Rotating QBs, especially three of them, is not a good thing. The staff is rotating 3 QBs because, as of right now, they don't have one. Against Clemson it was mostly Oliver and Graham. Against USF it was mostly Lucas and Oliver. Against Citadel - by necessity, it was Oliver and Graham.
In very rare scenarios - you have two talented QBs that just have to see the field. Greene and Shockley at UGA
In less rare scenarios - you have the prized, talented recruit sharing snaps until they are ready to takeover. See Trevor Lawrence last year, Vad Lee and Tevin Washington, etc
Then you have situational rotation - "goal-line" packages where maybe the backup is a better runner or you just don't want the starter taking that kind of pounding.
As for our QB rotation: I understand the people who say Tobias gives us the best chance to win now. I don't necessarily disagree. But let's look at these passing stats:
Clemson: 3 of 9 for 65 yards, long of 54, 3 sacks. He had a nice, open pass to Jerry Howard who got yards after the catch
USF: 2 of 3 for 11 yards
Citadel: 2 of 3 for 27 yards
That's as one-dimensional as you can be as a QB. Teams just flat out do not have to respect the pass when Tobias is in at QB. USF is *bad*, and Citadel is an FCS team.
Let's look at Lucas Johnson:
Clemson: 0 for 2
USF: 11 of 17 for 45 yards, 2.6 average, long of 11, 1 INT
CIT: 5 for 10, 91 yards, 9.1 average, 1 TD, 3 Sacks
The TD throw vs Citadel really padded Lucas stats, and if you were at the game, it was an under-thrown, wobbling duck. Camp was just physically better than their DB - but it could have easily been a pick.
Still, being touted as a "passing" QB and not breaking 100 yards through the air isn't exactly promising.
James Graham:
Clemson: 4 of 7 for 72 yards, Average of 10.3, with a beautiful TD to Brown where only he could get it. 1 sack
USF: 1 for 1, 20 yards (big 3rd down conversion and a bullet of a pass - I think also to Brown). 2 Sacks.
CIT: Did not participate
Graham is a much smaller sample size right now - but he can provide explosive plays in the passing game, something the other two QBs have no consistently shown.
What about running the ball? Keeping in mind, sacks are going to lower the average, so the throwing quarterbacks (Lucas and James) will look worse:
Tobias:
Clemson: 20 for 56 yards, 2.8 average. Long of 39. It worked early - but Clemson adjusted quickly
USF: 9 for 48, 5.3 average, Long of 11. 1 TD
CIT: 11 for 92, 8.4 average, Long of 22
Tobias ran pretty well against Citadel, but that's an FCS team. USF kept him mostly in check, especially in terms of explosiveness, and Clemson is the defending national champs.
Lucas:
USF: 9 for 36, long of 13
CIT: 7 for 5 yards.
Weirdly enough, Lucas had *almost* as many yards against USF as Tobias, mainly due to that long 13 yard run (I believe it was a 3rd down conversion).
Against Citadel - he just wasn't a dual threat. Based on the eye test - I just don't think he has the same wheels that he had when he ran for 70 yards in that spring game.
Graham:
Clemson: 4 for 15, 3.8 yards per attempt
USF: 6 attempts for 2 yards, with a long of 15. Those 2 sacks really hurt his average.
Looking at the stats, what can we conclude?
- We're not good on offense as a team
- Tobias can run the ball well but isn't a dual-threat QB, and didn't light the world on fire against USF
- Lucas has the most attempts and may understand the offense the best - but isn't pushing the ball downfield and isn't much of a threat as runner
- Graham, in very limited action, has shown willingness and capability to get the ball downfield.
- Did I mention we're not good on offense?
If it were my choice - I'd play Graham as much as possible and let him learn by fire. He'll make mistakes, but he'll also make some plays, so hopefully those balance out. Tobias should have some wildcat packages but is too good of an athlete to keep off the field.
The bigger issue is that O-line help is at least another year away.