Conference Realignment

[GTNavyNuke]

We're closing in on a year since the initial lawsuit was filed in NC and three difference appeals courts have pre-trial motions to consider. No one thinks either side will accept whatever ruling results, so we will be waiting, at some point, for higher courts to rule. The sovereign immunity motions could go all the way to the SCOTUS. The ACC is happy to let this play out in court for years because the status quo is their desired end result. And the status quo remains while the courts sit on these cases.

Thanks, I was looking for a short term expectation.

BLUF; no change for three years for fsu or Clemson to leave.

Is there any real likelihood that we will add teams in the next three years? I've seen conflicting Internet speculation.

 

[orientalnc]

Thanks, I was looking for a short term expectation.

BLUF; no change for three years for fsu or Clemson to leave.

Is there any real likelihood that we will add teams in the next three years? I've seen conflicting Internet speculation.

Anything anyone could say at this point is speculation. If I were speculating, the most likely additions would be Washington State and Oregon State. But, I have not given it much thought as I don't think it's happening anytime soon.

 

[stinger78]

Thanks, I was looking for a short term expectation.

BLUF; no change for three years for fsu or Clemson to leave.

Is there any real likelihood that we will add teams in the next three years? I've seen conflicting Internet speculation.

Why add? And if so, who?

The ACC sits at 17.5 football programs. That’s a lot of shares. I can’t see any program voluntarily leaving the B1G/SECheat, so it would have to come from the B12. WVU and UCF are probably the two that make the most sense if Clem and F$U somehow vacate, maybe USF. I can’t see that happening.

 

[UgaBlows]

Why add? And if so, who?

The ACC sits at 17.5 football programs. That’s a lot of shares. I can’t see any program voluntarily leaving the B1G/SECheat, so it would have to come from the B12. WVU and UCF are probably the two that make the most sense if Clem and F$U somehow vacate,

Those schools are not leaving the B12, they are locked into a GOR just like us

 

[orientalnc]

Why add? And if so, who?

The ACC sits at 17.5 football programs. That’s a lot of shares. I can’t see any program voluntarily leaving the B1G/SECheat, so it would have to come from the B12. WVU and UCF are probably the two that make the most sense if Clem and F$U somehow vacate, maybe USF. I can’t see that happening.

The problem with UCF is the makeup of the university is very different from other ACC schools. 87% of UCF students live off campus. WVU is simply not in the same academic category as other ACC schools. Actually, Washington State and Oregon State are more like WVU than other ACC schools.

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

Can you post other links? I’m unable to see them..

I've tried copying them here and pasting the links here, but I can't get either to work. I'm also not the most computer literate person in the world so that's working against me as well. Other posters have described the billboard pretty accurately.

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

Since I plan on locking this thread when we hit 999 pages, we can safely say this thread has hit the Bon Jovi Point...

Aw c'mon @Augusta_Jacket, @Techster and @RonJohn have too much equity in this thread to deny them 1,000 pages. Give the people what they want!

 

[WreckinGT]

We're closing in on a year since the initial lawsuit was filed in NC and three difference appeals courts have pre-trial motions to consider. No one thinks either side will accept whatever ruling results, so we will be waiting, at some point, for higher courts to rule. The sovereign immunity motions could go all the way to the SCOTUS. The ACC is happy to let this play out in court for years because the status quo is their desired end result. And the status quo remains while the courts sit on these cases.

Yes, it moves at a snails pace and will continue to. I wouldn't be surprised if more lawsuits are coming at some point as well. Millions of dollars will be paid to lawyers when it could be in the teams budgets. A dark cloud will stay over the conference the entire time while other conferences are moving on and getting stronger. All so you can force unhappy conference members to stay in the conference a little while longer and get pretty much nothing from them at the end. All talk of the ACC for years will be about this. Not about anything the conference has achieved. There will come a time when everyone gets tired of it and wants to move on. A dollar figure will be agreed upon.

 

[WreckinGT]

Why add? And if so, who?

The ACC sits at 17.5 football programs. That’s a lot of shares. I can’t see any program voluntarily leaving the B1G/SECheat, so it would have to come from the B12. WVU and UCF are probably the two that make the most sense if Clem and F$U somehow vacate, maybe USF. I can’t see that happening.

Honestly, why would anyone leave the B12 for the ACC right now?

 

[RonJohn]

Honestly, why would anyone leave the B12 for the ACC right now?

