Most likely wins this year

IM79

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
425
Someone else has likely pointed this out already... but the Jackets are 3-3 & the combined record of the 3 teams they lost to is 16-1.

Keep chipping away... a game at a time. [Clichés blah blah blah]

Go JACKETS!!
Colley Matrix has our SOS at #6 in the country
 

WraleighWreck

Georgia Tech Fan
Messages
97
I have seen considerable improvement in two short weeks. The next two weeks are going to result in myriad improvements in ST as well as the continued development of the offense and fully cohesive growth for the D. Key has the teams mind right. We ground (grinded) out two tough wins. Now it’s time to put a beating on a team to show that we have the horses and right guy driving the team. Defense has already shown they can play with full team effort. Offense has been on the brink and I think the more reps they get(including talented young receivers- king, blackstrain and Blackburn) and more gelling of the OL and sims playing to his potential will result in some more points. Clean the red zone up and this is a potentially lethal team. Go jackets!
 

Thwg777

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
366
Updated numbers below. Nice to see the odds continuing to slowly tick up.

Virginia - 60%
Virginia Tech - 50%
Miami - 30%
North Carolina - 15%
FSU - 10%
Georgia - 2%

Back to an underdog in all games again… relative performance this week was poor to all except Miami. Miami may have the Guinness Book of World Records on hand at all remaining games in case they want to set new turnover records. Eight turnovers against Duke!
Virginia Tech - 45%
Miami - 35%
North Carolina - 15%
FSU - 10%
Georgia - 1%
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
7,092
Back to an underdog in all games again… relative performance this week was poor to all except Miami. Miami may have the Guinness Book of World Records on hand at all remaining games in case they want to set new turnover records. Eight turnovers against Duke!
Virginia Tech - 45%
Miami - 35%
North Carolina - 15%
FSU - 10%
Georgia - 1%
I would move UNC up to 35% due to their weak defense. I think we match up relatively well against them. We can mitigate their O and exploit their D.
FSU I would move down to 5% because of their strong DL.
 

BuzzDraft

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
227
I would move UNC up to 35% due to their weak defense. I think we match up relatively well against them. We can mitigate their O and exploit their D.
FSU I would move down to 5% because of their strong DL.
This is based on an algorithm, and you can't just manually move the data based on feels. It takes into account the UNC weak defense (and their offense can light it up) already as it adjusts and updates with each week's results.

On page 1 I had us beating WCU, Duke, UVa, and VaPoly... I got the sPitt and UVa games backwards. Other than that I still expect chalk results, Heaven help us if we can't pull out the VaPoly road game..
 
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Thwg777

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
366
This is based on an algorithm, and you can't just manually move the data based on feels. It takes into account the UNC weak defense (and their offense can light it up) already as it adjusts and updates with each week's results.

On page 1 I had us beating WCU, Duke, UVa, and VaPoly... I got the sPitt and UVa games backwards. Other than that I still expect chalk results, Heaven help us if we can't pull out the VaPoly road game..

This. Where models may be off is backups - especially QBs. I’d argue that lines over correct and penalize a team too much when the backup is in. However in our case, I don’t see this true. We’re 20 points underdogs to free shoes. I don’t have a great read on that. Seems 6 too much if Sims is ready and no where near enough if he’s not.
 

Augusta_Jacket

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
7,939
Location
Augusta, Georgia
This. Where models may be off is backups - especially QBs. I’d argue that lines over correct and penalize a team too much when the backup is in. However in our case, I don’t see this true. We’re 20 points underdogs to free shoes. I don’t have a great read on that. Seems 6 too much if Sims is ready and no where near enough if he’s not.

Not sure what to make of FSU. All their losses were to ranked teams and they beat LSU, which just knocked off Ole Miss.
 

Thwg777

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
366
Not sure what to make of FSU. All their losses were to ranked teams and they beat LSU, which just knocked off Ole Miss.

FWIW, it’s already jumped to 22. Assuming mostly sentiment of our QB situation. I was surprised to see it short of 21 originally. But it is a noon game and historically we play them well. It’s been over 20 years since they’ve covered against us. But not sure the relevance of either if we can’t move the ball…

And I’ll add to my running list of complaints… when a team gets a Thursday night game, both teams have equal prep time but then they often play another opponent off a bye (FSU in this case). I love Thursday night games but probably another knock (aside from attendance woes) to steer away.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,259
Not sure what to make of FSU. All their losses were to ranked teams and they beat LSU, which just knocked off Ole Miss.
I did not watch the game, but LSU fans tell me that LSU beat LSU in that game, not FSU... fumbled away two punts and missed the tying extra point ....sheesh!

