Coronavirus Thread

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

Coincidence ???

 

[Deleted member 2897]

So you do recognize that the data being published now is raw data? You recognize that the numbers are not accurate and are subject to change?

BTW: That math is good. ~300/~250,000 is ~1.2%. If the numbers change, then the result changes. X/infinity is still zero no matter what X is. If you wanted to get really into math, I would have to say that the limit of X/Y as Y approaches infinity approaches zero. A good mathematician would point out that you can't use standard definitions of multiplication and division with infinity because 1/infinity = zero could be manipulated to prove that 1 = zero. But then it isn't like we are on a forum with people who understand math.

That wasn’t the point I was making.

Look at it this way. The same number of people in Italy died today from COVID-19 as have during this entire Flu season there. ONE DAY. That was my point - that you could pick whatever number for the denominator you want. When the numbers with this virus are so incredibly high, it’s obvious it is much worse.

 

[bobongo]

So you do recognize that the data being published now is raw data? You recognize that the numbers are not accurate and are subject to change?

BTW: That math is good. ~300/~250,000 is ~1.2%. If the numbers change, then the result changes. X/infinity is still zero no matter what X is. If you wanted to get really into math, I would have to say that the limit of X/Y as Y approaches infinity approaches zero. A good mathematician would point out that you can't use standard definitions of multiplication and division with infinity because 1/infinity = zero could be manipulated to prove that 1 = zero. But then it isn't like we are on a forum with people who understand math.

Actually, 300/250,000 is .0012, or 12 100ths of one percent. This is already more than double the rate of death of the last round of flu in the US, which was only a little over one half of one tenth of one percent (.0005). And we still have to wait about a month to get any idea of how many more of the 250,000 will die.

In the last flu season, 14,000 died out of an estimated 26 million infected. That comes out to just over half of a tenth of 1 percent.

 

[RonJohn]

Actually, 300/250,000 is .0012, or 12 100ths of one percent. This is already more than double the rate of death of the last round of flu in the US, which was only a little over one half of one tenth of one percent (.0005). And we still have to wait about a month to get any idea of how many more of the 250,000 will die.

In the last flu season, 14,000 died out of an estimated 26 million infected. That comes ou to just over half of a tenth of 1 percent.

Yeah. In my response I had the current percentage with ten times the number of infected. copy-paste error.

 

[LibertyTurns]

It is incredibly humbling to be welcomed back by some of you the way you have. Others, I am sure, don't feel quite the same way. LOL

Hey welcome back! Got called to DC and checked the site on the ride from Reagan National & couldn’t believe it. Politics on steroids up there. Nobody wants to miss their chance.

 

[jwsavhGT]

 

[bobongo]

Yeah. In my response I had the current percentage with ten times the number of infected. copy-paste error.

But I trust you do understand that if your 250,000 estimate is correct, coronavirus has already proven to be more than twice as deadly as the most recent flu, and we would still have to wait for weeks to find out how many more will die, and thus how big the percentage will ultimately be.

 

[bobongo]

Yeah. In my response I had the current percentage with ten times the number of infected. copy-paste error.

But you must have had ten times the number of dead to come up with that percentage. 3,000/250,000 would be 1.2%.

300/25,000 would likewise be 1.2%.

 

[Supersizethatorder-mutt]

View attachment 8032

 

[RonJohn]

But I trust you do understand that if your 250,000 estimate is correct, coronavirus has already proven to be more than twice as deadly as the most recent flu, and we would still have to wait for weeks to find out how many more will die, and thus how big the percentage will ultimately be.

It isn't an estimate on my part, just a number that is possible. I have seen averages of about 0.1% for flu. in the 2017-2018 season it was 0.13%. In the 2018-2019 season it was almost exactly 0.1%. From the CDC for 2018-2019

CDC estimates that influenza was associated with more than 35.5 million illnesses, more than 16.5 million medical visits, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths during the 2018–2019 influenza season.

These are only estimated numbers. Of the estimated 35.5 million illnesses, only 16.5 million included medical visits. How does the CDC know that 35.5 million were sick if only 16.5 million visited a doctor? They use models.

