Latest D1 Projection

bensaysitathome

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
644
Northeast Stinger said:
Whenever I check in with this thread, which is pretty infrequently to be honest, I am struck by the total lack of excitement about this program.
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I think the fans that are upset are also pretty vocal. That's how that tends to go.

I'm hoping for more baseball. As disappointing as it was, I don't put a ton of stock in conference tournaments.
 
78pike

78pike

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
772
Techcaster572 said:
This is EXACTLY why I can't stand RPI

Strength of schedule outweighs winning/losing which isn't right

You shouldn't get punished for a win. Now losing is a completely different story to a bad team.
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I agree 100%. I don't understand why a team should get credit for playing good teams but LOSING to them. Beat them and that is a totally different story. But why give any team credit at the end of the season for playing some good teams and losing by double digits or even a few runs. The emphasis should be on wins and then further emphasis on quality wins. There should be no such thing as quality losses which is essentially what RPI does.
 
gtbeak

gtbeak

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
460
gtbeak said:
My updated bubble looks like this:

61) Coastal Carolina
62) Charleston <-- Must beat UNC-Wilmington twice tomorrow to win their tournament
63) UConn <-- Sorry Fitted, I'm being wishy-washy and put them back in.
64) TCU
65) Georgia Tech
66) Indiana <-- Lost twice to Nebraska today
67) Kansas St
68) Wofford <-- Have won 4 games this week, must beat Samford twice tomorrow

I sure hope Fitted Jacket is right about UConn, that might just get us in the tourney!!!
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Wofford beat Samford in the 1st game today and has put up a 4 spot in the top of the 1st in game 2. If they can get enough pitching to close that game out in would be real helpful to us as Samford's 88 RPI isn't going to get them an at-large, but Wofford's 50 RPI puts them in competition with us for a bubble spot.
 

Techcaster572

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
266
78pike said:
I agree 100%. I don't understand why a team should get credit for playing good teams but LOSING to them. Beat them and that is a totally different story. But why give any team credit at the end of the season for playing some good teams and losing by double digits or even a few runs. The emphasis should be on wins and then further emphasis on quality wins. There should be no such thing as quality losses which is essentially what RPI does.
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I couldn't agree more.
I get punishing a team for a bad loss, but it should be neutral for a win if it is a lower ranked rpi team. We run ruled Youngston State all FOUR games. That's absurd that we get punished for that. Ok...no rpi bump...I get that but to get punished for beating a lower ranked rpi is just plain silly.
I also don't understand the overemphasis on road wins vs home wins. So, our sweep of top 15 Nc State means less at home. That's ridiculous.
 

Lagrangejacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
330
Turns out this is not a new problem. I went back and looked at our weekend series over the past 5 years. If you exclude the UGA series (who we play every year anyway), the average RPI of our weekend opponents is 213. We’re 5-8 against UGA during the same period.

It’s making more sense to me now. Since the 2011 season, we have managed 3 winning conference seasons in 13 tries, one being the 2-1 COVID season. On the other hand, we’ve been very successful out of conference. And that’s because we schedule, for the most part, trash teams. CDH’s active wins leader status is largely built on beating up on overmatched teams.

2024:
Radford (16-34 RPI 254)
Cornell (17-21 RPI 212)
Youngstown St (16-44 RPI 284)
UGA (39-15)

2023:
Miami OH (21-35 RPI 245)
Tennessee Tech (21-34 RPI 249)
UGA (29-27)
Gardner Webb (31-25 RPI 154)

2022:
Wright State (30-27 RPI 143)
Gardner Webb (23-36 RPI 235)
UGA (36-23)

2021:
E Kentucky (21-32 RPI 198)
Kennesaw State (29-22 RPI 143)

2020:
Atlanta “Challenge” (3 teams combined 13-32 average RPI 259)
Ohio State (6-8 RPI 140)
UGA (14-4)
Bowling Green (2-11 RPI 254) - season canceled before series played
 

Techcaster572

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
266
I think it'll be close, but I think we get a bid.

I believe we are the only option at 8 for the ACC. 7 teams are in and we definitely hold advantages over Va Tech and Louisville. Miami is out.

Southern miss and wofford helped us out today in beating Samford and Ga Southern.

Duke winning ACC makes our weekend series win even better as Duke is now a host site imo.

ACC is best or second best conference for sure so winning 6 of 10 series is only behind clemson

Tomorrow will be nail biting but I think we squeak out a bid...Wouldn't be shocked if it was at Tennessee.

Either way, I just want to see more tech baseball despite my thoughts on coaching changes and the energy of the program.

Here's to hoping.
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,179
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
Lagrangejacket said:
Turns out this is not a new problem. I went back and looked at our weekend series over the past 5 years. If you exclude the UGA series (who we play every year anyway), the average RPI of our weekend opponents is 213. We’re 5-8 against UGA during the same period.

It’s making more sense to me now. Since the 2011 season, we have managed 3 winning conference seasons in 13 tries, one being the 2-1 COVID season. On the other hand, we’ve been very successful out of conference. And that’s because we schedule, for the most part, trash teams. CDH’s active wins leader status is largely built on beating up on overmatched teams.

2024:
Radford (16-34 RPI 254)
Cornell (17-21 RPI 212)
Youngstown St (16-44 RPI 284)
UGA (39-15)

2023:
Miami OH (21-35 RPI 245)
Tennessee Tech (21-34 RPI 249)
UGA (29-27)
Gardner Webb (31-25 RPI 154)

2022:
Wright State (30-27 RPI 143)
Gardner Webb (23-36 RPI 235)
UGA (36-23)

2021:
E Kentucky (21-32 RPI 198)
Kennesaw State (29-22 RPI 143)

2020:
Atlanta “Challenge” (3 teams combined 13-32 average RPI 259)
Ohio State (6-8 RPI 140)
UGA (14-4)
Bowling Green (2-11 RPI 254) - season canceled before series played
Click to expand...
Correct... if you remove all the good non conference opponents (UGA) from the schedule.... it's obvious we schedule bad non conference opponents.
 
gtbeak

gtbeak

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
460
I can see the difficulty in picking these last few teams. Thankfully, unlike football, we are talking about teams who will likely just be cannon fodder in the regionals and not teams with a legit chance of winning the championship. I'm certainly glad that football is making that issue better for next season, but they still have work to do in that regard. Anyway, here is my field of 64, not completely unbiased, I admit:

Last Four In: Coastal Carolina, Indiana, TCU, Georgia Tech
First Four Out: UConn, Kansas St, California, Xavier

SEC (10): Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi St, South Carolina, LSU, Alabama, Vanderbilt
ACC (8): Duke, Florida St, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Central Florida, TCU
Sun Belt (4): Southern Miss, Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, James Madison
Big Ten (3): Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana
Coastal (3): UNC-Wilmington, Northeastern, Charleston
PAC-12 (3): Arizona, Oregon St, Oregon
AAC (2): East Carolina, Tulane
Big West (2): UC-Santa Barbara, UC-Irvine
Conference USA (2): Dallas Baptist, Louisiana Tech
Missouri Valley (2): Evansville, Indiana St
Big East (1): St. John's
Southern (1): Wofford
Southland (1): Nicholls
West Coast (1): San Diego
Other Leagues (15): Clear one bid leagues

Notes:
Fitted may be interested that in the end he won me over, I left out UConn. Let's hope he is right, as I have us as the last team in, UConn the first team out.
Unlike D1 Baseball I don't have Florida in. As several have posted well earlier today, I'm not going to reward them for scheduling tough and losing.
On the flip side, Northeastern (IMO) has to be in. Next to what the committee does with us I will be watching the what they do with Florida and Northeastern next most closely.
The only clear stolen bids that I see are Evansville in the MVC and Tulane in the AAC. That may turn out to be crucial for us.
 

MWBATL

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,259
gtbeak said:
I can see the difficulty in picking these last few teams. Thankfully, unlike football, we are talking about teams who will likely just be cannon fodder in the regionals and not teams with a legit chance of winning the championship. I'm certainly glad that football is making that issue better for next season, but they still have work to do in that regard. Anyway, here is my field of 64, not completely unbiased, I admit:

Last Four In: Coastal Carolina, Indiana, TCU, Georgia Tech
First Four Out: UConn, Kansas St, California, Xavier

SEC (10): Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi St, South Carolina, LSU, Alabama, Vanderbilt
ACC (8): Duke, Florida St, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Central Florida, TCU
Sun Belt (4): Southern Miss, Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, James Madison
Big Ten (3): Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana
Coastal (3): UNC-Wilmington, Northeastern, Charleston
PAC-12 (3): Arizona, Oregon St, Oregon
AAC (2): East Carolina, Tulane
Big West (2): UC-Santa Barbara, UC-Irvine
Conference USA (2): Dallas Baptist, Louisiana Tech
Missouri Valley (2): Evansville, Indiana St
Big East (1): St. John's
Southern (1): Wofford
Southland (1): Nicholls
West Coast (1): San Diego
Other Leagues (15): Clear one bid leagues

Notes:
Fitted may be interested that in the end he won me over, I left out UConn. Let's hope he is right, as I have us as the last team in, UConn the first team out.
Unlike D1 Baseball I don't have Florida in. As several have posted well earlier today, I'm not going to reward them for scheduling tough and losing.
On the flip side, Northeastern (IMO) has to be in. Next to what the committee does with us I will be watching the what they do with Florida and Northeastern next most closely.
The only clear stolen bids that I see are Evansville in the MVC and Tulane in the AAC. That may turn out to be crucial for us.
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Don’t you know the old GT adage…”Good things never happen to us (athletically speaking)”

That ….is it a trend or belief? (You decide)…suggests strongly we are in the First Four Out category.

Hope I’m wrong…
 

Lagrangejacket

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
330
Hosts:

• ⁠Arizona
• ⁠Arkansas
• ⁠Clemson
• ⁠East Carolina
• ⁠Florida State
• ⁠Georgia
• ⁠Kentucky
• ⁠NC State
• ⁠North Carolina
• ⁠Oklahoma
• ⁠Oklahoma State
• ⁠Oregon State
• ⁠Tennessee
• ⁠Texas A&M
• ⁠UC Santa Barbara
• ⁠Virginia

Arizona is 31 in RPI, so maybe that’s good for us. Indiana State (RPI 10) is 0-2 against committees this year.
 
Killerbees

Killerbees

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
154
Watching the D1 live stream. They took Indiana, Costal and Charleston based on what they think the committee will do. They think GT will be left out.
 
78pike

78pike

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
772
Tomorrow will be a busy one for us Tech faithful. Watching to see if we make match play in golf and praying hard that the NCAA baseball Gods like our resume. As another poster said it is a while before football starts so it would be great to have some more rooting interest between now and then.
 

FittedJacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
501
gtbeak said:
I can see the difficulty in picking these last few teams. Thankfully, unlike football, we are talking about teams who will likely just be cannon fodder in the regionals and not teams with a legit chance of winning the championship. I'm certainly glad that football is making that issue better for next season, but they still have work to do in that regard. Anyway, here is my field of 64, not completely unbiased, I admit:

Last Four In: Coastal Carolina, Indiana, TCU, Georgia Tech
First Four Out: UConn, Kansas St, California, Xavier

SEC (10): Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky, Texas A&M, Georgia, Mississippi St, South Carolina, LSU, Alabama, Vanderbilt
ACC (8): Duke, Florida St, North Carolina, Clemson, NC State, Virginia, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech
Big 12 (6): Oklahoma St, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Central Florida, TCU
Sun Belt (4): Southern Miss, Louisiana, Coastal Carolina, James Madison
Big Ten (3): Illinois, Nebraska, Indiana
Coastal (3): UNC-Wilmington, Northeastern, Charleston
PAC-12 (3): Arizona, Oregon St, Oregon
AAC (2): East Carolina, Tulane
Big West (2): UC-Santa Barbara, UC-Irvine
Conference USA (2): Dallas Baptist, Louisiana Tech
Missouri Valley (2): Evansville, Indiana St
Big East (1): St. John's
Southern (1): Wofford
Southland (1): Nicholls
West Coast (1): San Diego
Other Leagues (15): Clear one bid leagues

Notes:
Fitted may be interested that in the end he won me over, I left out UConn. Let's hope he is right, as I have us as the last team in, UConn the first team out.
Unlike D1 Baseball I don't have Florida in. As several have posted well earlier today, I'm not going to reward them for scheduling tough and losing.
On the flip side, Northeastern (IMO) has to be in. Next to what the committee does with us I will be watching the what they do with Florida and Northeastern next most closely.
The only clear stolen bids that I see are Evansville in the MVC and Tulane in the AAC. That may turn out to be crucial for us.
Click to expand...
Hoping I’m right about UCONN and Big Least…
 
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