CFP Discussion

Oldgoldandwhite

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Way too early predictions but;
mutts, FSU, Texas, and one of PSU/Mich/OhSt will have to lose their way out.
Clemson, Bama, and several others can’t afford another loss. Good year for ND to be in the ACC. Don't see them getting in otherwise.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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Undefeated ND is in the CFP

Maybe.

If uga, Michigan/OSU/PSU, FSU and Texas all win out ND is likely sitting at home. Now, the chances of 4 teams going into the playoffs undefeated, much less 5 teams, are slim to none, but that would be the cost of NDs refusal to join a conference. This is the last year that would matter though, as the playoffs expand to 12 teams next year.
 

roadkill

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Maybe.

If uga, Michigan/OSU/PSU, FSU and Texas all win out ND is likely sitting at home. Now, the chances of 4 teams going into the playoffs undefeated, much less 5 teams, are slim to none, but that would be the cost of NDs refusal to join a conference. This is the last year that would matter though, as the playoffs expand to 12 teams next year.
Notre Dame's AD is on record as saying that the main thing that would induce them to join a conference is if they don't otherwise have a path to the playoffs.
 

CEB

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Maybe.

If uga, Michigan/OSU/PSU, FSU and Texas all win out ND is likely sitting at home. Now, the chances of 4 teams going into the playoffs undefeated, much less 5 teams, are slim to none, but that would be the cost of NDs refusal to join a conference. This is the last year that would matter though, as the playoffs expand to 12 teams next year.
Notre dame can take care of the Buckeyes in two weeks.
If Penn St or Michigan runs the table, that would be a problem for them.
I don’t see anyone from BIG coming out unscathed.
 

orientalnc

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Maybe.

If uga, Michigan/OSU/PSU, FSU and Texas all win out ND is likely sitting at home. Now, the chances of 4 teams going into the playoffs undefeated, much less 5 teams, are slim to none, but that would be the cost of NDs refusal to join a conference. This is the last year that would matter though, as the playoffs expand to 12 teams next year.
Complications: FSU and Miami have Clemson to play (FSU at Clemson), plus their rivalry game. One or both will have a loss.
uga looks like they have a glide path to the Ole Miss game, followed by Tennessee in Knoxville. It could get interesting for them. With Bama already having a loss, they probably need to win out. Same with LSU.
I agree with you re the B1G. The kink in that look is the chance that tOSU/Mich/PSU give each other one close loss and two of them (or all three) make the playoffs.
Then there is USC. Or one of several PAC teams in what looks like their best year in a long while.

All that just complicates ND's route to the CFP if they do not win out convincingly.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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Notre dame can take care of the Buckeyes in two weeks.
If Penn St or Michigan runs the table, that would be a problem for them.
I don’t see anyone from BIG coming out unscathed.

I forgot tOSU and ND were playing this year. Again, likelihood of anyone not named uga or FSU entering the playoffs without a loss is minimal, and I have doubts that FSO survives the entire season unscathed, but this is the year that a one loss ND may well be looking at a field of one loss conference champs passing them by.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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Complications: FSU and Miami have Clemson to play (FSU at Clemson), plus their rivalry game. One or both will have a loss.
uga looks like they have a glide path to the Ole Miss game, followed by Tennessee in Knoxville. It could get interesting for them. With Bama already having a loss, they probably need to win out. Same with LSU.
I agree with you re the B1G. The kink in that look is the chance that tOSU/Mich/PSU give each other one close loss and two of them (or all three) make the playoffs.
Then there is USC. Or one of several PAC teams in what looks like their best year in a long while.

All that just complicates ND's route to the CFP if they do not win out convincingly.

ND and USC play each other, which will knock one out. uga will coast in. FSU has some tough games, but if they, or Miami for that matter, finish up undefeated they are in easily. Texas has OU and a history of choking to beat, but may well be the dark horse national champion we've been missing for a while. If USC wins out they can make a compelling case, but that would mean they beat ND so that makes this thought exercise moot. The biggest question is the B1G. They have three legit contenders, only one of which plays ND. If PSU or UM win out, they are in the playoffs. Which would mean a four team playoff of uga, B1G winner, FSU, and Texas.

There are a handful of other schools that could make a reasonable run if they win out, like Miami, Oregon, and Oklahoma, even possibly UNC, but for ND to make the playoffs, they almost certainly have to be undefeated and hope there are at least two conference champions with one loss.
 

Oldgoldandwhite

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I don’t see any way that ND gets in if they have the same number of losses as a conference champ if they are tied for the last spot. But politics trumps performance sometimes.
 

Root4GT

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Maybe.

