One thing to keep in mind here is that there will always be competing jobs open whenever you decide to make a move. Maybe one year there may be a little more or less, but in general, there will always be a couple of jobs in the same tier that are open. That's sort of why I tend to think of programs in tiers. There are schools whose overall attractiveness is relatively similar, but different coaches are going to feel more strongly one over others based on their criteria and backgrounds.
You can sort of play the game within the conference a little more but even that can throw you surprises. the big issue in the ACC is when will the senior citizen coaches start leaving (K, Roy, Boeheim, Pitino, Larranaga, Hamilton). Right now I don't think any jobs are likely to open on account of the school this offseason, and frankly only 2-3 seems likely to be seriously considered next year.
If you look at each school you can get a sense of where things are
BC - Christian is putting up sub Bzdelik type numbers. He will be in season 3 next year, but the current AD and Pres hired him and they don't seem to care about basketball much. So he could potentially be fired after next season, but i'd wager they give him 4 yrs.
Clemson - Brownwell is in yr 6. They move into the new Littlejohn next season and his contract has a $5MM buyout this season, so he will be back. Next year the contract buyout drops to $3MM and stays there for 2 yrs, so they either make a move after next season or he is likely there until it drops again after 2019.
Duke - K is there until he retires
FSU - Hamilton s getting old, but his recruiting is going very well and they gave him a 2 yr extension last month. His seat could get hot if they don't make the NCAA next year.
GT - Money issue, when MBob feels he has the money he will make a move. If I was a betting man i'd say Gregory is retained and given a 1 yr extension with no change to the buyout after the NIT, but we'll see. No one seems to have a firm read and it looks like it is completely MBob's decision.
L'ville - Pitino is there until he doesn't want to be.
Miami - Larranaga will be there until he retires - i'm thinking 3-4 yrs.
UNC - Roy is there until he retires.
NCST - Gott was hired by Yow so the AD will be slow to make a change. This is the first year he missed the NCAA. His past history suggests he will start to flame out in the next couple of years. Fanbase would be willing to part with him if they can get Archie to come home. If he has a bad season after next year and Archie is available then it could start to heat up, otherwise this is probably pretty cool.
Notre Dame - Brey can stay as long as he wants. Doubt he leaves anytime soon unless Duke tres to hire him to replace K.
Pitt - Fanbase is starting to get a little worn on Dixon but I doubt the school would seriously consider a change. If there is a change here in the next couple of years it will be becuase Dixon left, not because the school initiated it.
Syracuse - Boeheim is there until he retires. They have already named Hopkins coach in waiting.
UVA - Bennett is set for as long as he wants to stay.
VT - Buzz will be here unless he decides to leave to return closer to his roots - will OSU make a play for him this offseason?
Wake - Manning will be going into yr 3. Fanbase likes him but somewhat concerned with his coaching. Recruiting is going well. i'd expect he'd get at least 2 more years until the admin even thought about making a change.
