Coronavirus Thread

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684Bee

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bwelbo said:
Dr. Birx said this morning if we stay at home, socially distance, wash hands rigorously and often, that a best case scenario is 100,000 - 200,000 deaths. So that’s not a worst case scenario, that’s their most optimistic view right now.
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There’s no risk to a bureaucrat being wrong on the high side.
 

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Wuhan is still on military lock down. Nobody can still come or go from the city. They just now started to let people out of their homes at least. 3 months and counting of a total military lockdown. Crazy.
 

MWBATL

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684Bee said:
There’s no risk to a bureaucrat being wrong on the high side.
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This.

First of all, the way I heard Fauci describe it was that there was tremendous uncertainty about the death toll and that it is just a model and that it MIGHT be 100,000-200,000.

Secondly, if the CDC estimated that deaths would only be 20,000 vs 100,000, and then actual deaths turned out to be 30,000.....they would be roundly criticized. This way they will look like heroes instead.
 
RonJohn

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bwelbo said:
Interesting article about airborne transmission.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/choir-decided-ahead-rehearsal-now-023414705.html
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That article is written a little misleadingly. It states that "experts" say this event is consistent with transmission via aerosol, but doesn't quote any expert saying such a thing. He does quote experts who say “This may help people realize that, hey, we really need to be careful,”, but he doesn't quote whether we need to be more careful about aerosols or about getting together in groups. The article says that nobody was coughing or sneezing. I don't believe I have ever seen a church choir practice where nobody coughed even once even if it was just from singing. The article states that they were seated in six rows with seats 1 foot apart and that the seats around the person describing the event were full. Those people were then using their lungs and diaphragms to expel lung and throat contents forcefully into the air. Even if they didn't shake hands or hug, there were droplets of body fluids being passed among the group.

I can't say that it wasn't transmitted via aerosol, but this article seems to go out of it's way to insinuate that without actually providing evidence, or even a quote from an expert who actually thinks it was.
 

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MWBATL said:
This.

First of all, the way I heard Fauci describe it was that there was tremendous uncertainty about the death toll and that it is just a model and that it MIGHT be 100,000-200,000.

Secondly, if the CDC estimated that deaths would only be 20,000 vs 100,000, and then actual deaths turned out to be 30,000.....they would be roundly criticized. This way they will look like heroes instead.
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Dr. Birx said this morning if everything goes extremely well, 100,000 - 200,000 deaths is the best case scenario. I saw it with my own eyes, I saw the startled look on Savannah Guthrie's face, so she drilled in and asked clarifying followup questions, and Dr. Birx reiterated that.
 
FredJacket

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bwelbo said:
Dr. Birx said this morning if everything goes extremely well, 100,000 - 200,000 deaths is the best case scenario. I saw it with my own eyes, I saw the startled look on Savannah Guthrie's face, so she drilled in and asked clarifying followup questions, and Dr. Birx reiterated that.
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As of today US deaths approx 2500. Also, the death count is a doubling every 3-4 days. At that rate, it only takes 3 weeks to get to 100k. I have no clue if we are (or can) arrest the rate enough to stay below 100k... but it seems reasonable to assert 100k is possible/likely...at some point and hopefully way farther out than 3 weeks (or never) because that would mean we've slowed the rate of death.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
 
RonJohn

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FredJacket said:
As of today US deaths approx 2500. Also, the death rate is a doubling every 3-4 days. At that rate, it only takes 3 weeks to get to 100k. I have no clue if we are (or can) arrest the rate enough to stay below 100k... but it seems reasonable to assert 100k is possible/likely...at some point and hopefully way farther out than 3 weeks (or never) because that would mean we've slowed the rate of death.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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Not sure if the data used in the Khan Academy video was accurate or not, but they listed the average time from infection to death as 20 days. That is probably in the correct range, even if not exactly accurate. That means that people who die today were infected three weeks ago. Real mitigation didn't start until two weeks ago, and in some areas even later. That means there is at least another week before the effects of mitigation start to show up.
 

MWBATL

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bwelbo said:
Dr. Birx said this morning if everything goes extremely well, 100,000 - 200,000 deaths is the best case scenario. I saw it with my own eyes, I saw the startled look on Savannah Guthrie's face, so she drilled in and asked clarifying followup questions, and Dr. Birx reiterated that.
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That doesn’t change my primary point, which was to agree that it is to her advantage to go with a high estimate.
 

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MWBATL said:
That doesn’t change my primary point, which was to agree that it is to her advantage to go with a high estimate.
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It would have been funny to watch you interview her instead of Guthrie. "You're saying that's your best case scenario? Is that really your low low estimate, or is it more likely that's your high low estimate. Meaning its the worst case scenario for the best case scenario." She probably would have frozen.
 
GT_EE78

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> based on UK estimates The number of Chinese infected was 1.2 million to 3.3 million
>websites need to start deleting the data reported by China
Scientific advisors have informed Mr Johnson that it is likely that China is also lying about the number of coronavirus cases in the country, downplaying the figures “by a factor of 15 to 40 times”.
British Govt Furious Over China’s Virus Lies, ‘Reckoning’ Expected Post-Pandemic
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/20...ese-lies-calls-for-reckoning-of-relationship/
 
GT_EE78

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>it's a start,hopefully we'll soon see rising recovery rates.
FDA Says Hydroxychloroquine and Chloroquine Can Be Used to Treat Coronavirus
On Sunday, the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) said in a statement that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine could be prescribed to teens and adults with COVID-19 "as appropriate, when a clinical trial is not available or feasible," after the FDA issued an Emergency Use Authorization. (EUA) That marked the first EUA for a drug related to COVID-19 in the U.S., according to the statement.
https://www.newsweek.com/fda-says-hydroxychloroquine-chloroquine-can-used-treat-coronavirus-1494925
 

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I don't get what I'm missing. The investment houses are forecasting around $2T deficits this year. We were already pushing $1T before the coronavirus. We just passed a $2.3T spending bill. Corporate and individual tax revenue will collapse. Add all that up and to me it smells like $4T for a deficit. To estimate a $2T deficit, you'd basically have to say tax revenue doesn't change (insane assumption), and only half their stimulus bill gets spent (insane assumption). I guess we will have to see if they revise it, but they haven't so far.

B3-GK422_Dshot_NS_20200330051121.png
 

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ramblinwreckguru said:
China is not a Success. Their data is bunk. South Korea is doing well though.
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South Korea is able to institute very draconian (almost-Chinese level) measures the rest of the world, certainly including us, cannot do. They track people's exact movements via cell phone technology, surveillance cameras, credit card transactions...and hunt people down, publish the identities who have tested positive, and so on. Quarantines are actively monitored and enforced by authorities. While it would be nice to slow the growth to a manageable level like they have, there are reasons why none of the rest of the world has. I mean crap, we can't get people to even stop congregating in large groups.

They also benefit from having gone through SARS and MERS before and they dismantled their CDC-equivalent regulations in that regard. They can go straight to private industry for help with testing kits and materials, whereas it took us what felt like a month to break through all our CDC and FDA red tape.
 
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