I would be surprised if Calipari jumped to the NBA, even if he does go 40-0. While it makes sense to a certain extent (what else would be left for him to do?), most of those rumors are coming from outside the program. Most with connections to the program feel that, when he turned down the Lakers and Cavs last year, he made the decision that he plans to stay at UK for a while. One thing to watch is whether his son walks on at UK instead of accepting an offer from a small school. That would guarantee he stays for a few more years at least.
Will be tough for UK to get a guy who fits anywhere as well as Cal. As good as Marshall is, he would be a big downgrade from Cal when it comes to all the off-the-court promotion and marketing of the program that Cal has been able to do. At UK, you aren't just a coach, you are a figurehead and representative of the state. Something Billy Gillispie learned the hard way. If Shaka Smart succeeds at UT, I could see UK going after him before Marshall.