Coronavirus Thread

[RonJohn]

New York didn’t issue stay at home orders until like March 22nd. They didn’t close parks and playgrounds until April. They were actually very slow.

So think about this one again: “We are between 2-4 weeks using social distancing. If this disease has a 2-14 day incubation period, an approx 5 day increase in symptoms, it will be 7-19 days before the number of detected cases actually levels out.”

We are 21 days into when the vast majority of the country had a stay at home order. Social distancing started even before that. 21 days >> 7-19 days. We’re an entire week past the midpoint, and 2 days past the high end limit, and we’re still seeing record increases in cases. Makes no sense to me.

New York is about 20 days into the stay at home order. The approximate time from infection to death is about 21 days. Looking at the charts, deaths in NY have been slowing for a few days and look like they are about at the peak. Georgia is about 1 week into the stay at home order, but most local authorities instituted measures about a week before that so say 2 weeks. Deaths in Georgia have been increasing up to this point. The prediction shows that it will take another two weeks or so to peak. We will just have to see it that holds.

The main point is that if you look at states, the rate of increase in deaths has slowed down with a correlation to when social distancing orders were implemented.

 

[dtm1997]

What's been your experience, so far, with the PPP? I've been trying to gauge clients' experience with it. I know the bankers are swamped. I'm waiting to see what the response times are. How fast apps are processed. How fast money is disbursed, etc.

I applied for it and finished everything up on Wednesday. It was all done online through SmartBizLoans. My rep was very responsive and helpful. Now, it has supposedly been kicked back to my bank (Cadence) and I'm not really getting any good answers regarding an update.

Thanks.

The bank folk I know are all hands on deck with these. Pretty much everything else is on the back burner. Really strange. Now would be a good time to engage in some shenanigans with the bank 'cause they're not paying attention.

Hope you get the answers you want soon.

Thank you. I appreciate that. I know this was all dumped in their lap quickly and with ever-changing guidance, so it's tough. I'm not super frustrated or worried at the moment. It sounds like we are all in pretty much the same boat right now. I haven't heard of anyone else getting money yet, either.

• Bankers have been absolutely swamped answering questions & relaying facts as best as possible to Clients. Information began rolling in 2.5 weeks ago, changed 1.5 weeks ago, Apps started getting accepted a week ago, the supporting documents for upload appeared last weekend, changed this week, and will begin getting reviewed this weekend. This is what I'm seeing.
• Smaller banks & credit unions may be experiencing smoother processes because of lower relative volumes.
• Clients have been leaning heavily on CPAs & Attorneys to guide them through the process and determine their eligibility and line up the appropriate documentation they'll need for applications.
• Agree this is priority #1 for all of the Bankers.
• Banks are being extra mindful to review & verify data because the SBA is the ultimate approver here and Banks & Clients both want the loans to go through. Also, Banks are being mindful of potential improprieties or fraud. They don't want to get hung with the loans on the back end despite the Banks seeking to do the right thing.
• Owners would do well to not risk incorrect or fraudulent information. They'll either delay the funds or, worse, create potential for criminal action against them.
• It's certainly been clunky, but it's been one of the most fluid situations/processes I've seen in about 20 years in the industry.
• Just to reiterate, whether you agree with Gov't intervention or not, the horse is out of the barn, and Banks & Businesses alike want this process to move forward as quickly & smoothly as possible so as many people can be helped as possible.

 

[jwsavhGT]

Savannah Police Department uses drones to enforce social distancing

https://www.wsav.com/news/coronavir...HzVE_YSo8_OAZnwp29FAUUkhNbrGGaa08tHYHnHX6YPkM

“Due to the current health emergency, members of the public are reminded to keep a safe distance of six feet from others,” the Savannah Police Department’s drones voiced while they hovered above Forsyth Park.