Nobody is leaving the Big12 because of their GOR. Also, nobody is leaving the ACC anytime soon for the same reason.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Honestly, why would anyone leave the B12 for the ACC right now?

Slightly better $ and less travel for the two schools listed in the example you replied to. Though GORs say no one is going anywhere.

 

[RonJohn]

Yes, it moves at a snails pace and will continue to. I wouldn't be surprised if more lawsuits are coming at some point as well. Millions of dollars will be paid to lawyers when it could be in the teams budgets. A dark cloud will stay over the conference the entire time while other conferences are moving on and getting stronger. All so you can force unhappy conference members to stay in the conference a little while longer and get pretty much nothing from them at the end. All talk of the ACC for years will be about this. Not about anything the conference has achieved. There will come a time when everyone gets tired of it and wants to move on. A dollar figure will be agreed upon.

I think it is very likely that before long all of the people that salivate over every overblown post that Swaim and the other Twitter people make will get tired of hearing the same thing over and over when none of it actually happens. Those people will stop pushing the hype because it stops drawing eyeballs. Those people will probably be talking about something entirely different, and their audience will have totally forgotten about the lawsuits and controversy before anything substantive actually happens.

 

[WreckinGT]

Nobody is leaving the Big12 because of their GOR. Also, nobody is leaving the ACC anytime soon for the same reason.

Pretend the GOR didn't exist. Why would any team want to be in the ACC over the Big 12 right now? Our two biggest football brands are suing the conference and have reportedly been in talks with the Big 12. They get to renegotiate their contract 5 years before we do. That have stability where as we are a trainwreck currently. Nobody is leaving that situation to join ours. We have to get our house in order before anyone would want to be a part of it. Its a legitimate possibility that the ACC doesn't even exist in 12 years.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Pretend the GOR didn't exist. Why would any team want to be in the ACC over the Big 12 right now? Our two biggest football brands are suing the conference and have reportedly been in talks with the Big 12. They get to renegotiate their contract 5 years before we do. That have stability where as we are a trainwreck currently. Nobody is leaving that situation to join ours. We have to get our house in order before anyone would want to be a part of it. Its a legitimate possibility that the ACC doesn't even exist in 12 years.

WVU would bail and join the ACC in a skinny minute if we gave them the chance. It's a very real possibility that UCF would as well. They would make more money in the ACC and have to travel less distance for games, therefor saving them money.

Also, FSU is likely to find themselves without a good conference option when the smoke clears. It is doubtful that the SEC wants them, as they already own the Florida market and they don't have the academics (yet) for the B1G, who isn't paying full shares anyways, as Oregon and Washington can attest. (Miami would be the target Florida school for the B1G) Same argument apply to Clemson. FSU would be stuck either going to the Big-12, remaining in the ACC, or becoming an Independent and trying to sign their own TV deal. I would bet on the latter as even with FSU and possibly Clemson, the money the Big-12 gets won't approach the SEC/B1G deals.

 

[RonJohn]

Pretend the GOR didn't exist. Why would any team want to be in the ACC over the Big 12 right now? Our two biggest football brands are suing the conference and have reportedly been in talks with the Big 12. They get to renegotiate their contract 5 years before we do. That have stability where as we are a trainwreck currently. Nobody is leaving that situation to join ours. We have to get our house in order before anyone would want to be a part of it. Its a legitimate possibility that the ACC doesn't even exist in 12 years.

The two biggest brands of the Big12 left a few days ago. The Big12 IS currently the ACC after FSU and Clemson leave. If you question is -- Why would anyone want to join the ACC if FSU and Clemson leave? -- Then you would also have to ask yourself -- Why would anyone want to be in the current Big12? -- The ACC currently makes more per team per year than the Big12. The projectsions show the ACC making more per team per year in the future than the Big12.

However, the GOR does exist. Nobody is going to leave the Big12 in the next few years. Nobody is going to leave the ACC in the next few years either.

 

[WreckinGT]

WVU would bail and join the ACC in a skinny minute if we gave them the chance. It's a very real possibility that UCF would as well. They would make more money in the ACC and have to travel less distance for games, therefor saving them money.

Also, FSU is likely to find themselves without a good conference option when the smoke clears. It is doubtful that the SEC wants them, as they already own the Florida market and they don't have the academics (yet) for the B1G, who isn't paying full shares anyways, as Oregon and Washington can attest. (Miami would be the target Florida school for the B1G) Same argument apply to Clemson. FSU would be stuck either going to the Big-12, remaining in the ACC, or becoming an Independent and trying to sign their own TV deal. I would bet on the latter as even with FSU and possibly Clemson, the money the Big-12 gets won't approach the SEC/B1G deals.