Currently with COVID-19, there are no models to estimate how many sick people have not visited a doctor. Even people who have symptoms and visit a doctor are denied testing, so are not included in the numbers being posted. Using the method to determine current infections from the Khan Academy video that I posted earlier, there would be at least 500,000 infections in the US at the moment. (That method while fine mathematically is still using extremely rough data, so can't be taken as accurate.)

My big point is that the data being distributed now is raw in the moment data. It doesn't mean what many people take it to mean. It needs to be vetted and analyzed. Raw data can be made to look almost any way you want it to look, depending upon how you present it. News organizations are doing an extremely horrible job of presenting facts. They are presenting what they believe will pull in audiences to watch their programs. In the press conferences, authorities have been doing a pretty good job of presenting things like "15 days to stop the spread". The "news" channels however, are concentrating on praising/bashing politicians and presenting scary pictures, numbers, commenters, etc. In my opinion they are doing a disservice. People seem to be more concerned about what the President did, wearing gloves, wearing masks, etc than they are about washing their hands, not touching their faces, and staying away from other people.

 

[MWBATL]

I don’t think the health experts and epidemiologists give a rats *** what any lawyers think.

Perhaps not explicitly, but they also don't give a rats *** about the economic damage they are doing to 330 million people in order to try to save...what, 10,000?

 

[LibertyTurns]

Perhaps not explicitly, but they also don't give a rats *** about the economic damage they are doing to 330 million people in order to try to save...what, 10,000?

Epidemiologists care about economic impact about as much as most Engineers care about how much their latest gadget costs to manufacture.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Perhaps not explicitly, but they also don't give a rats *** about the economic damage they are doing to 330 million people in order to try to save...what, 10,000?

No.

 

[GCdaJuiceMan]

It isn't an estimate on my part, just a number that is possible. I have seen averages of about 0.1% for flu. in the 2017-2018 season it was 0.13%. In the 2018-2019 season it was almost exactly 0.1%. From the CDC for 2018-2019
These are only estimated numbers. Of the estimated 35.5 million illnesses, only 16.5 million included medical visits. How does the CDC know that 35.5 million were sick if only 16.5 million visited a doctor? They use models.

Currently with COVID-19, there are no models to estimate how many sick people have not visited a doctor. Even people who have symptoms and visit a doctor are denied testing, so are not included in the numbers being posted. Using the method to determine current infections from the Khan Academy video that I posted earlier, there would be at least 500,000 infections in the US at the moment. (That method while fine mathematically is still using extremely rough data, so can't be taken as accurate.)

My big point is that the data being distributed now is raw in the moment data. It doesn't mean what many people take it to mean. It needs to be vetted and analyzed. Raw data can be made to look almost any way you want it to look, depending upon how you present it. News organizations are doing an extremely horrible job of presenting facts. They are presenting what they believe will pull in audiences to watch their programs. In the press conferences, authorities have been doing a pretty good job of presenting things like "15 days to stop the spread". The "news" channels however, are concentrating on praising/bashing politicians and presenting scary pictures, numbers, commenters, etc. In my opinion they are doing a disservice. People seem to be more concerned about what the President did, wearing gloves, wearing masks, etc than they are about washing their hands, not touching their faces, and staying away from other people.

Enjoyed reading this. Thanks!

 

[MWBATL]

We know beyond a shadow of a doubt it is more lethal. Doesn’t matter what denominator you choose. Choose infinite. The fact is in countries that have had it there awhile, more people are dying from it than the Flu. I choose to believe the numbers that are reported and what the experts in this field tell us. It’s also 3x more contagious.