If uga, Michigan/OSU/PSU, FSU and Texas all win out ND is likely sitting at home. Now, the chances of 4 teams going into the playoffs undefeated, much less 5 teams, are slim to none, but that would be the cost of NDs refusal to join a conference. This is the last year that would matter though, as the playoffs expand to 12 teams next year.
Since OSU/Michigan and PSU all play each other there is no chance that more than one of them can come our undefeated. So now you are down to 1 B1G team, 1 Bi12 team, 1 ACC team and 1 PAC 12 team plus ND. Their odds are pretty good as they play Ohio State and USC this year. If ND wins out they are in the CFP. They won't win out though.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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Since OSU/Michigan and PSU all play each other there is no chance that more than one of them can come our undefeated.

Correct. Hence the / between them indicating one of these three. Also, your reply left out the very real possibility of an undefeated SEC champ.

If the B1G winner is undefeated, say Michigan or PSU since tOSU plays ND, the ACC winner is undefeated, the Big-12 winner is undefeated and uga is undefeated, then an undefeated ND is left at home watching. My initial post did not count on the PAC being a factor at all since USC plays ND which makes the argument between them moot.
 

stech81

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Correct. Hence the / between them indicating one of these three. Also, your reply left out the very real possibility of an undefeated SEC champ.

If the B1G winner is undefeated, say Michigan or PSU since tOSU plays ND, the ACC winner is undefeated, the Big-12 winner is undefeated and uga is undefeated, then an undefeated ND is left at home watching. My initial post did not count on the PAC being a factor at all since USC plays ND which makes the argument between them moot.
IMO if 4 teams are undefeated and one team has one loss (if uga is one of those undefeated teams uga should not be in the playoffs with their weak *** schedule) but we all know ESPN will not let that happen,
 

ibeattetris

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Correct. Hence the / between them indicating one of these three. Also, your reply left out the very real possibility of an undefeated SEC champ.

If the B1G winner is undefeated, say Michigan or PSU since tOSU plays ND, the ACC winner is undefeated, the Big-12 winner is undefeated and uga is undefeated, then an undefeated ND is left at home watching. My initial post did not count on the PAC being a factor at all since USC plays ND which makes the argument between them moot.
Since 2014 (CFP Era) there has not been 4 undefeated teams to end a season let alone 5. The whole conversation is most likely moot. It's a much more likely scenario that ND is staring down 3-5 other 1 loss teams and hoping they won't be left out.
 

orientalnc

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Since 2014 (CFP Era) there has not been 4 undefeated teams to end a season let alone 5. The whole conversation is most likely moot. It's a much more likely scenario that ND is staring down 3-5 other 1 loss teams and hoping they won't be left out.
You are probably correct, but this is mid-September on the Swarm. Hell hath no fury like a Swarm poster rebutted.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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Since 2014 (CFP Era) there has not been 4 undefeated teams to end a season let alone 5. The whole conversation is most likely moot. It's a much more likely scenario that ND is staring down 3-5 other 1 loss teams and hoping they won't be left out.

Agreed, that's exactly what I said earlier. My point was that ND needs more to happen than just them winning out. Granted, a lot of that is likely to happen, but them winning out alone won't secure them a playoff spot if there are four undefeated conference champions.

Now, the chances of 4 teams going into the playoffs undefeated, much less 5 teams, are slim to none
 

RamblinRed

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If there are 4 other undefeated conference champions and an undefeated ND then it could get interesting. The Conference champs would likely have a little bit of an advantage because each will have played an extra game (Conf. Champ game) compared to ND.

ND's schedule is plenty difficult though if they got through it then it would be highly likely they would make the CFP given who they would have beaten in their 12 games. Also, keep in mind that unlike most other P5 schools ND does not play any FCS opponents. That has the potential to give them a little leg up.
 

orientalnc

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If there are 4 other undefeated conference champions and an undefeated ND then it could get interesting. The Conference champs would likely have a little bit of an advantage because each will have played an extra game (Conf. Champ game) compared to ND.

ND's schedule is plenty difficult though if they got through it then it would be highly likely they would make the CFP given who they would have beaten in their 12 games. Also, keep in mind that unlike most other P5 schools ND does not play any FCS opponents. That has the potential to give them a little leg up.
Tennessee State???
 

roadkill

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If there are 4 other undefeated conference champions and an undefeated ND then it could get interesting. The Conference champs would likely have a little bit of an advantage because each will have played an extra game (Conf. Champ game) compared to ND.

ND's schedule is plenty difficult though if they got through it then it would be highly likely they would make the CFP given who they would have beaten in their 12 games. Also, keep in mind that unlike most other P5 schools ND does not play any FCS opponents. That has the potential to give them a little leg up.
As of today, if ND goes undefeated they would have beaten two of the currently top-forecasted teams to make the CFP. That would almost certainly get them a spot.
 

Augusta_Jacket

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As of today, if ND goes undefeated they would have beaten two of the currently top-forecasted teams to make the CFP. That would almost certainly get them a spot.

The current guidelines for the CFP committee place conference championships as a primary factor. uga and their weak schedule vs and undefeated ND would be the biggest argument. Do you really think an undefeated ND is getting in before an undefeated SEC champ regardless of SoS?

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:
  • Championships won
  • Strength of schedule
  • Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
  • Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)
 
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