I have no idea where Clemson and FSU will end up. All I know is that they do not want to be in the ACC. They are a lost cause at this point. If they both both end up independent or in the sun belt like everyone here is predicting, that doesn't really matter to me honestly. They are gone either way. What does matter is that them being in the ACC while actively trying legally finangle their way out causes instability in the conference. Reports of them having discussions with other conferences causes instability in the conference. If they do leave, it devalues the conference by a pretty good bit. Nobody is going to be dumb enough to leave a stable situation for a completely unstable one. Are UCF and WVU going to make more money in an ACC without FSU and Clemson (and possibly others) than they would in a Big 12 with FSU and Clemson?

 

[WreckinGT]

The two biggest brands of the Big12 left a few days ago. The Big12 IS currently the ACC after FSU and Clemson leave. If you question is -- Why would anyone want to join the ACC if FSU and Clemson leave? -- Then you would also have to ask yourself -- Why would anyone want to be in the current Big12? -- The ACC currently makes more per team per year than the Big12. The projectsions show the ACC making more per team per year in the future than the Big12.

However, the GOR does exist. Nobody is going to leave the Big12 in the next few years. Nobody is going to leave the ACC in the next few years either.

The simple answer is stability. The Big 12 took their hit, then expanded and have their conference going forward. Nobody is really worried about anyone leaving. Their situation is a relatively healthy one compared to the ACC where no one knows what is going to happen. There may be an ACC in 12 years, there may not. Who will be in it? Who knows. I doubt Clemson and FSU will be the only ones to leave. I would disagree as well on the payouts. It would be pretty surprising if the Big 12 doesn't pass the ACC in payouts, possibly by a good margin, when they renegotiate in 2031.

 

[RonJohn]

The simple answer is stability. The Big 12 took their hit, then expanded and have their conference going forward. Nobody is really worried about anyone leaving. Their situation is a relatively healthy one compared to the ACC where no one knows what is going to happen. There may be an ACC in 12 years, there may not. Who will be in it? Who knows. I doubt Clemson and FSU will be the only ones to leave. I would disagree as well on the payouts. It would be pretty surprising if the Big 12 doesn't pass the ACC in payouts, possibly by a good margin, when they renegotiate in 2031.

Like I said earlier, the Big12 currently is what the ACC would be if FSU and Clemson leave. The Twitter trolls who say that the ACC is "in trouble" and "unstable" are just trolls. The ACC is currently what the Big12 was 5 years ago. The Big12 is currently what the ACC would be if all of the "nightmare scenarios" come true.

According to the projections I have seen, the Big12 will not make more than the ACC (per team) until the end of their current contract. With the way TV contracts for sports have been progressing in the past few years, it is also possible that the Big12 will make substantially less money when they negotiate the next TV contract. Nobody knows what the media appetite for sports will be like at that point.

Also, I would not be surprised for the entire conference arrangements and media structures to be turned on their head when athletes are legally declared to be employees. I think there is a decent chance that IF FSU were able to negotiate a buyout of the GOR in a few years and pay $400 million to the ACC, that within a couple of years, the entire conference alignment model would disintegrate. FSU would be out $400 million and in the same situation as the rest of the teams from the ACC, and in the same position they would have been in had they not paid the rest of the ACC any money.

I wasn't there and don't take it as gospel, but I heard/read from a few people that the mood at the ACC football media days was subdued. That it appeared to people that the ACC is dug in for a long court battle, and that FSU is now resigned to wait for a long court battle. I don't think anyone is leaving the ACC anytime soon. (Even though Swaim made a claim that FSU and Clemson would both announce before next Thursday. And then I think he changed it to 8/15/25. And will probably change it again between now and 8/15/25.)

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Are UCF and WVU going to make more money in an ACC without FSU and Clemson (and possibly others) than they would in a Big 12 with FSU and Clemson?

Why would FSU and Clemson go to the Big-12? Their presence in the Big-12 would bring the Big-12s revenue to roughly where the ACCs is now. Why would FSU sue to leave a conference where it isn't able to keep up financially and join another conference where they would be in the same financial hole?

 

[stinger78]

I'm confident that there are look-ins, if things get far askew, that the ACC can appeal to for renegotiation. sEcSPN does, after all, have to keep the reservation somewhat happy - within reason. That may be an unintended consequence of Fox and others moving strongly into the CFB market.