CFP Discussion

awbuzz

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GoJacketsInRaleigh said:
FSU isn't going to drop in the playoff rankings from #4 to #5+ if they win Saturday.
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Agree 100%.
If FSU wins, no way, assuming no more devastating injuries, they are left out of the CFP. Undefeated AND P5 Conference Champions, all but guaranteed to be in unless all of the other P5 champs are also undefeated, then you have an argument this year that will be gone next season.
 
stinger78

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awbuzz said:
Agree 100%.
If FSU wins, no way, assuming no more devastating injuries, they are left out of the CFP. Undefeated AND P5 Conference Champions, all but guaranteed to be in unless all of the other P5 champs are also undefeated, then you have an argument this year that will be gone next season.
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B12 champ will be either UTA or OSU. Both have at least 1 loss, however, UTA has the best win so far over Alabama. If there are 4 undefeated teams, yes, I agree. If one of those four loses, it’s a mess as there would then be about 5 teams that could make a really good case for inclusion.
 
UgaBlows

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I may very well be wrong but I don’t see FSU beating UL without their starting qb. UL looked bad last week against a meh KY team though, hmmm.
 

GoJacketsInRaleigh

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stinger78 said:
B12 champ will be either UTA or OSU. Both have at least 1 loss, however, UTA has the best win so far over Alabama. If there are 4 undefeated teams, yes, I agree. If one of those four loses, it’s a mess as there would then be about 5 teams that could make a really good case for inclusion.
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I would love to see Michigan, FSU, and Washington all win and be 13-0. Then Alabama beat UGA and have a big old *** fight between 12-1 Bama, 12-1 UGA, and 12-1 Texas. Bama has the conference title but so does Texas. Texas had H2H in Tuscaloosa on them. UGA has an almost 30 game winning streak and that's it. Texas should be the clear winner of that 3-way but there's no damn way the SEC is getting left out.
 
stinger78

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GoJacketsInRaleigh said:
I would love to see Michigan, FSU, and Washington all win and be 13-0. Then Alabama beat UGA and have a big old *** fight between 12-1 Bama, 12-1 UGA, and 12-1 Texas. Bama has the conference title but so does Texas. Texas had H2H in Tuscaloosa on them. UGA has an almost 30 game winning streak and that's it. Texas should be the clear winner of that 3-way but there's no damn way the SEC is getting left out.
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Yes, but you left out Ohio State who sits there at 11-1 having only lost to CFP #2 Michigan. Bama lost to CFP #7 UTA. UGA, if they lose, will have lost only to CFP #8 Bama. UTA lost only to CFP #12 OU. Of that bunch, tOSU has the "best" loss of that group. As far as best wins, tOSU beat CFP #10 Penn State. UGA beat CFP #9 Missouri. UTA beat CFP #8 Bama. Bama will have beaten CFP #1 UGAg. Here it is in list form:

OSU - #2/#10
ALA - #7/#1
UGA - #8/#9
UTA - #12/#8

Worst loss should count more than best win. Teams don't control who they play, but they do over who they lose to. If L is the negative of the CFP rank of the loss and W is you positive of the best win, you could put together an equation such as "Playoff Rank = -L + (10-W)."

Then:
OSU: -2 + (10-10) = -2
ALA: -7 + (10-1) = 2
UGA: -8 + (10-9) = -7
UTA: -12 + (10-8) = -10

Bama would get the nod there - powered by beating the CFP #1 team.
 
GTHomer

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stinger78 said:
Yes, but you left out Ohio State who sits there at 11-1 having only lost to CFP #2 Michigan. Bama lost to CFP #7 UTA. UGA, if they lose, will have lost only to CFP #8 Bama. UTA lost only to CFP #12 OU.
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Ohio State should not get consideration as they did not play in a conference championship game unless they have a better record than a conference champion and were ranked higher.
 
stinger78

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GTHomer said:
Ohio State should not get consideration as they did not play in a conference championship game unless they have a better record than a conference champion and were ranked higher.
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I would agree personally, but that’s been done before.
 
stinger78

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CEB said:
It has only been done when you have multi-loss conference champs. It SHOULD only happen this year if TWO of Iowa, OKSt and Lville pull upsets. Otherwise, we should have four conference champs with 1 or fewer losses and they get the spots.
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I agree.
 
slugboy

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IMG_0348.jpeg


 

RamblinRed

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Oldgoldandwhite said:
He would lobby if he was a four loss team.
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This just shows me that depsite the shills for the conference, there is some understandings that there are scenarios where they could get left out. I didn't really think that until Tuesday night, but that spreadsheet does a nice job of laying out the scenario where it could happen (Even though it is highly unlikely).
Basically Mich, TX, FSU and AL all have to win for that scenario to potentially happen.
The thought being then the final 4 are Mich, FSU, TX and the winner of the Wash/OR game.

There are also scenarios where the SEC could get 2 in. Not overly likely, though more likely than getting none in.
 

RamblinRed

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Not sure if this is behind a paywall, but if it isn't it is a good read on the options for each of the 8 squads still vying for a spot in the CFP and what they likely have to do to get into the CFP.


The other nice piece they provided in this was that they showed all the victories over FBS opponents for each team.
Here is how that breaks down.
UGA - 4 (1 road)
Mich - 5 (2 road)
Wash - 6 (3 road)
FSU - 4 (1 road, 1 neutral)
OR - 3 (1 road)
TX - 5 (2 road)
AL - 5 (2 road)
OH St - 5 (2 road)

Ohio ST has likely only 1 scenario that would get them a bid.
Mich, Wash and UGA all win. FSU and TX lose.
This scenario would leave 3 undeafeateds (UGA, Mich, Wash) and just 2 one-loss teams (OH ST and FSU) - neither a conference champ.
This would be the B1G's dream scenario.
 
jeffgt14

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IMO.... Georgia, PAC-12 Champ, and Michigan are locked no matter what happens. There is a small chance Michigan may get jumped by Texas in the event they lose but I don't see the committee leaving them out regardless of what happens against Iowa. I took a crack at my own scenario chart below. I think I'm honestly being partial to FSU here too. I'm not completely sold they get in in any of these scenarios.

Some of my seeding may be off some. Some scenarios may look contradictory but I think the committee will try to avoid championship game rematches (i.e. Bama vs uga in the 1st round) at all costs.

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Papa Foxtrot

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Sad, a ticket for the $EC championship game is 6x the price of a ticket to the ACC championship game. Supply and demand I suppose....

 
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