The SPD is using five drones to monitor Savannah—utilizing two of those drones to enforce social distancing measures with prerecorded messages.
Sgt. Jason Pagliaro said officers will be following FAA restrictions while operating the drones—making sure they do not fly over crowds and other prohibited locations.
“We do not use our drones for random patrol, they’re not flying all the time. We use them in directed areas where the need is present,” Pagliaro said.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

The main point is that if you look at states, the rate of increase in deaths has slowed down with a correlation to when social distancing orders were implemented.

Our stay at home order was a few days ago according to the news. But we first maxed groups to 10 and had mostly shut down on March 14th. The only thing our official stay at home order did that people track is increase fines and jail time.

In terms of the most important point you listed, I thought we just hit our largest daily death total. I’m mainly flabbergasted by the number of new cases, given where our testing volumes have been.

 

[RonJohn]

In terms of the most important point you listed, I thought we just hit our largest daily death total. I’m mainly flabbergasted by the number of new cases, given where our testing volumes have been.

There are many issues with using the diagnosed number as a primary metric. Hospitalizations and deaths are a more indicative measure. Despite the 15 minute tests, according to the press conference a few days ago there are still labs that are not returning results until up to 7 days later. Take a look at the CDC website: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html The number of diagnosed cases in still increasing. However, when they try to map that to date of illness onset, the increase has flattened. Look at the IHME site for hospitalizations and deaths: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america The rate of increase in hospitalizations and deaths has gone down. It isn't exponentially increasing any more.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

There are many issues with using the diagnosed number as a primary metric. Hospitalizations and deaths are a more indicative measure. Despite the 15 minute tests, according to the press conference a few days ago there are still labs that are not returning results until up to 7 days later. Take a look at the CDC website: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html The number of diagnosed cases in still increasing. However, when they try to map that to date of illness onset, the increase has flattened. Look at the IHME site for hospitalizations and deaths: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america The rate of increase in hospitalizations and deaths has gone down. It isn't exponentially increasing any more.

Yea I totally see the exponential increase changed a long time ago. I just can’t wrap my mind around this level of increase with all we’ve been through.

 

[RonJohn]

Yea I totally see the exponential increase changed a long time ago. I just can’t wrap my mind around this level of increase with all we’ve been through.

What level of increase are you referring to? The number of reported diagnosed cases per day is not a good measure as I stated. Numbers reported for today include quick 15 minute tests and tests that were taken as long as a week ago. It has been that way for a while. I haven't seen any statistics on which tests are showing the most positive results, but I highly suspect that many of the positive results are from the older tests. If the numbers were posted by date the test was taken instead of date the results are reported, I highly suspect that late March would have been much steeper and the slope would have been decreasing since then. I get that from the actual curves of hospitalizations and deaths, which should be direct lagging indicators of actual numbers of infections. Those started on on an exponential curve, and have been decreasing slope for a while. The number of infections must have been following the same curves 2-3 weeks before hospitalizations and deaths.

 

[MountainBuzzMan]

Our stay at home order was a few days ago according to the news. But we first maxed groups to 10 and had mostly shut down on March 14th. The only thing our official stay at home order did that people track is increase fines and jail time.

In terms of the most important point you listed, I thought we just hit our largest daily death total. I’m mainly flabbergasted by the number of new cases, given where our testing volumes have been.

I dont really have a dog in this race, but here is why I think the number of new cases keeps going up. I do know that the quantity of available testing keeps going up. I think we can all agree that there was a significant number of un-diagnosed cases before. They were told to go home a get better unless they needed to go to the hospital, and then they were tested. I think that has changed significantly over the past week. People are starting to be able to go and just get tested. So the number of positive cases is going up.

Just my opinion, but I think it because of the expanded testing capabilities and verses the virus is getting worse and the stay at home is not changing anything.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I dont really have a dog in this race, but here is why I think the number of new cases keeps going up. I do know that the quantity of available testing keeps going up. I think we can all agree that there was a significant number of un-diagnosed cases before. They were told to go home a get better unless they needed to go to the hospital, and then they were tested. I think that has changed significantly over the past week. People are starting to be able to go and just get tested. So the number of positive cases is going up.

