Coronavirus Thread

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

AUGUSTA (WFXG) - Augusta University Health says that the Georgia Esoteric and Molecular Laboratory at the Medical College of Georgia Department of Pathology has created an accurate COVID-19 test that can give patients results within two hours.

https://www.wfxg.com/story/41920538...2jPlyF545hBiQj7puDCUbtWycgOfJUL5MsarEIIvvAMEc

Thanks. I don't watch the news on that station, and I missed the first few minutes of the news on the station I do watch, so I don't know if it was mentioned there or not. Definitely good to know.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Am I the only one the saw irony in Pence's statements in the press conference today? He said that if you have no symptoms, you should not be tested to ensure there are enough tests available. Then he said the he and his wife are being tested this afternoon.

Well, they WERE exposed to someone else who has tested positive, so it make sense to me.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

And yes, I'm baaaaack, from Swarm purgatory. LOL

 

[bobongo]

View attachment 8029

One thing your personal example has convinced me of, Milwaukee, is that what you said about the academic requirements and rigors of Georgia Tech must be true - they would appear to be vastly overstated.

 

[Milwaukee]

One thing your personal example has convinced me of, Milwaukee, is that what you said about the academic requirements and rigors of Georgia Tech must be true - they would appear to be vastly overstated.

Nm

 

[RonJohn]

It isn't so much the immediate death rate as it is the fact that so many need hospitalization that we could very easily reach a tipping point in our health care system. Equipment and supplies are already running low in some places. We're going to have to create makeshift hospitals. And these factors alone will increase the death rate.

In addition to that there are reports of residual lung damage in patients who have "recovered" from the virus. And in estimating the death rate, a factor you didn't mention is the lag time of about three weeks between infection and the development of serious, life threatening illness. A tsunami of patients is about to overrun our entire system of health care, unless some treatment or cure is discovered fast. Real fast.

I wasn't trying to downplay COVID-19. I was simply responding to statements that the denominator doesn't matter when calculating mortality rate. If you look at statistics for flu this season there will be statements that the statistics won't be accurate until May or June. Flu is well known and well modeled. This virus is not well known or modeled yet people are trying to gain insight into it virus is and does with raw and likely inaccurate data. Epidemiologists do that, but at least they understand the limitations of the data.

 

[Milwaukee]

Super IS BACK!!!!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

That isn't how math works. If the denominator is infinite, then the mortality rate is zero. There are not an infinite number of humans, so the mortality rate couldn't reduce to zero. The US currently has 301 deaths with approximately 25,000 confirmed cases. That works out to a mortality rate of about 1.2%. If there are 250,000 or more actual cases, then the mortality rate is actually in line with the flu. It is extremely possible that there 250,000 or more people actually infected in the US. It is also extremely possible that there are less than 100,000 people infected. The denominator does matter because math doesn't change with fear.

If you choose to believe that the experts in the field tell us, then you have to believe that the mortality rate isn't known at this point because that is what the experts are saying. Several experts have said that they believe the mortality rate will end up in the 1% range, but they are stating rough opinion not fact.

that isn’t how the math works either. If there are 301 deaths, maybe there are 250,000 cases. But the deaths don’t stop now - 250,000 people would have it. You’d have to see how many of those die.

 

[jwsavhGT]

(CBS News) - New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on Friday announced an executive order that mandates 100% of the state’s workforce “must stay home, excluding essential services,” until further notice. That order does not apply to liquor stores, the New York State Liquor Store Association clarified later Friday.

"Liquor stores have been deemed an essential business and may remain open," the association said in a press release. "You do not need to reduce your workforce. This applies to all SLA licensed entities as per the SLA."

https://www.wtoc.com/2020/03/21/new...hJCeUhLZ0HUFJRwD-59YFvKuUwGya8O_zh89ZvOoqQKHo

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Am I the only one the saw irony in Pence's statements in the press conference today? He said that if you have no symptoms, you should not be tested to ensure there are enough tests available. Then he said the he and his wife are being tested this afternoon.

