NCAA Baseball Tournament

[GTNavyNuke]

Sucks to be a Duck.

sucks worse to be a dwag. To 40 rpi teams in NCAAs. #41 uGag not in ch

No one should ***** about the committee using rpi since it castrated the dwags.

 

[NW GA JACKET]

Sure it's harder to win but someone has to win. 0-9 recent post season?

The record speaks for itself, no doubt disappointing, but does it all fall on CDH? I know the answer is yes, because he is the head Jacket, just like 1 series title for Cox during his run with the Braves. The question is would either team have been in postseason without the manager? Who knows ? I know that both guided their teams to the postseason and you can’t win it if not in it. That’s why sports are such great conversation starters.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

A) and B). Hall's teams regular season record is better than his teams post season, at least since 2008. The great post season results were early on, we have lost the last nine NCAA appearances we haven't won a regional even though we hosted four times.
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C) What to do better? Damned if I know other than a quicker hook when a pitcher is struggling. But given out pitching depth over the last decade that is Russian Roulette. Slow Hook Hall is what has killed us in the past IMHO. I'm not going back to research the Auburn game .......... We need to pull pitchers much quicker and see who else can do well. Plus we have a bunch of guys who are strong for an inning or two and then unravel. Keeping them in to develop their draft prospects at the expense of the team is not what I like. But Hall does a fabulous job of getting our players drafted which is part of what he should do IMHO.

D) This year's pitching staff is shallower than past years IMHO. I could go back and confirm with past pitcher ERAs and team ERAs probably so it's just my brain muscle / PTSD memory. Our success this year has been an awesome offensive attack which when it's on we can overcome poor pitching. Like we did against L'Ville in the ACC tourney.

Addendum to C) What to do different?

We have Ramsey and DBo now and its a new team. So we are different. Very different.

 

[GTRambler]

“It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.” — Yogi Berra

“The future ain’t what it used to be.” — Yogi Berra

“In baseball, you don’t know nothing.” — Yogi Berra

So ... well. One never knows.

But our team is in a regional! And they’ve got a chance! So ... let’s all get behind our Jackets, and cheer them on!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

“It’s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.” — Yogi Berra

“The future ain’t what it used to be.” — Yogi Berra

“In baseball, you don’t know nothing.” — Yogi Berra

So ... well. One never knows.

But our team is in a regional! And they’ve got a chance! So ... let’s all get behind our Jackets, and cheer them on!

1) Lots of gold when we play Vanderbilt.
2) Our briar patch is away games.
3) It’s a 1 game series to stay in the winners bracket.

Just can’t look past Indiana State.

 

[randerto]

I know that many/most of you who post here are diehard GT baseball fans who have followed the team closely for any number of years.. As we head into the playoffs, would you say that
A) Danny Hall is perceived to be a great regular season coach but not so much in the playoffs?
B) Is this perception unfair? Not true? An urban legend?
C) Is there anything he has done in past postseason play that you hopes he does not repeat or perhaps he can use and apply going into this postseason?**
D) it seems deep pitching has been our Achilles heel in this playoff format. Would you agree/disagree? is this year's pitching staff deeper than what we have seen from past teams or about the same?

thanks in advance for any insight you can share.

** I know the term Quick Hook Hall appears regularly on this board. Is this true or something said ironically?

A) We're fortunate to have Hall as he consistently has recruited top offensive talent - enough to make us a respectable/competitive team every year. Like CPJ's Defenses, Hall has also consistently struggled having enough quality pitching depth with overall lack of development. But one could make the argument very few in college baseball have been able to do that consistently. I put our poor performance in the playoffs more on the players than the head coach - in recent years directly correlated mostly to pitching challenges.
B) An ATL urban legend from a recruiting and MLB draft perspective. But not from a pitching development perspective. Frankly, the jury is still out on our new pitching coach as he has not improved our overall ability to throw strikes (even with the new "lab") - just the opposite it appears. Maybe back to the fundamentals vs enamoured with the shiny new toys in the lab - not sure. All that sophisticated pitch calling with notes on forearms isn't working either...
C) Without enough pitchers who can throw strikes, not sure if we put that on Hall or the players... I personally put it on the pitching coach and players. Hall can pull them quicker, but who does he go to...
D) Agree. We're deeper this year relative to recent years in terms of how many pitchers can hit low to mid 90's but worse in terms of control. Pitching effectiveness is driven more by control. And remember control isn't measured only by BB and HBP but also balls thrown belt-high down the middle and wild pitches too. MLB draft potential is driven more by speed and perceived "upside" and we have more of that. So we are in trouble in the playoffs once again unless multiple pitchers rise to the occasion and perform to their potential (ie throw strikes). Grissom is a great example - you can clearly see the kid's potential and upside but he'll groove 2 out of 10 pitches belt-high down the middle - if he can improve his control, he could be awesome. Ditto across the board...

