CFP Discussion

[Thwg777]

If FSU loses then this is a likely scenario. If FSU wins and all the other favorites win then Texas is left out.

Agreed. I obviously want u(sic)ga to lose but if that doesn’t happen, I become a UL fan Saturday night. I think Texas is objectively better than a Travis-less FSU team and want ugags path as difficult as possible.

 

[Bogey]

I actually think there is relatively little for the committee to do this year.
I believe 3 of the 4 spots are already spoken for.

I believe UGA and Michigan are in, win or lose in their conference championships. Even if they lose they will be the highest one loss rated teams by the committee. The committee will not punish those 2 for losing a conference championship game.
The third spot that is locked up is the PAC. The winner of that game is getting an invite. You will have either an undefeated Washington or a 1-loss Oregon that has been dominating opponents and just avenged its only defeat.

That leaves one spot.
If FSU beats L'ville they will get that spot. Committee will not leave out an undefeated power conference champ.
If FSU loses and Texas wins then Texas gets the spot.
If both FSU and TX lose and AL beats GA then AL gets this slot.

So imo you have 2 teams that are in.
You have 2 teams fighting for 1 spot.
You have 3 teams fighting for the last spot.

one last scenario, if OR bests WA, but FSU, TX and AL all lose then I could see Washington getting the final slot.

This makes a lot if sense.

 

[bobongo]

If Georgia loses to Alabama, they absolutely are in jeopardy of being left out of the final four because of their weak schedule.

No undefeated P-5 conference champ has ever been left out, so if Washington, Michigan and FSU win and Alabama beats Georgia, Georgia is out, period.

 

[bobongo]

Blasphemous, Texas is complete garbage to Alabama at this point in the season and everyone knows it. If Alabama beats UGA i don't want to hear crap about Texas lol.

But Texas beat Alabama, so...

 

[colton]

If Georgia loses to Alabama, they absolutely are in jeopardy of being left out of the final four because of their weak schedule.

No undefeated P-5 conference champ has ever been left out, so if Washington, Michigan and FSU win and Alabama beats Georgia, Georgia is out, period.

IMO, I'd prefer Texas over Alabama. SEC Champ Bama would likely be ranked over uGA, so Bama would go to the Cotton Bowl, while uGA stays at home in the Peach Bowl.

 

[bobongo]

Agreed. I obviously want u(sic)ga to lose but if that doesn’t happen, I become a UL fan Saturday night. I think Texas is objectively better than a Travis-less FSU team and want ugags path as difficult as possible.

Objectively so, but the committee isn't supposed to take injuries into account. They are supposed to judge based on a team's record, period. And that's as it should be IMO.

 

[stinger78]

The hard part will be leaving a 2x NC out that just won its 29th straight game and lost to a top 10 team. They should be left out, though, as a 4-slot CFP should only be conference champs, IMPO, but it's not only that at this point - so I think UGA gets in regardless. If the rest are MIchigan, Oregon/Washington, and UGA/Bama, there are 4 other teams right there that can beat UGA.

 

[bobongo]

IMO, I'd prefer Texas over Alabama. SEC Champ Bama would likely be ranked over uGA, so Bama would go to the Cotton Bowl, while uGA stays at home in the Peach Bowl.

Yeah, if Michigan, FSU, Texas and Washington win and Alabama knocks off Georgia, