I don't have an issue with the idea that recruiting sets a baseline, but it is that, a baseline - not the final spot. Strong recruiting without strong development and in-game coaching will lead to mediocre at best results.
I don't think the big concern with Collins and his staff is whether they can recruit - they can, not at a factory level, but at a level that will put them in the top 1/2 of the ACC. But to get higher than that will require strong development and strong in-game coaching.
His first 4 classes have been 8/9. 5, 11, and currently 5th in the ACC. And have been 43/50, 25/27, 49/48, 24/24 overall. Now obviously the first class is affected by the change in coaches, and overall recruiting is better, but right now borderline Top 25 looks to be the ceiling unless play on the field improves.
I expect him to be here until his contract changes from a full payout to the $2.4M per year, and I think coaches in general deserve 1 full cycle of recruiting, but realistically Collins has to show significant improvement in W-L next season or his tenure is basically done as we are getting to a point in the tenure where prospects stop paying attention to your vision and instead look more at your results.