 

[4shotB]

C) Without enough pitchers who can throw strikes, not sure if we put that on Hall or the players... I personally put it o
n the pitching coach and players. Hall can pull them quicker, but who does he go to...
D) Agree. We're deeper this year relative to recent years in terms of how many pitchers can hit low to mid 90's but worse in terms of control. Pitching effectiveness is driven more by control. And remember control isn't measured only by BB and HBP but also balls thrown belt-high down the middle and wild pitches too. MLB draft potential is driven more by speed and perceived "upside" and we have more of that. So we are in trouble in the playoffs once again unless multiple pitchers rise to the occasion and perform to their potential (ie throw strikes). Grissom is a great example - you can clearly see the kid's potential and upside but he'll groove 2 out of 10 pitches belt-high down the middle - if he can improve his control, he could be awesome. Ditto across the board...

Thanks to both you and Nuke for your thoughtful responses. When Hall is recruiting pitchers, is it simlar to the MLB draft in that we recruit velocity and therefore perceived upside thinking we can teach them to throw strikes when they step on campus? Personally, I think control is similar to 'touch" on a QB abd basketball player or "feel" is to a golfer. Everyone can get better at these things with practice or and/or coaching but not everybody is born with the same amount. But, i suppose it is like every other sport, it is easy to identify the recruit who has both the speed and the control you look for but the quantity of those recruits is limited.And everyone is recruiting them, Or they are skipping college altogether.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Thanks to both you and Nuke for your thoughtful responses. When Hall is recruiting pitchers, is it simlar to the MLB draft in that we recruit velocity and therefore perceived upside thinking we can teach them to throw strikes when they step on campus? Personally, I think control is similar to 'touch" on a QB abd basketball player or "feel" is to a golfer. Everyone can get better at these things with practice or and/or coaching but not everybody is born with the same amount. But, i suppose it is like every other sport, it is easy to identify the recruit who has both the speed and the control you look for but the quantity of those recruits is limited.And everyone is recruiting them, Or they are skipping college altogether.

I think that while Hall may have the final say on recruits, the pitching coach has a very large input. Thus the previous pitching coaches provided input on who to take. DBo became our pitching coach on 19 August 2019. So his first class is coming in this year. I think we had the reputation of not developing pitchers as well as other colleges so that greatly limited our choices. Plus we used to mostly stay in state which reduces the selection (whether that was intentional or a result I don't know).

I think we should give DBo a pass on the continuing pitching mess until next season and expect pitching to get noticeably better (by ERA / WHIP / SO ratio). He hasn't had the time to develop the players given the remote aspects due to COVID and the facility was just finished this year.

I'll be doing an overall pitching post this week (I hope) as improved pitching is the last link in our team going to the next level.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

1) Lots of gold when we play Vanderbilt.
2) Our briar patch is away games.
3) It’s a 1 game series to stay in the winners bracket.

Just can’t look past Indiana State.

Can't look past Indiana State? No kidding. They are favored to win by one Warren Nolan site algorithm (R1 - rpi based as Indiana State is #33 rpi and we are #46)

But lose by another algorithm (ELO - see explanation below).

I like the ELO prediction better since it is more realistic with the larger spread. But who knows, it's baseball.

 

[gtrower]

Can't look past Indiana State? No kidding. They are favored to win by one Warren Nolan site algorithm (R1 - rpi based as Indiana State is #33 rpi and we are #46)

But lose by another algorithm (ELO - see explanation below).

