Coronavirus Thread

[Deleted member 2897]

Its a guess so who knows, but i think 5% is too high. Italy/Spain are at 0.15% now but still rising gastronomically. Still, thats 33x. for worst case i'd be inclined to speculate at 2x or 0.3% so maybe 1 mil infected but i'd sure hope things flatten soon so we go way under.

That’s the most disconcerting fact - Italy has been under lockdown for quite a long time. But every day is yet another record worst day.

 

[GT_EE78]

up 17K to 102K for 3/27
the last 6 days (daily increase rounded to thou) 9,10,11,13,17,17
hopefully the flat day is a good thing rather than an anomaly with a spike coming tomorrow
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

about 19K for 3/28
the last 7 days (daily increase rounded to thou) 9,10,11,13,17,17,19
if u throw out the high and low increases,then we're averaging a daily increase of 1-2K
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

[Deleted member 2897]

about 19K for 3/28
the last 7 days (daily increase rounded to thou) 9,10,11,13,17,17,19
if u throw out the high and low increases,then we're averaging a daily increase of 1-2K
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Still averaging around 90% negative test results...and for people who have been pre-screened even.

 

[GT_EE78]

Still averaging around 90% negative test results...and for people who have been pre-screened even.

I heard that on TV news last night.pretty encouraging.... have u seen any websites that try to track testing?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I heard that on TV news last night.pretty encouraging.... have u seen any websites that try to track testing?

I haven’t seen any, so I’m spitballing - typically in the daily press conference, someone will mention “we tested over 125,000 people yesterday”, and then you can look at the positive test results from the last few days and get a rough guess. At the state level they are tracked very specifically, but I haven’t seen an aggregating website.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Its a guess so who knows, but i think 5% is too high. Italy/Spain are at 0.15% now but still rising gastronomically. Still, thats 33x. for worst case i'd be inclined to speculate at 2x or 0.3% so maybe 1 mil infected but i'd sure hope things flatten soon so we go way under.

In what would appear to be an about-face on his previous statements, Dr. Fauci has co-authored a report on the virus in the New England Journal of Medicine, in which he asserts that the mortality rate of the virus may be much closer to a bad flu. This is FAR lower than what he originally stated 2 months ago.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

The key paragraph from the article is
"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

 

[LibertyTurns]

That’s the most disconcerting fact - Italy has been under lockdown for quite a long time. But every day is yet another record worst day.

Uncontrolled borders, human trafficking, government incompetence, etc. I’m guessing every city that has a major outbreak suffers from the same dynamic.

 

[684Bee]

Uncontrolled borders, human trafficking, government incompetence, etc. I’m guessing every city that has a major outbreak suffers from the same dynamic.

...average age of population is old. Lots of smokers, so compromised respiratory systems, etc. There were a lot of factors that added up to a perfect storm for Italy.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

...average age of population is old. Lots of smokers, so compromised respiratory systems, etc. There were a lot of factors that added up to a perfect storm for Italy.

Lots of Chinese people and Chinese influence in Italy, not to mention direct flights to Wuhan

 

[LibertyTurns]

...average age of population is old. Lots of smokers, so compromised respiratory systems, etc. There were a lot of factors that added up to a perfect storm for Italy.

Good points. Throwing trash into alleys & letting it pile up probably doesn’t help either.

 

[RonJohn]

In what would appear to be an about-face on his previous statements, Dr. Fauci has co-authored a report on the virus in the New England Journal of Medicine, in which he asserts that the mortality rate of the virus may be much closer to a bad flu. This is FAR lower than what he originally stated 2 months ago.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

The key paragraph from the article is
"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

I have stated before that it is too early to make definitive conclusions about the mortality rate. It is still too early. The number of people known to be infected will increase, which will lower the mortality rate. Other people will die from the disease, or later from complications caused by this disease which will increase the mortality rate.

As to this being an about-face, I think if you pay attention to the medical experts and ignore the political spin and arguments, you will find that most medical experts have been discussing known data and potential complications. They, as a group, have not been discussing the end of the world or how COVID-19 is nothing to be concerned about. Politicians have been taking small pieces of what medical experts say to make political points, while ignoring other parts of what medical experts say. It is much easier to understand where things stand if you ignore politicians and 24 hour news stations.

 

[MWBATL]

I have stated before that it is too early to make definitive conclusions about the mortality rate. It is still too early. The number of people known to be infected will increase, which will lower the mortality rate. Other people will die from the disease, or later from complications caused by this disease which will increase the mortality rate.

As to this being an about-face, I think if you pay attention to the medical experts and ignore the political spin and arguments, you will find that most medical experts have been discussing known data and potential complications. They, as a group, have not been discussing the end of the world or how COVID-19 is nothing to be concerned about. Politicians have been taking small pieces of what medical experts say to make political points, while ignoring other parts of what medical experts say. It is much easier to understand where things stand if you ignore politicians and 24 hour news stations.

