I wish you were not correct, DCS, but you are VERY correct. Again, this is not just 4-star and 5-star athletes, although the pool of those that want to is VERY small, but it is the overall student population in general. I tutor a lot of high school kids, and I see their "desire" (or lack of it) for a "difficult to get" degree. It is a rare occurrence for them to have the IQ, the work ethic and most of all, the desire for a real education. (as you say, play school) There are a lot more females that are ready for this than males. That was not true, or at least I don't believe it was, 40 years ago.
I am very excited for the new staff to prove this logic WRONG. I would be overjoyed if they could get a lot of high recruits and keep them eligible. I would be the first to say, "paradigm was wrong."