I like the ELO prediction better since it is more realistic with the larger spread. But who knows, it's baseball.

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Probability of winning that game might hinge on whether they view us as a big enough fish to warrant throwing their ace or decide to risk us having a shaky pitching performance (reasonable guess at this point) and save him for a potential showdown with Vandy.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Can't look past Indiana State? No kidding. They are favored to win by one Warren Nolan site algorithm (R1 - rpi based as Indiana State is #33 rpi and we are #46)

But lose by another algorithm (ELO - see explanation below).

I like the ELO prediction better since it is more realistic with the larger spread. But who knows, it's baseball.

View attachment 10626

View attachment 10627

Yep, one only need to look at our OOC performance and say it’s a coin flip.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

Yep, one only need to look at our OOC performance and say it’s a coin flip.

This is why I don't think we need mess around and start anyone but Hurter unless he is unavailable for some reason.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Since Vanderbilt is a top 8 seed nationally, does the winner of the regional, if not Vanderbilt, take over hosting a super regional back at their place? Or is this year locked in onsite and won't move (can't remember what the regular rules are and if this year is different).

 

[JacketOff]

Since Vanderbilt is a top 8 seed nationally, does the winner of the regional, if not Vanderbilt, take over hosting a super regional back at their place? Or is this year locked in onsite and won't move (can't remember what the regular rules are and if this year is different).

In a normal year, if a national seed doesn’t win their regional, the super would be hosted by the inversely seeded team who hosted a regional. For example; Auburn won our #3 seed regional, and went on to play #14 UNC at Chapel Hill. If neither national seed in a matchup win their regional, the 2 regional winners would have to place a bid to host the Super.

This year I have no idea how it will be set up if neither national seed wins their own regional. I would assume the Super would have to take place at one of the existing host sites, but no idea who would get to choose the site or what basis they would choose on.

 

[eokerholm]

I won't use the quotes as it takes up characters....which are limited. Hopefully this makes it through....

Yes, pitching and bullpen has been an obvious and public issue.
As Nuke mentioned, lest us forget last year was Covid and difficult to get the guys reps and trained. Not many were able to do summer league either.
The GT pitching lab is brand new and opened in Feb/March of 21. Not sure what they did before.

The guys on campus now (outside of Huff and Medich) weren't recruited by DBo. He's dealing with what was previously recruited and left over from previous pitching coach and staff.
Not saying that is a bad thing, but it's a fact. As Sam and Andy (and others) have mentioned, directly in interviews and twitter, DBo has helped with their pitching packages and mechanics. It's definitely happening. There are no "major overhauls" at that level. You tweak what you got vs dramatically change something you've been doing for 8-10 years...

Tweaking takes time, repetition, and confidence.
They've got the metrics and that helps with what a tweak here or a tweak there does. DBo has posted before/afters multiple times on twitter as have others.
Here are a few. Change takes time and is happening, more with some than others, but happening just the same.







I'd say hold off judging DBo until after the next 2 classes of arms (21 & 22 are all pitching recruits he's been directly involved with) and see what you think of recruiting and what he can do with those recruited once on campus.

Like Ramsey said, you have to "buy into your role" and that is the case.

DBo was successful as a Pitcher and Pitching Coordinator. I believe he'll continue that trend here at GT - so much so my son is betting his development and career on it.
That speaks volumes.
Public data available on 21 recruiting class. (I haven't updated since last Fall)....
I know for a fact, Cody, Aeden, Logan, Christian have all improved their velo and metrics....Expect the same out of Cameron Hill.

FOR COMPARISON....
PG Data on MGJr...who is doing great as a true Freshman and getting better and developed...He's very good! I also think the press and the hype were due to his dad. Almost all the guys above have better PG career stats.
So think of 5-7 MGJrs coming on campus this fall! Now how freaking excited are you???

 

[senoiajacket]

This is why I don't think we need mess around and start anyone but Hurter unless he is unavailable for some reason.

