
35​
Texas Tech
50​
Maryland
65​
Louisiana
80​
Buffalo
95
Boston College
110​
Arkansas State
125​
Charlotte
6​
Tennessee
21​
Wisconsin
36​
Air Force
51​
Purdue
66​
Marshall
81​
Arizona
96
Georgia Tech
111​
Northern Illinois
126​
Connecticut
7​
Penn State
22​
Florida State
37
Wake Forest
52​
Michigan State
67​
Nebraska
82​
Northwestern
97​
Georgia State
112​
Nevada
127​
New Mexico
8
Clemson
23​
USC
38​
Missouri
53
North Carolina
68​
Army
83​
Stanford
98​
North Texas
113​
UNLV
128​
New Mexico State
9​
Texas
24​
Auburn
39​
Washington State
54​
NC State
69​
Navy
84​
Florida Atlantic
99​
Utah State
114​
South Florida
129​
Akron
10​
Utah
25
Ole Miss
40​
Illinois
55​
Appalachian State
70​
Kansas
85​
Toledo
100​
Eastern Michigan
115​
Louisiana Tech
130​
Florida International
11​
Kansas State
26​
Texas A&M
41​
South Carolina
56​
SMU
71​
Arizona State
86​
Tulsa
101​
Miami (OH)
116​
Old Dominion
131​
Sam Houston
12​
Notre Dame
27​
Iowa State
42​
UCLA
57​
BYU
72​
California
87​
Liberty
102​
Southern Mississippi
117​
Colorado
131​
Jacksonville State
13​
Oregon
28​
Baylor
43​
Boise State
58​
Houston
73
Miami
88​
Vanderbilt
103​
Kent State
118​
UL Monroe
133​
Massachusetts
14​
Oklahoma
29​
UCF
44
Louisville
59
Syracuse
74​
East Carolina
89
Virginia Tech
104​
Middle Tennessee
119​
Colorado State
15​
TCU
30​
Kentucky
45​
Pittsburgh
60​
West Virginia
75
Virginia
90​
Georgia Southern
105​
Ball State
120​
Hawaii
Again, no argument from me that we have bigger problems to fix than our tough schedule. But I disagree that changing a probable loss to a probable win via scheduling is "tinkering around the edges" when we only play a 12-game regular season and are struggling to win 6 games.
That said, my argument is probably moot since I can't wave a magic wand and swap our OOC P5 for another Bowling Green in the short term.
 

CEB

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,521
next year we have FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame and UGA on the schedule. My guess will all will be in Top 15.
Agree... and conceding those four, we need to get to a point where we still feel 5-3 conference, 7-5 overall is attainable.

That said, next year is a real bear... in addition to those four being longshots, only one of them is a true road game, and it’s out of conference! That means that ACC teams we should be competitive with are on the road (NCST, Cuse, VT, Lville).
We really need to get better in a hurry!
 

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,811
Agree... and conceding those four, we need to get to a point where we still feel 5-3 conference, 7-5 overall is attainable.

That said, next year is a real bear... in addition to those four being longshots, only one of them is a true road game, and it’s out of conference! That means that ACC teams we should be competitive with are on the road (NCST, Cuse, VT, Lville).
We really need to get better in a hurry!
At the risk of being repetitive, describing 7-5 as “attainable” (stretch goal) just reinforces my point about avoiding tough scheduling as we rebuild. We’ve fired coaches for going 7-5 routinely.
 

Vespidae

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,305
Location
Auburn, AL
Agree... and conceding those four, we need to get to a point where we still feel 5-3 conference, 7-5 overall is attainable.

That said, next year is a real bear... in addition to those four being longshots, only one of them is a true road game, and it’s out of conference! That means that ACC teams we should be competitive with are on the road (NCST, Cuse, VT, Lville).
We really need to get better in a hurry!

CPJ quipped that GT was more like a service academy than a typical P5 program. He also said that Tech was pretty much a 7-5 team.

If you look at our last 20 years, we have a wpt of 0.529. You could argue that under Collins, those years are outliers, and that's fine. If so, we can use 0.57. The point is, Tech is pretty much a 7 win program.

The question is, will it ever be anything better than that? If you start with the assumption of losing to Clemson, FSU and UGA every year ... you have to pretty much run the table to do better than 7 wins. It might happen occasionally but ... the big difference is Tech doesn't have the ability to recruit, hold onto and develop players .... teams are now using the portal and you have to assemble a new team every year.

If you can beat the bottom of the conference and the OOC opponents, you might be 6-6. An occasional upset gets you to 7-5 and maybe a bowl. Given the new reality of CFB, I would be delighted if we could win 7 a year for the next few years and somewhat earn our reputation back.
 
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