Just my opinion, but I think it because of the expanded testing capabilities and verses the virus is getting worse and the stay at home is not changing anything.

I don’t have a dog in this hunt either. I asked a question and all hell broke loose.

To your point, that’s what I would think. Except the number of daily tests got to 100,000+ several days ago but then stayed mostly flat. I tried just now to go try and find that chart to see if it’s changed since I last looked but I can’t find it. But there was like several days straight that testing volume was constant. That’s part of the reason behind my consternation - if we were testing twice as much as a couple weeks ago and testing volumes kept increasing, I could see an increasing positive case load even if the real world was getting better...because your testing volumes kind of mask the trend. But at constant testing volumes and the country shutdown, seeing the number of positive tests in a day keep increasing is just bizarre to me.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

In Charleston County, we only had 3 new COVID-19 cases today. We went from 328 to 331. Just 4 days ago we were adding 20-30 new cases day after day. Still only 1 single death total.

 

[Lotta Booze]

I don’t have a dog in this hunt either. I asked a question and all hell broke loose.

No, no, no, no, no. You made a statement.

We’ve tried almost a month of staying at home and it’s hardly making a difference.

And it's OK if you made a statement that was less than correct, but at least own it. From the same exact site that you sourced there's another graph:

That one seems to show some sort of plateauing at least. Right?

But you didn't show that, because it didn't fit with your complaint that "everything we're doing isn't changing anything". Ok, believe whatever you want to believe. Keep 0n complaining

 

[Deleted member 2897]

No, no, no, no, no. You made a statement.



And it's OK if you made a statement that was less than correct, but at least own it. From the same exact site that you sourced there's another graph:

View attachment 8187

That one seems to show some sort of plateauing at least. Right?

But you didn't show that, because it didn't fit with your complaint that "everything we're doing isn't changing anything". Ok, believe whatever you want to believe. Keep 0n complaining

No no no no no no no, as you say. What you posted is exactly what I’ve been saying. Not 2 posts ago I stated the exponential growth had ended quite awhile ago. What I can’t wrap my head around is how after all this time of being shut down are we still seeing record levels of positive new cases? That’s what your chart shows - that’s what I see too. How is it possible? I’m sorry my questions irritate you so much. I’m not trying to, it just makes no sense to me.

 

[RonJohn]

No no no no no no no, as you say. What you posted is exactly what I’ve been saying. Not 2 posts ago I stated the exponential growth had ended quite awhile ago. What I can’t wrap my head around is how after all this time of being shut down are we still seeing record levels of positive new cases? That’s what your chart shows - that’s what I see too. How is it possible? I’m sorry my questions irritate you so much. I’m not trying to, it just makes no sense to me.

If you still insist on using detected infections and ignoring metrics that can be measured more accurately like hospitalizations and deaths, then take a look at your data from the same website in logarithmic form:

Looking at that, the curve starts to slow down in late March. Is there anything that happened in late March that might have had an impact?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

If you still insist on using detected infections and ignoring metrics that can be measured more accurately like hospitalizations and deaths, then take a look at your data from the same website in logarithmic form:
View attachment 8188

Looking at that, the curve starts to slow down in late March. Is there anything that happened in late March that might have had an impact?

I’m not insisting on anything. LOL.

Again, your chart shows what is confounding me. We left the exponential rise, and now it’s linear. We’re 1 month into the shut down. As a lagging indicator by a month, I would suspect now might still not be the peak of deaths. I can understand why it wouldn’t be fair to “demand” a drop in deaths. What I’ve been focusing on is how after all this time new cases aren’t decreasing, given we’re not testing significantly more.

Let me say it to you this way, by illustration. In our county, our daily cases were increasing 20-30 per day a week ago. But then we didn’t freeze at that rate and keep going linear (like the nationwide charts above), we started only adding 15 cases a day, then 10, then yesterday was only 3 new cases. I see that in some areas, but it’s drowned out by many areas doing poorly. How is that possible? Do we have large areas of non-compliance? And where I am, we are testing significantly more too.

