Coronavirus Thread

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Here is an interesting site that tracks motion. It shows large swaths of the country are still pretty mobile. This (non-compliance) could explain why all the new cases.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard#scoreboard

I’m not going to dig into this as I don’t have time, but one concern I would have on the surface is that the state I live in is actually seeing a pretty good drop in cases, yet we get a bad grade on that site.
 
RonJohn

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bwelbo said:
I'm not ignoring that. That's exactly my source of consternation. How are so many people getting infected on March 29th (for example), when that is well beyond the vast majority of social distancing and economic restrictions we put in place?
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When you add in the delays in some labs, some of the diagnosed cases listed on days last week could have been as old as March 16th. That was before even New York issued a stay at home order(March 22nd). Diagnosed cases is a bad metric.

Look at the IHME data for hospitalizations and deaths. Those numbers have to follow actual infections, diagnosed or not. New York is apparently at the peak for deaths. If true, that means that actual infections peaked about three weeks ago. Three weeks ago happens to be March 22nd, the day they issued their stay at home order.
 

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RonJohn said:
Look at the IHME data for hospitalizations and deaths. Those numbers have to follow actual infections, diagnosed or not. New York is apparently at the peak for deaths. If true, that means that actual infections peaked about three weeks ago. Three weeks ago happens to be March 22nd, the day they issued their stay at home order.
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Although it’s been admitted that deaths are being liberally attributed to C19, and then others claim they are being undercounted, so those numbers are murky, too.
 
LibertyTurns

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RonJohn said:
If true, that means that actual infections peaked about three weeks ago. Three weeks ago happens to be March 22nd, the day they issued their stay at home order.
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The conclusion everyone’s going to reach is the stay at home orders were extremely effective. The reality is the virus was plateauing before everyone was ordered to start staying at home. The biggest mistake that was made was not shutting down travel to Europe, etc much sooner. Out of fear of being castigated as a racist, the President delayed what he knew he had to do and that made America's situation worse. The outrage at my daughter’s college when they recalled study abroad’s and then prevented overseas travel for their 1-2 week special courses was outrageous. A large group was supposed to go to Rome, Milan, etc and the hysteria over that trip being cancelled was of biblical proportions. We will never get accountability from those attacking the travel shutdowns, etc but will scour the country to find an email from someone somewhere ringing the alarm bell that nobody supposedly heeded so we can attack political enemies.
 
MidtownJacket

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This presumes the path of exposure, infection to symptoms is static as well. When we know it is not, there are wide ranging differences between severity, duration and effect of this virus in different people.

That’s the problem with all of this conjecture about efficacy of the stay at home orders. It also presumes everyone immediately took them seriously, which is a hard to support position given that people are still arguing against their necessity or impact.

This article in the Washington Post showed a fairly basic but accurate set of models explaining why social distancing is effective. https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

The problem with models as opposed to data is they show what the likelihood of what “could” happen given varying factors, not a sure fire way to say what did happen. The data doesn’t exist in any meaningful sort of completion yet to say what did happen.

That all said, I find it almost impossible to believe that social distancing doesn’t have a net-positive effect on reducing the spread.


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RonJohn

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684Bee said:
Although it’s been admitted that deaths are being liberally attributed to C19, and then others claim they are being undercounted, so those numbers are murky, too.
Click to expand...

I don't think the number of deaths is as far off as some people do. However, even if you make an assumption that 10% of the deaths are not COVID-19 related, or if you make an assumption that there are an addition 10% that are not reported, the trend still shows the same thing. Even if you put a +/- 10% uncertainty on the numbers, they show the same thing. Social distancing is working.
 

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RonJohn said:
When you add in the delays in some labs, some of the diagnosed cases listed on days last week could have been as old as March 16th. That was before even New York issued a stay at home order(March 22nd). Diagnosed cases is a bad metric.

Look at the IHME data for hospitalizations and deaths. Those numbers have to follow actual infections, diagnosed or not. New York is apparently at the peak for deaths. If true, that means that actual infections peaked about three weeks ago. Three weeks ago happens to be March 22nd, the day they issued their stay at home order.
Click to expand...

Yep. I’m just trying to figure out why testing is so wrong if the numbers aren’t good. It makes no sense to me how new cases is still so high. Maybe it’s we’re testing 100,000 more every day and it’s by private or state labs that isn’t reported to the federal government. Maybe it’s because we’re doing a better job of testing the right people. Maybe it’s because people haven’t been doing a good job social distancing until the last couple of weeks.

On the news this morning, they said we are at 550,000 cases. That’s 25,000 more than yesterday and it’s not even lunch.
 

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bwelbo said:
Yep. I’m just trying to figure out why testing is so wrong if the numbers aren’t good. It makes no sense to me how new cases is still so high. Maybe it’s we’re testing 100,000 more every day and it’s by private or state labs that isn’t reported to the federal government. Maybe it’s because we’re doing a better job of testing the right people. Maybe it’s because people haven’t been doing a good job social distancing until the last couple of weeks.

