False Hope

[Peacone36]

We fired Hewitt, then put a bandaid on when we hired Gregory, now we are 11-12 years into basketball hell.

But the actual firing of Hewitt was not a mistake.

 

[GTJake]

No, I was advocating for it as well, "at the time" ... but in hind sight if you would have told me paying him $7MM to go away would buy us what we have had since, I might have changed my mind.

 

[Peacone36]

No, I was advocating for it as well, "at the time" ... but in hind sight if you would have told me paying him $7MM to go away would buy us what we have had since, I might have changed my mind.

I agree about the hire that followed. My thoughts on the matter ultimately got me banned from another site. But I think you have to judge each step individually and the program is in better shape now than when Hewitt left in my opinion.

 

[Bogey]

We'll see where we end up this year and we have alot of tough games to play but Pastner is here through year 5 imo, that is how his contract is structured and how GT wanted it structured.
If he doesn't have an NCAA team by year 5 I expect him to be replaced, but right now it is too early to make that call.

More importantly, firing him before that time is likely to do more to hurt GT basketball in the long term than help it.

First, if we fire him before year 5 his contract is fully guaranteed through year 5 so we would have to pay him the full remaining value of the contract plus hire a new staff. that would almost guarantee we would have to go cheap again (I believe currently only Christian at BC makes less than Pastner currently does).

Second, If you fire him after 3 seasons you are going to have a really difficult time hiring any coach to come here as they will see a school that doesn't really have their back when they know they were going to rebuild.

If after year 5 we have to replace him I believe we will at least be in the best position to hire a new coach as we have been in my lifetime. First, we have no other buyouts to pay. Second Pastner's buyout becomes pro-rated. Third, we are likely to be in a better place than we have been with our 3 previous hires. We may not be great, but I don't think we will be awful.
If we get to that point we have to be willing to offer at least $2.5MM and possibly closer to $3 for the next coach.

I don't know yet whether he is going to be the right long term answer - there are parts of the last 2 1/2 years that suggest yes and parts that suggest no. Keep in mind he already has more wins both overall and in conference than Gregory or Cremins had at the end of their first 3 years. 4 more wins would give him more overall wins than Hewitt's first 3 years and 5 more wins would give him as many ACC wins as Hewitt had his first 3 years (more losses also).

It's never been 'easy' to win at GT. We've had some strong stretches, but never a really long term sustained excellence. We've never had more than 3 consecutive seasons of 20+ wins (87-88 to 89-90).
Our best sustained stretch was from 84-85 to 89-90 where we had 5 20+ win seasons in 6 years. That's almost 1/3 of the 16 total seasons of 20+ wins we have had in school history.
Cremins had 1 20+ win season his last 8 years. Hewitt had 2 20+ seasons his last 6 (and 4 losing seasons), Gregory had 1 20+ win season in his 5 years (and 3 losing seasons).

In terms of having to rebuild i'd rank it like this
Cremins (GT was 1-27 in the ACC the 2 years before he arrived, included 4-23 overall, 0-14 ACC the year before). People didn't think GT could compete in the ACC, much less win.
Pastner (He came in off of Gregory's only 20 win team, but he was losing the top 4 players - and 5 of its top 8 - from that team with just one 4* returning player in Tadric and no 4* recruits and losing 75%+ of its production)
Gregory (he came in off of an awful 11-20 team, but one that did have talent as he had 4 4* players on his first squad - Rice, Udofia, Holsey, Royal - unfortunately Rice was a knucklehead and Royal overrated).
Hewitt (Cremins last squad went 13-17 and was the end of Jason Collier's time but Hewitt did have 3 Top 75 players on his first roster with Akins, Jones and Marvin Lewis and returned most of the team from the previous year.)

What Pastner has done so far is not out of line we any of the previous modern era coaches, until he moves one way or the other it is simply too early to make any decisions.

Red, I respect your opinion on basketball much more than I respect my own. But I think highly of our coach and his will to win. I know it is too early to commit long term, but I believe he will find a way to be successful at GT if given his 5 years.

Sent from my ASUS_Z01RD using Tapatalk

 

[dtm1997]

No, I was advocating for it as well, "at the time" ... but in hind sight if you would have told me paying him $7MM to go away would buy us what we have had since, I might have changed my mind.

You shouldn't have to change your mind.

LazyAD should have had to go fundraise for a new coach and not use a magical spreadsheet.

I was a Hewitt apologist almost to the end and I'm very grateful for what he did accomplish at GT, but it was time for him to leave after the Favors year, let alone the year after.

 

[GT11]

According to ESPN article by Jay Bills he considers GT as one of the top 68 teams

 

[Connell62]

According to ESPN article by Jay Bills he considers GT as one of the top 68 teams

61. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

A couple of early-season losses might have caused you to dismiss the Jackets, but this team handled Syracuse on the road and will go into Duke on Saturday looking to inflict similar damage. If Tech is going to take the next step, it has to take better care of the basketball (last in ACC turnover percentage) and make its free throws (ACC-worst 65.7 percent in conference games).