This is quite true. But you can indeed find different medical experts who make different projections. There is not yet a unanimity of opinion in the medical community about the issues which would allow for reasonable projections within a narrow range.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

In what would appear to be an about-face on his previous statements, Dr. Fauci has co-authored a report on the virus in the New England Journal of Medicine, in which he asserts that the mortality rate of the virus may be much closer to a bad flu. This is FAR lower than what he originally stated 2 months ago.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMe2002387

The key paragraph from the article is
"On the basis of a case definition requiring a diagnosis of pneumonia, the currently reported case fatality rate is approximately 2%. In another article in the Journal, Guan et al. report mortality of 1.4% among 1099 patients with laboratory-confirmed Covid-19; these patients had a wide spectrum of disease severity. If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

Well we can do all kinds of mental gymnastics. The Flu doesn’t kill 1,000 people a day. They say this is 3x more contagious. Seems pretty accurate as countries that have been locked down for a long time are still seeing record highs of cases and deaths. we have 2,200 deaths. At 0.1% that implies 2 million current cases in the country. If we have 2 million cases, we’re in a deep pile of ****.

 

[RonJohn]

This is quite true. But you can indeed find different medical experts who make different projections. There is not yet a unanimity of opinion in the medical community about the issues which would allow for reasonable projections within a narrow range.

The medical experts don't know what will happen. That is true. But when I say that people will understand better where things stand, I don't mean that people will know all the answers. I just mean that people will understand where things stand at the present time. I would use an analogy of a football game.(Since this is a sports forum) Ten minutes into the first quarter, you don't know who is going to win the game, but you know where things stand at that particular moment in time.

 

[RonJohn]

Well we can do all kinds of mental gymnastics. The Flu doesn’t kill 1,000 people a day. They say this is 3x more contagious. Seems pretty accurate as countries that have been locked down for a long time are still seeing record highs of cases and deaths. we have 2,200 deaths. At 0.1% that implies 2 million current cases in the country. If we have 2 million cases, we’re in a deep pile of ****.

Worldwide the flu averages between 700-1,400 deaths per day. In bad flu years it can be more.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Worldwide the flu averages between 700-1,400 deaths per day. In bad flu years it can be more.

In flu season up to 65ok people can die. Flu season is approx 13 weeks long. That’s 50k/week or 7k/day.

I don’t remember the world shutting down before. There’s something world leaders are not telling us. They know more about the origins of this virus than they’re letting on to. It has probably been bioengineered to be particularly lethal.

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

 

[RonJohn]

In flu season up to 65ok people can die. Flu season is approx 13 weeks long. That’s 50k/week or 7k/day.

I don’t remember the world shutting down before. There’s something world leaders are not telling us. They know more about the origins of this virus than they’re letting on to. It has probably been bioengineered to be particularly lethal.

https://www.medicinenet.com/script/main/art.asp?articlekey=208914

Those are higher numbers that were updated by the CDC in 2017. I used the previous numbers to be as conservative as possible:

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html

Direct from the source instead of from a third party. According to the CDC, flu season is October to May in the Northern Hemisphere and May to October in the Southern Hemisphere. There are peak times, but worldwide it is pretty much always flu season so I used the worldwide numbers divided by 365 to give an average.

Using the numbers updated in 2017 it comes out to 800 to 1,800 deaths per day worldwide.

EDIT: I am staying out of the conspiracy theory discussion. I have no desire to be included in any of that.

 

[LibertyTurns]

Those are higher numbers that were updated by the CDC in 2017. I used the previous numbers to be as conservative as possible:

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html

Direct from the source instead of from a third party. According to the CDC, flu season is October to May in the Northern Hemisphere and May to October in the Southern Hemisphere. There are peak times, but worldwide it is pretty much always flu season so I used the worldwide numbers divided by 365 to give an average.

Using the numbers updated in 2017 it comes out to 800 to 1,800 deaths per day worldwide.

EDIT: I am staying out of the conspiracy theory discussion. I have no desire to be included in any of that.

I think the numbers difference is whether the flu kills you outright or pneumonia caused by the flu does you in.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

That’s the most disconcerting fact - Italy has been under lockdown for quite a long time. But every day is yet another record worst day.

If you look at the world map and then select Italy https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html

Then on the right you will see the total number of cases. If you click on the logarithmic tab you can see the growth is flattening out. As scary as it seems for them, this is following a normal graph and says they are making a lot of progress. You could probably plot it out into the future and project new cases for the next 2 weeks fairly accurately. The death rate as we all know is going to lag, but continue for quite a while and will get a lot worse. China's death rate number is a complete farce

 

[RonJohn]

Well we can do all kinds of mental gymnastics. The Flu doesn’t kill 1,000 people a day. They say this is 3x more contagious. Seems pretty accurate as countries that have been locked down for a long time are still seeing record highs of cases and deaths. we have 2,200 deaths. At 0.1% that implies 2 million current cases in the country. If we have 2 million cases, we’re in a deep pile of ****.

To the point of how many infections we have now: Look at the doubling rate. Worldwide it appears to be about 5-6 days. Let's use 5 days for simplicity of calculations. It takes about an average of 20 days for a person to be infected, get sick, and then die. It doesn't matter what the mortality rate is when you are trying to predict future deaths;

• If the mortality rate is 1%, then 20 days ago 220,000 people in the US were infected. 15 days ago 440,000 were infected. 10 days ago 880,000 were infected, and currently 1,760,000 are infected. 1% of 1,760,000 is 17,600.
• If the mortality rate is 0.1%, then 20 days ago 2,200,000 people in the US were infected. 15 days ago 4,400,000 were infected. 10 days ago 8,800,000 were infected, and currently 17,600,000 are infected. 0.1% of 17,600,000 is 17,600.

The number of people who will be dead in 20 days is exactly the same at either mortality rate. It is just the number of people who will be infected without dying that changes. The doubling rate has probably been reduced, so the above calculations wouldn't be correct in the current situation.