Most likely wins this year

[Heisman's Ghost]

And they announced that the Duke game is a sellout this weekend against NC A&T. They will bring a good number but when is the last time Duke had a sellout. Amazing what winning does and sparks fan interest.

Everyone loves a winner while a losing program is an orphan. IIWII with very few exceptions. South Carolina being one. Sandlappers go to see Carolina no matter what.

 

[alagold]

If "likely" win means over 50% chance -we've had our ONE.The rest are up in air ---but NONE likely. The question I have is what happens after a 1-5 start?

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

If "likely" win means over 50% chance -we've had our ONE.The rest are up in air ---but NONE likely. The question I have is what happens after a 1-5 start?

So you're on record as saying that a 1-11 record is the most likely outcome?

 

[tmhunter52]

If "likely" win means over 50% chance -we've had our ONE.The rest are up in air ---but NONE likely. The question I have is what happens after a 1-5 start?

How did you avoid an Inappropriate Conduct slap from the moderator for even positing such a poor first half?

 

[bobongo]

How did you avoid an Inappropriate Conduct slap from the moderator for even positing such a poor first half?

Reminds me of the Monty Python skit where a poor sap is sentenced to hang by the neck until he cheers up.

 

[bensaysitathome]

So you're on record as saying that a 1-11 record is the most likely outcome?

I mean, statistically speaking, we could have a 49% chance of winning every single game left on our schedule. And 1-11 would not be the most likely outcome.

 

[alagold]

I mean, statistically speaking, we could have a 49% chance of winning every single game left on our schedule. And 1-11 would not be the most likely outcome.

You can make up any scenario with stats you want.The stat most concerning to me is we have NOT beaten the line in either game which means a lot of folks think we are under-achieving.That usually does not get you many wins.

 

[bobongo]

You can make up any scenario with stats you want.The stat most concerning to me is we have NOT beaten the line in either game which means a lot of folks think we are under-achieving.That usually does not get you many wins.

Obviously if that continues, we're doomed. Time's running out fast to turn it around. We need to get out there and send Mississippi back to Oxford on the L train.

 

[Heisman's Ghost]

So you're on record as saying that a 1-11 record is the most likely outcome?

It is far more likely than 11-1.

 

[ibeattetris]

Most likely wins:
VT, UCF, Duke.

I don’t see why UVA isn’t winnable, and we have them at home, but I don’t think they are same category at the other three.

Depending on the qb injury situation with Pitt, I see that as winnable.

Between Miami, fsu, and UNC I feel like we steal one.

Espn has us as 2.2% likely to win 5 more games, and I feel like that’s way off.

 

[bobongo]

Most likely wins:
VT, UCF, Duke.

I don’t see why UVA isn’t winnable, and we have them at home, but I don’t think they are same category at the other three.

Depending on the qb injury situation with Pitt, I see that as winnable.

Between Miami, fsu, and UNC I feel like we steal one.

Espn has us as 2.2% likely to win 5 more games, and I feel like that’s way off.

Any of the teams left on our schedule is beatable on a given day until we get to game #12.
I agree - a 2.2% chance of getting to 6 wins is way too low. I'd say more like 25 to 33%. Win this Saturday and that percentage jumps to 50.

 

[g0lftime]

It is far more likely than 11-1.

In probability theory the only way it is equally likely is for each possible outcome to have the same probability. For example a six sided dice should have equal probability for each possible number. Thus each roll would have equal likelihood of 1 through 6. Our remaining games do not have equal probability of outcomes. The UGA game would have the same probability of outcome as the WCU game and it doesn't. Each game is a probability of outcome that is different.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

It is far more likely than 11-1.

That wasn't the question. No one asserted that we were likely to go 11-1. The OP said we weren't likely to win any remaining games. What say you, since you chimed in, are you willing to go on record saying we are likely to go 1-11?

 

[BuzzDraft]

In probability theory the only way it is equally likely is for each possible outcome to have the same probability. For example a six sided dice should have equal probability for each possible number. Thus each roll would have equal likelihood of 1 through 6. Our remaining games do not have equal probability of outcomes. The UGA game would have the same probability of outcome as the WCU game and it doesn't. Each game is a probability of outcome that is different.

This is a pretty reasonable analysis of the probabilities of the remaining 10 games after the first two. Major injuries can of course change the outlook, and more results will change the model as more actual data comes in. I wrote before the season the most likely wins, in order, were WCU, Duke, UVa, and VaPoly. After the WCU win is in the books, the Binion Index holds the same view, except I think VaPoly will somehow end up as our annual lone road win and Tech finishes 4-8

 

[gorcone]

If "likely" win means over 50% chance -we've had our ONE.The rest are up in air ---but NONE likely. The question I have is what happens after a 1-5 start?

An 0-5 finish

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

An 0-5 finish

What happens in the 7th game?

 

[bobongo]

This is a pretty reasonable analysis of the probabilities of the remaining 10 games after the first two. Major injuries can of course change the outlook, and more results will change the model as more actual data comes in. I wrote before the season the most likely wins, in order, were WCU, Duke, UVa, and VaPoly. After the WCU win is in the books, the Binion Index holds the same view, except I think VaPoly will somehow end up as our annual lone road win and Tech finishes 4-8

Results so far do not indicate to me that Duke is the most likely win on our remaining schedule. I would rank them as follows based on both outlook and results so far:

UVA - looked okay in opener against an FCS team, looked bad against Illinois
VT - lost to Old Dominion, bounced back against BC
UCF - couldn't get by Louisville
UNC - seems overrated to me - no defense whatsoever, squeakers over three FCS teams but one of them was Appalachian State
Duke - solid win over Temple, win @ Northwestern
Miami - outclassed an FCS team, beat Southern Miss handily
Pitt - beat WVU, lost in OT to Tennessee
Ole Miss - two easy tune-ups
FSU - beat LSU


Ugag - Ugh

 

[ibeattetris]

UNC - seems overrated to me - no defense whatsoever, squeakers over three FCS teams but one of them was Appalachian State

Neither Georgia State or Appalachian St are FCS.

UNC squeaking a win over Appalachian is way more impressive than Duke beating a bad Temple team. It’s still so early in the year that more games will highlight what teams we should be circling on the calendar.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

squeakers over three FCS teams but one of them was Appalachian State

App St is FBS. Neither is Ga State.

 

[bobongo]

Neither Georgia State or Appalachian St are FCS.

UNC squeaking a win over Appalachian is way more impressive than Duke beating a bad Temple team. It’s still so early in the year that more games will highlight what teams we should be circling on the calendar.

I agree about UNC's win over Appy State. But giving up 60+ points? And the other two were unimpressive to me.
Duke beat Temple 30-0 and won on the road at Northwestern. I'm impressed by that enough to move them well off the bottom of the pile. I do agree it's early...