 

[RonJohn]

I’m not insisting on anything. LOL.

Again, your chart shows what is confounding me. We left the exponential rise, and now it’s linear. We’re 1 month into the shut down. As a lagging indicator by a month, I would suspect now might still not be the peak of deaths. I can understand why it wouldn’t be fair to “demand” a drop in deaths. What I’ve been focusing on is how after all this time new cases aren’t decreasing, given we’re not testing significantly more.

Let me say it to you this way, by illustration. In our county, our daily cases were increasing 20-30 per day a week ago. But then we didn’t freeze at that rate and keep going linear (like the nationwide charts above), we started only adding 15 cases a day, then 10, then yesterday was only 3 new cases. I see that in some areas, but it’s drowned out by many areas doing poorly. How is that possible? Do we have large areas of non-compliance? And where I am, we are testing significantly more too.

I am not convinced that our daily cases are still increasing at the same rate. I have stated several reasons why. There isn't universal testing. The number of tests did increase, and since many private companies are doing testing not could possibly be increasing and not captured in the daily tests given number you look at. The report date of the tests does not correspond to the date the person was tested because many tests are still in backlog. The date the test was given does not correspond to the date the person was infected.

So, a person who was infected on March 22nd might not have shown symptoms until April 5th. That person might have been tested on April 5th or April 6th. If they are in one of the labs with a backlog, they might not get their result until April 11th or April 12th. So that person who was infected on March 22nd could be counted as a diagnosed case on April 12th.

Earlier, I pointed to a chart on the CDC website which tries to take the cases back to date of onset of illness. That chart appears to have plateaued, but the data for illness onset is only valid up until March 30th. That is an attempt to ignore the date of diagnosis and project the data back to when the person actually became sick.

As I have pointed out, hospitalizations and deaths are much easier to measure. These measurements are not exact, but they are orders of magnitude better than diagnosed cases by day. Those measurements show that areas who shut things down earlier are now at the apex of hospitalizations and death.

I haven't seen any reports of large sections of non-compliance. There have been reports of small things like a church in Georgia that conducted normal close quarters ceremonies last Sunday and say they will again today.

The last question brings up a question. If there is more testing being done where you are at, how can the data on the number of tests not increasing be correct?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I am not convinced that our daily cases are still increasing at the same rate. I have stated several reasons why. There isn't universal testing. The number of tests did increase, and since many private companies are doing testing not could possibly be increasing and not captured in the daily tests given number you look at. The report date of the tests does not correspond to the date the person was tested because many tests are still in backlog. The date the test was given does not correspond to the date the person was infected.

So, a person who was infected on March 22nd might not have shown symptoms until April 5th. That person might have been tested on April 5th or April 6th. If they are in one of the labs with a backlog, they might not get their result until April 11th or April 12th. So that person who was infected on March 22nd could be counted as a diagnosed case on April 12th.

Earlier, I pointed to a chart on the CDC website which tries to take the cases back to date of onset of illness. That chart appears to have plateaued, but the data for illness onset is only valid up until March 30th. That is an attempt to ignore the date of diagnosis and project the data back to when the person actually became sick.

As I have pointed out, hospitalizations and deaths are much easier to measure. These measurements are not exact, but they are orders of magnitude better than diagnosed cases by day. Those measurements show that areas who shut things down earlier are now at the apex of hospitalizations and death.

I haven't seen any reports of large sections of non-compliance. There have been reports of small things like a church in Georgia that conducted normal close quarters ceremonies last Sunday and say they will again today.

The last question brings up a question. If there is more testing being done where you are at, how can the data on the number of tests not increasing be correct?

Im assuming you meant if we are testing more, how are our positive test results going down. That’s because of social distancing and our entire area being shut down. Parks and open fields have been shut down. Boat ramps are closed. Non essential businesses are shuttered. Also at the state level, our number of new cases is half that it was a week ago.