I also believe experts in the field. Like the New England Journal of Medicine:
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%)
or Stanford Medical
Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.
John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

Blathering on about "Doesn’t matter what denominator you choose. Choose infinite." is not only trite, it is WRONG. Choose infinite and its lethality is less than the flu! The denominator matters!! (You would think someone educated at GT would understand that simple point.) As I stated in my original post, it is more contagious, but we still do not know the mortality rate and won't for some time. IT MAY NOT BE MORE LETHAL THAN THE FLU....read what I quoted above. Stop spouting nonsense! At least stick to facts, please, and if you are going to quote that you believe the experts, show us why. EVERYBODY is guessing currently...Fauci is guessing, the WHO is guessing, the New England Journal of Medicine is guessing. EVERYONE.

Facts matter.

And claiming that countries are experiencing higher death tolls from cover-19 than the flu is a stupid statement. Italy is certainly having a tough time of things, but South Korea loses about 15,000 people each year to the flu and has had 100 deaths from corona virus. China loses over 400,000 per year to influenza, and their death toll lis less than 10,000.

Look, I think it is wrong to claim cover-19 is no worse than the flu. It is clearly more easily transmitted, and certainly has a mortality rate we need to respect. The fact that we have no vaccine and no treatments for it (as yet) make it much scarier. But we should be sticking to factual information. SO MANY media outlets are posting the wildly higher death rates that use the current denominator, which is simply incorrect to use! But it makes it all look so much scarier that way.

I hate to see GT folks also using poor data in these threads.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I also believe experts in the field. Like the New England Journal of Medicine:
This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%)
or Stanford Medical
Reported case fatality rates, like the official 3.4% rate from the World Health Organization, cause horror — and are meaningless.
John P.A. Ioannidis is professor of medicine, of epidemiology and population health, of biomedical data science, and of statistics at Stanford University and co-director of Stanford’s Meta-Research Innovation Center.

Blathering on about "Doesn’t matter what denominator you choose. Choose infinite." is not only trite, it is WRONG. Choose infinite and its lethality is less than the flu! The denominator matters!! (You would think someone educated at GT would understand that simple point.) As I stated in my original post, it is more contagious, but we still do not know the mortality rate and won't for some time. IT MAY NOT BE MORE LETHAL THAN THE FLU....read what I quoted above. Stop spouting nonsense! At least stick to facts, please, and if you are going to quote that you believe the experts, show us why. EVERYBODY is guessing currently...Fauci is guessing, the WHO is guessing, the New England Journal of Medicine is guessing. EVERYONE.

Facts matter.

And claiming that countries are experiencing higher death tolls from cover-19 than the flu is a stupid statement. Italy is certainly having a tough time of things, but South Korea loses about 15,000 people each year to the flu and has had 100 deaths from corona virus. China loses over 400,000 per year to influenza, and their death toll lis less than 10,000.

Look, I think it is wrong to claim cover-19 is no worse than the flu. It is clearly more easily transmitted, and certainly has a mortality rate we need to respect. The fact that we have no vaccine and no treatments for it (as yet) make it much scarier. But we should be sticking to factual information. SO MANY media outlets are posting the wildly higher death rates that use the current denominator, which is simply incorrect to use! But it makes it all look so much scarier that way.

I hate to see GT folks also using poor data in these threads.

Choose infinite and its lethality is less than the flu!

False. If our entire country got it at 0.1% mortality, over 300,000 would die. Talk about poor data.

 

[FredJacket]

Choose infinite and its lethality is less than the flu!

False. If our entire country got it at 0.1% mortality, over 3 million would die. Talk about poor data.

Infinity > US population > How many in US will contract virus in absolute worst case scenario > How many are actually going to contract it

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Infinity > US population > How many in US will contract virus in absolute worst case scenario > How many are actually going to contract it

**** *** **** *** *** **** **** **** ****

it was a figure of speech to make an illustration.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Over a dozen students at a single state college in South Carolina have now tested positive (they have all since dispersed). I hope these people weren’t part of the spring break crowds.

 

[MWBATL]

Choose infinite and its lethality is less than the flu!

False. If our entire country got it at 0.1% mortality, over 300,000 would die. Talk about poor data.

You are conflating lethality (which is how many will die of those who get it) with contageous properties (which will indicate how many will get it). My argument is about the mortality rate, which applies ONLY to those who get the virus.