On the news this morning, they said we are at 550,000 cases. That’s 25,000 more than yesterday and it’s not even lunch.
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If we take the position that the number of available tests have been steady for the last 7 days (Which I don't believe). If we also take the position that the number of positives is around 10% of the total infected in the population 7 days ago, that leaves a large pool of infected people who can be detected as new positive cases at later dates. Which is exactly what we are seeing. The number of new cases has been bouncing around 30K each day for the last week.

For me it all makes sense. I also do believe there are new infections happening at a much lower rate due to social distancing, but they are happening and they are probably significant numbers.
 

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Other than the false assertion that other countries have tested millions of people and we have not, there are some important things to think about here. How have some areas of the US been totally self-reliant and successful on testing but others are not? Why can’t some states that have struggled with it better emulate those that have testing under control? We are way way down this path now and some states still don’t have adequate testing? After all this time, how have they not been able to figure it out?

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/us-close-...missioner-121633346--abc-news-topstories.html

The U.K. in particular is one of the worst countries for testing in the world. Their 12% death rate bears that out. My cousin lives there and struggled with the virus for over 2 weeks and the doctor told her twice a day every day when they spoke “there are no tests”. That assertion and comparison to the rest of the world was dramatically incorrect.

My favorite demand from the news anchor was if the FDA had approved the new fast response test a week ago, how are there are not millions and millions of those available all over the country? I mean, LOLOLOLOLOLOL.
 

684Bee

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bwelbo said:
Other than the false assertion that other countries have tested millions of people and we have not, there are some important things to think about here. How have some areas of the US been totally self-reliant and successful on testing but others are not? Why can’t some states that have struggled with it better emulate those that have testing under control? We are way way down this path now and some states still don’t have adequate testing? After all this time, how have they not been able to figure it out?,.
Click to expand...

This is one of the reasons why I love our system of govt in America. Each State is like their own little laboratory of experiments with different ways of doing things. If you don’t like what is happening in your State, you have choices and can move to another. That’s a great thing.

others will argue for more federal control after all of this. I go the other way.
 
mts315

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bwelbo said:
Other than the false assertion that other countries have tested millions of people and we have not, there are some important things to think about here. How have some areas of the US been totally self-reliant and successful on testing but others are not? Why can’t some states that have struggled with it better emulate those that have testing under control? We are way way down this path now and some states still don’t have adequate testing? After all this time, how have they not been able to figure it out?

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/us-close-...missioner-121633346--abc-news-topstories.html

The U.K. in particular is one of the worst countries for testing in the world. Their 12% death rate bears that out. My cousin lives there and struggled with the virus for over 2 weeks and the doctor told her twice a day every day when they spoke “there are no tests”. That assertion and comparison to the rest of the world was dramatically incorrect.

My favorite demand from the news anchor was if the FDA had approved the new fast response test a week ago, how are there are not millions and millions of those available all over the country? I mean, LOLOLOLOLOLOL.
Click to expand...
I too do not understand the issues with testing. For example, I have a friend in Warner Robins who got tested 10 days ago and was told she would not have results for 10 to 14 days, still no results. My mother had to have a mastectomy at Mayo in Jacksonville this past Wednesday. Mayo required a Covid test be taken on Tuesday and got results the next day before the surgery.
 
Supersizethatorder-mutt

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bwelbo said:
Other than the false assertion that other countries have tested millions of people and we have not, there are some important things to think about here. How have some areas of the US been totally self-reliant and successful on testing but others are not? Why can’t some states that have struggled with it better emulate those that have testing under control? We are way way down this path now and some states still don’t have adequate testing? After all this time, how have they not been able to figure it out?

https://www.yahoo.com/gma/us-close-...missioner-121633346--abc-news-topstories.html

The U.K. in particular is one of the worst countries for testing in the world. Their 12% death rate bears that out. My cousin lives there and struggled with the virus for over 2 weeks and the doctor told her twice a day every day when they spoke “there are no tests”. That assertion and comparison to the rest of the world was dramatically incorrect.

My favorite demand from the news anchor was if the FDA had approved the new fast response test a week ago, how are there are not millions and millions of those available all over the country? I mean, LOLOLOLOLOLOL.
Click to expand...
But I thought that the UK's health system was the best in the world? HAHAHAHA
 
GoldZ

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Supersizethatorder-mutt said:
It would be impossible to see any kind of effect, one way or another, without also seeing a chart of the results if we had not engaged in social distancing. And that, of course, is impossible, because we DID engage in social distancing. What criteria are you using to say that social distancing didn't have an effect?
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We might get at least a general feel for this by looking at H1N1. It wasn't as contagious or deadly (meaning we simply got lucky), but we did next to nothing, and the final US infection rate was 60+ Million.
 

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GoldZ said:
We might get at least a general feel for this by looking at H1N1. It wasn't as contagious or deadly (meaning we simply got lucky), but we did next to nothing, and the final US infection rate was 60+ Million.
Click to expand...

This will be an interesting thing to compare when the dust settles. Right now the death totals are roughly equal at 20,000. The guess for H1N1 is 60+ million infected. Our unofficially official number infected today is 550,000 - what are the models guessing for actual numbers? Even if it’s 2-5,000,000, that’s a heck of a different mortality rate.
 

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When you’re so bored with the quarantine that you start messing with the trash men...

 
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