In terms of why are we testing so much if people aren’t sick (I’m assuming that was part of your question), I don’t know. We’ve always had prescreening here, and were still at 90% negative. Could be how bad the pollen is now. Could be our testing capacity continues to increase, and they’re testing medical professionals more frequently.

We were the first in the country to be approved for the testing reagents and second for drive through testing (over a month ago), so it could be our data is just more “clean” because we’ve been at this for well over a month. I’ve never heard we were at our full testing capacity.

 

[RonJohn]

Im assuming you meant if we are testing more, how are our positive test results going down. That’s because of social distancing and our entire area being shut down. Parks and open fields have been shut down. Boat ramps are closed. Non essential businesses are shuttered. Also at the state level, our number of new cases is half that it was a week ago.

In terms of why are we testing so much if people aren’t sick (I’m assuming that was part of your question), I don’t know. We’ve always had prescreening here, and were still at 90% negative. Could be how bad the pollen is now. Could be our testing capacity continues to increase, and they’re testing medical professionals more frequently.

We were the first in the country to be approved for the testing reagents and second for drive through testing (over a month ago), so it could be our data is just more “clean” because we’ve been at this for well over a month. I’ve never heard we were at our full testing capacity.

No, the question was related to an apparent contraction with your previous statements. If testing is not increasing on a national level, how is testing increasing where you are at? Could it be that with private labs taking over a lot of the tests, and hospitals doing tests in their own labs, that the number of tests administered is actually greater than what is being reported?

 

[RonJohn]

Im assuming you meant if we are testing more, how are our positive test results going down. That’s because of social distancing and our entire area being shut down. Parks and open fields have been shut down. Boat ramps are closed. Non essential businesses are shuttered. Also at the state level, our number of new cases is half that it was a week ago.

In terms of why are we testing so much if people aren’t sick (I’m assuming that was part of your question), I don’t know. We’ve always had prescreening here, and were still at 90% negative. Could be how bad the pollen is now. Could be our testing capacity continues to increase, and they’re testing medical professionals more frequently.

We were the first in the country to be approved for the testing reagents and second for drive through testing (over a month ago), so it could be our data is just more “clean” because we’ve been at this for well over a month. I’ve never heard we were at our full testing capacity.

And please don't ignore the point about date of diagnosis and what it represents. If a person became infected on March 29, they possibly wouldn't show symptoms until today. That means that even if they get the 15 minute test instead of one at a lab with a backlog, they won't be listed as diagnosed until today or tomorrow. Infected two weeks ago, counted on your chart as diagnosed today.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

And please don't ignore the point about date of diagnosis and what it represents. If a person became infected on March 29, they possibly wouldn't show symptoms until today. That means that even if they get the 15 minute test instead of one at a lab with a backlog, they won't be listed as diagnosed until today or tomorrow. Infected two weeks ago, counted on your chart as diagnosed today.

I'm not ignoring that. That's exactly my source of consternation. How are so many people getting infected on March 29th (for example), when that is well beyond the vast majority of social distancing and economic restrictions we put in place?

 

[Deleted member 2897]

No, the question was related to an apparent contraction with your previous statements. If testing is not increasing on a national level, how is testing increasing where you are at? Could it be that with private labs taking over a lot of the tests, and hospitals doing tests in their own labs, that the number of tests administered is actually greater than what is being reported?

I'm not sure what you mean by contradiction (you got autocorrected to contraction, which is a good iPhone pun), that's been my point the entire time. Some areas show improvement uncorrelated to test volumes, but not at the national level.

At our state level, they report both state run and private tests. It is dependent upon what's reported to them in both regards obviously, but people are supposed to be sharing their data.

Its a good question, and it could be why I am so confused. Maybe we are testing 100-120,000 people a day on paper, but we're actually testing 200,000+ a day and much of it isn't getting reported in the data.