I think I agree with this. Whether you lose in G1 or you loose in G2, you still end up playing twice on Saturday (I think) and have to play 5 games (winning 4 of them) to advance. It just "feels" like it would be a big momentum boost to win the first one and it keeps you in the hunt to stay in the winners side, so you have to give it your best shot. IIRC, that is Hall's MO in previous situations as well. So unless he has had a change of heart or DBo has some effect on him, this is what I expect to happen.

ISU started their #1 in the first game of their conf tournament (against the #6 seed) and he is very good. Has not given up more than 4 earned runs any outing this year and has not pitched less that 6.1 innings per outing (against Dallas Baptist, his one loss), since early March. He is the real deal with 1.93ERA and 97/13 K/BB ratio. He routinely goes 100+ pitches. I don't think we will score many runs against him and we have to go with our best.

I hope Hurter is up to the task. Our pitchers will (obviously) have to pitch "above" their heads (at least based on past performance) in order for us to advance. We need to minimize what we "give" to the other team in terms of BBs, HBPs, and errors, something that we have not been very good at this year.

 

[CuseJacket]

 

[FredJacket]

I think I agree with this. Whether you lose in G1 or you loose in G2, you still end up playing twice on Saturday (I think) and have to play 5 games (winning 4 of them) to advance. It just "feels" like it would be a big momentum boost to win the first one and it keeps you in the hunt to stay in the winners side, so you have to give it your best shot. IIRC, that is Hall's MO in previous situations as well. So unless he has had a change of heart or DBo has some effect on him, this is what I expect to happen.

ISU started their #1 in the first game of their conf tournament (against the #6 seed) and he is very good. Has not given up more than 4 earned runs any outing this year and has not pitched less that 6.1 innings per outing (against Dallas Baptist, his one loss), since early March. He is the real deal with 1.93ERA and 97/13 K/BB ratio. He routinely goes 100+ pitches. I don't think we will score many runs against him and we have to go with our best.

I hope Hurter is up to the task. Our pitchers will (obviously) have to pitch "above" their heads (at least based on past performance) in order for us to advance. We need to minimize what we "give" to the other team in terms of BBs, HBPs, and errors, something that we have not been very good at this year.

Here's a link to the Vandy website with schedule... All 4 teams play a single game on Fri and a single game on Sat. If you do end up on loser's side, but not eliminated after Sat (1-1), then you "could" play 2 times on Sunday if you win your 1st game Sun. You are correct in that if you are 1-1 after Sat, you must go 4-1 to win the regional. If you are 2-0 after Sat, then 3-0 or 3-1 gets it done.

Typo on latest version of this link/schedule, for Game 5 on Sun.... it should read Game 3 winner v Game 4 loser


https://vucommodores.com/baseball-postseason-central/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Looking at Vanderbilt's schedule:
40-15
SEC: 19-10
OOC: 21-5
Last 10: 5-5 (note this part).

Games won by 3 or fewer runs: 15 (38%)
Games won by 2 or fewer runs: 11 (28%)
Games won by 1 or fewer runs: 7 (18%)

In 1 run games: 7-1

What does this all tell me? Well, that they are beatable, but largely they don't beat themselves. We can't beat ourselves. They are good enough that they win the close games. They've walked almost 70 fewer guys than us. There ERA is 3.49 and ours is 5.80. We have almost 50% more errors than them. We have to play a clean game to be in it.

 

[THWG]

Looking at Vanderbilt's schedule:
40-15
SEC: 19-10
OOC: 21-5
Last 10: 5-5 (note this part).

Games won by 3 or fewer runs: 15 (38%)
Games won by 2 or fewer runs: 11 (28%)
Games won by 1 or fewer runs: 7 (18%)

In 1 run games: 7-1

What does this all tell me? Well, that they are beatable, but largely they don't beat themselves. We can't beat ourselves. They are good enough that they win the close games. They've walked almost 70 fewer guys than us. There ERA is 3.49 and ours is 5.80. We have almost 50% more errors than them. We have to play a clean game to be in it.

To be far, they have a far more veteran team than we do. I really don't think that they are more talented, but their guys have played a lot more baseball. If we do play them this weekend, one key will be to control the running game. Their leadoff hitter is an absolute burner.