 

[GT_EE78]

the program is in better shape now than when Hewitt left in my opinion.

dunno, we had 4 4-star guys then versus 2 now, having him gone was a great relief and not knowing Gregory's future level of accomplishment was a pleasure for a while. paying hewitt/gaily to not coach more $ than johnson/cbg just means that all heads should have rolled at GTAA, somehow i can only speculate that it never really happened, at least there's minor positive trends in place now

 

[awbuzz]

But the actual firing of Hewitt was not a mistake.

Amen!!!!
Problem was the AD giving a roll over contract. GT got f**ked

 

[Peacone36]

Well DRad is now gone, Bud will be gone soon. Took longer than it should have but the opportunity for change is here

 

[Peacone36]

dunno, we had 4 4-star guys then versus 2 now, having him gone was a great relief and not knowing Gregory's future level of accomplishment was a pleasure for a while. paying hewitt/gaily to not coach more $ than johnson/cbg just means that all heads should have rolled at GTAA, somehow i can only speculate that it never really happened, at least there's minor positive trends in place now

Ever see the Wire?

“**** the ****ing numbers already.”

Check out USC this year, how are they? How many 4 stars they have? UConn? Washington? Zona? Texas?

The star system doesn’t win games. Evaluation, development, fit and system does. How many five stars does Cincinatti bring in? None. Davidson? K-State? Iowa?

Sure the blue bloods stockpile talent but sustainable programs recruit to fit and long term upside.

 

[GT11]

Ever see the Wire?

“**** the ****ing numbers already.”

Check out USC this year, how are they? How many 4 stars they have? UConn? Washington? Zona? Texas?

The star system doesn’t win games. Evaluation, development, fit and system does. How many five stars does Cincinatti bring in? None. Davidson? K-State? Iowa?

Sure the blue bloods stockpile talent but sustainable programs recruit to fit and long term upside.

So correct

 

[GT_EE78]

Ever see the Wire?

“**** the ****ing numbers already.”

Check out USC this year, how are they? How many 4 stars they have? UConn? Washington? Zona? Texas?

The star system doesn’t win games. Evaluation, development, fit and system does. How many five stars does Cincinatti bring in? None. Davidson? K-State? Iowa?

Sure the blue bloods stockpile talent but sustainable programs recruit to fit and long term upside.

that sounds nice and is very pc , but it doesn;t work. the star system isn't perfect but it's the only objective talent evaluation system out there.

 

[ramblinjacket]

that sounds nice and is very pc , but it doesn;t work. the star system isn't perfect but it's the only objective talent evaluation system out there.

I don’t really follow or understand the star system. In what way is it objective?

 

[Connell62]

Ever see the Wire?

“**** the ****ing numbers already.”

Check out USC this year, how are they? How many 4 stars they have? UConn? Washington? Zona? Texas?

The star system doesn’t win games. Evaluation, development, fit and system does. How many five stars does Cincinatti bring in? None. Davidson? K-State? Iowa?

Sure the blue bloods stockpile talent but sustainable programs recruit to fit and long term upside.

This post is likely in your All-Time Top 5!

 

[gte447f]

61. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

A couple of early-season losses might have caused you to dismiss the Jackets, but this team handled Syracuse on the road and will go into Duke on Saturday looking to inflict similar damage. If Tech is going to take the next step, it has to take better care of the basketball (last in ACC turnover percentage) and make its free throws (ACC-worst 65.7 percent in conference games).

I didn't read the article (yet). Did he mention our rebounding woes, or that our opponents average 15 more shots per game than we do in ACC play? Still, glad to see us getting some decent press.

 

[Peacone36]

-

that sounds nice and is very pc , but it doesn;t work. the star system isn't perfect but it's the only objective talent evaluation system out there.

Oh? How often do Duke and Kentucky win the title?

Look at the top 5 right now.

Tennessee-System, 2 studs who were developed, solid surrounding cast

Duke-Blue chip driven

Virginia- a 5 star, low 4 stars, defensive system driven because there is no evidence to the contrary.

Michigan-Mix of 3 and 4 stars, defense and system driven, well coached

Mich State-bunch of 4 stars but built on the defense and rebounding mantra.

 

[ESPNjacket]

I don’t really follow or understand the star system. In what way is it objective?

It creates subjective objects that are then misapplied. Stars aren't meaningless but they are far from accurate. Imperfection isn't meaningless but shouldn't be interpreted as objective fact.

Adding up stars, averaging stars, statistical analysis of stars are meaningless endeavors. If you had 5 centers with 5 stars, what exactly does that get you? An average of 5 damned stars and a team that doesn't have a chance to function.

 

[GT_EE78]

I don’t really follow or understand the star system. In what way is it objective?

objective in this case just means that the composite is an average of several (espn,rivals,scout) . lots of schools under perform relative to their talent levels but there's still a strong correlation between the top twenty rankings and top twenty recruiters (per those star ratings)

 

[GT_EE78]

-

Oh? How often do Duke and Kentucky win the title?

Look at the top 5 right now.

Tennessee-System, 2 studs who were developed, solid surrounding cast

Duke-Blue chip driven

Virginia- a 5 star, low 4 stars, defensive system driven because there is no evidence to the contrary.

Michigan-Mix of 3 and 4 stars, defense and system driven, well coached

Mich State-bunch of 4 stars but built on the defense and rebounding mantra.

you proved my point