However, given our QB play (a healthy Sims would give us a chance, but a hobbled Sims, or apparently his backups and we might not ore 6 points) so I think us winning would be a miracle.
 

Augusta_Jacket

Moderator
Staff member
Messages
7,939
Location
Augusta, Georgia
I did not watch the game, but LSU fans tell me that LSU beat LSU in that game, not FSU... fumbled away two punts and missed the tying extra point ....sheesh!

However, given our QB play (a healthy Sims would give us a chance, but a hobbled Sims, or apparently his backups and we might not ore 6 points) so I think us winning would be a miracle.

I did watch that game and I saw the opposite. FSU was winning by two scores halfway through the 4th quarter and then did their best to give the game away at the end. LSU did fumble a punt, but FSU fumbled on third and goal from the 1 to give it back to them. FSU blocked an XP to secure the win with no time remaining. I was actually impressed with both teams, but more impressed with FSU.
 

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
Messages
9,885
I did watch that game and I saw the opposite. FSU was winning by two scores halfway through the 4th quarter and then did their best to give the game away at the end. LSU did fumble a punt, but FSU fumbled on third and goal from the 1 to give it back to them. FSU blocked an XP to secure the win with no time remaining. I was actually impressed with both teams, but more impressed with FSU.
Agreed. I watched it too and LSU was lucky to get back in that game with a chance to win. But FSU was the superior team all night in that game.
 

bobongo

Helluva Engineer
Messages
7,092
This. Where models may be off is backups - especially QBs. I’d argue that lines over correct and penalize a team too much when the backup is in. However in our case, I don’t see this true. We’re 20 points underdogs to free shoes. I don’t have a great read on that. Seems 6 too much if Sims is ready and no where near enough if he’s not.
Our OL vs. their DL is a bad matchup no matter the QB. Don't throw you money away.
 

FlatsLander

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
841
I did not watch the game, but LSU fans tell me that LSU beat LSU in that game, not FSU... fumbled away two punts and missed the tying extra point ....sheesh!

However, given our QB play (a healthy Sims would give us a chance, but a hobbled Sims, or apparently his backups and we might not ore 6 points) so I think us winning would be a miracle.
FSU fumbled on the goal line on their last drive of of the game where they could have gone up 2 scores with like 2 minutes left. FSU let them back in.
 

BuzzDraft

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
227
I did watch that game and I saw the opposite. FSU was winning by two scores halfway through the 4th quarter and then did their best to give the game away at the end. LSU did fumble a punt, but FSU fumbled on third and goal from the 1 to give it back to them. FSU blocked an XP to secure the win with no time remaining. I was actually impressed with both teams, but more impressed with FSU.
Yep, that was the game I saw too.

F$U tried like hell to give it away late. Calling for a pitch to the RB right before he hit the defensive line on the one yard line? LSU caught several lucky breaks at the end. If not for the last minute wackiness F$U wins by a comfortable 14.
 

Thwg777

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
366
Back to an underdog in all games again… relative performance this week was poor to all except Miami. Miami may have the Guinness Book of World Records on hand at all remaining games in case they want to set new turnover records. Eight turnovers against Duke!
Virginia Tech - 45%
Miami - 35%
North Carolina - 15%
FSU - 10%
Georgia - 1%

Updated numbers below. The early kickoff benefits us next weekend, and I’m not convinced Miami is trying to win - cannot score a TD against UVA and somehow wins.

VT - 40%
Miami - 30%
UNC - 10%
u(sic)ga - 1%

We really need to win in Blacksburg. The parallels to last season are already here and a couple more losses could easily set up an awful scenario to end the season like last year…
 

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,179
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
Updated numbers below. The early kickoff benefits us next weekend, and I’m not convinced Miami is trying to win - cannot score a TD against UVA and somehow wins.

VT - 40%
Miami - 30%
UNC - 10%
u(sic)ga - 1%

We really need to win in Blacksburg. The parallels to last season are already here and a couple more losses could easily set up an awful scenario to end the season like last year…
At this point, 4-8 feels like it would be overarchieving.
 

BuzzDraft

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
227
I had us starting at 3-4 with hope to beat VaPoly as our 4th win of the season since last spring when the schedule came out... we simply have to beat Poly. The Binion Index showed that game as the last remaining win probablility over 50% left, and that was before the F$U beat down, which will certainly lower it.
I simply cannot stomach a 4th straight year of 3 wins and 9 losses (the shortened season would have been a 9 loss season too if we had played those two games). We haven't won 3 or fewer, nor lost 7 or more (much less 9 or more), in 3 consecutive seasons going back 100 years. This would make it 4 straight years of 3 or less wins, and 7 (ot 9) or more losses, and clearly cement the G**** C****** era as the worst stretch of Tech football in our formerly glorious history.
 
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