Because he’s leading our entire country. In a pandemic it’s probably wise for them, congressional leaders and so on to be regularly tested. He also was potentially exposed to someone in his office that tested positive IIRC.

 

[RonJohn]

Well, they WERE exposed to someone else who has tested positive, so it make sense to me.

Fine, but he said that you should not be tested if you do not have symptoms? If he had said that you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms or were exposed to someone who had tested positive, it wouldn't have stood out to me.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Lol healthy 30yr olds sometimes get the flu and die, stop being a drama queen and trying to get people riled up like the media. Don’t really stop though, please continue this thread. It’s friggin gold lmao.

You’re still ignoring science. The damage that this does to people whether they die or not is completely different. Stop denying science.

 

[Milwaukee]

(CBS News) - New York Governor Andrew Cuomo on Friday announced an executive order that mandates 100% of the state’s workforce “must stay home, excluding essential services,” until further notice. That order does not apply to liquor stores, the New York State Liquor Store Association clarified later Friday.

"Liquor stores have been deemed an essential business and may remain open," the association said in a press release. "You do not need to reduce your workforce. This applies to all SLA licensed entities as per the SLA."

https://www.wtoc.com/2020/03/21/new...hJCeUhLZ0HUFJRwD-59YFvKuUwGya8O_zh89ZvOoqQKHo

lmao

 

[jwsavhGT]

Fine, but he said that you should not be tested if you do not have symptoms? If he had said that you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms or were exposed to someone who had tested positive, it wouldn't have stood out to me.

It was announced last night that a staff member in Pence's office has tested positive

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

And yes, I'm baaaaack, from Swarm purgatory. LOL

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Fine, but he said that you should not be tested if you do not have symptoms? If he had said that you shouldn't be tested unless you have symptoms or were exposed to someone who had tested positive, it wouldn't have stood out to me.

I think that's more the decision of the task force team doctors than it is his. Although I don't necessarily agree with having to have symptoms in order to be tested, we still don't have a plethora of test kits being distributed to do much otherwise. And in his position, as with any in the main federal branches of government, I think known exposure is a good enough reason. Not that I wouldn't want to get rid of a whole lot of those in those positions, but not that way.

 

[RonJohn]

It was announced last night that a staff member in Pence's office has tested positive

That's what @Supersizethatorder-mutt said and I was responding to. Nothing political meant in my statements, I think he has been doing a good job of updating and being the face of the federal government. It just seemed ironic to me that there was a request to not seek out tests unless you are currently displaying symptoms and then a statement that he is getting tested without symptoms. That seemed to play in to the comedic twitter post that @CuseJacket posted.

 

[Milwaukee]

You’re still ignoring science. The damage that this does to people whether they die or not is completely different. Stop denying science.

I know, right? It’s CRAZY. Millions are all going to die if we don’t lock ourselves in at home!! Be responsible and quarantine. #socialDistancing. Let alone the fact that those are gonna die anyway when they catch it but that’s not part of the everyone freak out movement.
Let’s keep this thread going please, it’s entertainment since my local theater closed.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

It is incredibly humbling to be welcomed back by some of you the way you have. Others, I am sure, don't feel quite the same way. LOL

 

[RonJohn]

that isn’t how the math works either. If there are 301 deaths, maybe there are 250,000 cases. But the deaths don’t stop now - 250,000 people would have it. You’d have to see how many of those die.

So you do recognize that the data being published now is raw data? You recognize that the numbers are not accurate and are subject to change?

BTW: That math is good. ~300/~250,000 is ~1.2%. If the numbers change, then the result changes. X/infinity is still zero no matter what X is. If you wanted to get really into math, I would have to say that the limit of X/Y as Y approaches infinity approaches zero. A good mathematician would point out that you can't use standard definitions of multiplication and division with infinity because 1/infinity = zero could be manipulated to prove that 1 = zero. But then it isn't like we are on a forum with people who understand math.