NCAA Baseball Tournament

forensicbuzz

forensicbuzz

21st Century Throwback Dad
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SnidelyWhiplash said:
Looking at Vanderbilt's schedule:
40-15
SEC: 19-10
OOC: 21-5
Last 10: 5-5 (note this part).

Games won by 3 or fewer runs: 15 (38%)
Games won by 2 or fewer runs: 11 (28%)
Games won by 1 or fewer runs: 7 (18%)

In 1 run games: 7-1

What does this all tell me? Well, that they are beatable, but largely they don't beat themselves. We can't beat ourselves. They are good enough that they win the close games. They've walked almost 70 fewer guys than us. There ERA is 3.49 and ours is 5.80. We have almost 50% more errors than them. We have to play a clean game to be in it.
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That's 86% of their games were 3 runs or less. I like our odds against that. We can score a lot of runs (and also give up a lot too).
 

Deleted member 2897

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forensicbuzz said:
That's 86% of their games were 3 runs or less. I like our odds against that. We can score a lot of runs (and also give up a lot too).
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Oh, sorry I didn't clarify - games won by 3 runs or less. So in other words if a game was won by 1 run, it counts as a game won by 1 run or less and it counts as a game won by 3 runs or less. So those numbers aren't additive.
 

augustabuzz

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FredJacket said:
Here's a link to the Vandy website with schedule... All 4 teams play a single game on Fri and a single game on Sat. If you do end up on loser's side, but not eliminated after Sat (1-1), then you "could" play 2 times on Sunday if you win your 1st game Sun. You are correct in that if you are 1-1 after Sat, you must go 4-1 to win the regional. If you are 2-0 after Sat, then 3-0 or 3-1 gets it done.

Typo on latest version of this link/schedule, for Game 5 on Sun.... it should read Game 3 winner v Game 4 loser


https://vucommodores.com/baseball-postseason-central/
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Didn't know we're 3 seed.

Friday, June 4
G1: #2 Indiana State (30-19) vs. #3 Georgia Tech (29-23) – Noon, ESPN3
G2: #1 Vanderbilt (40-15) vs. #4 Presbyterian (22-21) – 6 p.m., SEC Network
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

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I know many won't be able to see this (if you don't subscribe). It isn't important. Just some judgments by several D1 contributors on the selections & predictions.

Interesting (to me) highlights..
1) Many agree ND & PITT were mistreated by selection committee. ND not a national seed & Pitt not in field..
2) All had only 1 or zero ACC teams in Omaha. Those that had 1 ACC team had UVA or Duke in. Nobody picked ND to get there.
3) The SEC dominates the Omaha lists.

d1baseball.com

Regionals Roundtable: Staff Quick Takes On The Field Of 64 • D1Baseball

Our staffers offer some quick takes on some of the big storylines surrounding the field of 64.
d1baseball.com d1baseball.com
 

augustabuzz

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FredJacket said:
Doesn't really matter, but we're not. We're a #2. What's your source?
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I know . The below is a copy from the Vandy website linked in a previous post.
Friday, June 4
G1: #2 Indiana State (30-19) vs. #3 Georgia Tech (29-23) – Noon, ESPN3
G2: #1 Vanderbilt (40-15) vs. #4 Presbyterian (22-21) – 6 p.m., SEC Network
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

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augustabuzz said:
I know . The below is a copy from the Vandy website linked in a previous post.
Friday, June 4
G1: #2 Indiana State (30-19) vs. #3 Georgia Tech (29-23) – Noon, ESPN3
G2: #1 Vanderbilt (40-15) vs. #4 Presbyterian (22-21) – 6 p.m., SEC Network
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?? ...same link
Screenshot_20210601-181150_Chrome.jpg


ETA... now I see what you see. Looks like a typo to me.
 

GTJon

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senoiajacket said:
I think I agree with this. Whether you lose in G1 or you loose in G2, you still end up playing twice on Saturday (I think) and have to play 5 games (winning 4 of them) to advance. It just "feels" like it would be a big momentum boost to win the first one and it keeps you in the hunt to stay in the winners side, so you have to give it your best shot. IIRC, that is Hall's MO in previous situations as well. So unless he has had a change of heart or DBo has some effect on him, this is what I expect to happen.

ISU started their #1 in the first game of their conf tournament (against the #6 seed) and he is very good. Has not given up more than 4 earned runs any outing this year and has not pitched less that 6.1 innings per outing (against Dallas Baptist, his one loss), since early March. He is the real deal with 1.93ERA and 97/13 K/BB ratio. He routinely goes 100+ pitches. I don't think we will score many runs against him and we have to go with our best.

I hope Hurter is up to the task. Our pitchers will (obviously) have to pitch "above" their heads (at least based on past performance) in order for us to advance. We need to minimize what we "give" to the other team in terms of BBs, HBPs, and errors, something that we have not been very good at this year.
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It's easy to look at it either way. Personally, I look at it as the goal is to the win the regional, nothing less. To do that, you have to beat Vandy twice. As shaky as our pitching has been this year, that seems almost impossible to do without Hurter getting one of those games. So I would say just take your chances on Friday and hope to get to Vandy with Hurter on Saturday.

I will also note that while the ISU starter has a great ERA, in his last 5 games, he's given up 5, 2, 3, 4, and 2 runs to teams with presumably less firepower than us. If Archer/Maxwell/Bartnicki can keep them to 3-4 runs, I like my chances.
 

bensaysitathome

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GTJon said:
It's easy to look at it either way. Personally, I look at it as the goal is to the win the regional, nothing less. To do that, you have to beat Vandy twice. As shaky as our pitching has been this year, that seems almost impossible to do without Hurter getting one of those games. So I would say just take your chances on Friday and hope to get to Vandy with Hurter on Saturday.

I will also note that while the ISU starter has a great ERA, in his last 5 games, he's given up 5, 2, 3, 4, and 2 runs to teams with presumably less firepower than us. If Archer/Maxwell/Bartnicki can keep them to 3-4 runs, I like my chances.
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I think I agree. The goal isn't too win the next game, it's to win the regional.

If we pitch Hurter against Indiana St and win, then lose to Vandy with Archer, what's the next move? We'll need to beat Vandy eventually. Gotta shoot our shot.
 

ramblinwreckguru

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bensaysitathome said:
I think I agree. The goal isn't too win the next game, it's to win the regional.

If we pitch Hurter against Indiana St and win, then lose to Vandy with Archer, what's the next move? We'll need to beat Vandy eventually. Gotta shoot our shot.
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I'm good with either decision, but either way we go, it will be the wrong decision to many if we lose either of the first 2.
 

Deleted member 2897

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Buzzbomb said:
Both teams get 27 outs. Common, you are smarter than that.
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If you know baseball, you know this is false. The home team frequently only uses 24 outs. When we last hosted a regional, we were the away team twice, and lost in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs…on our own ****ing field. Against a worse seed..
 
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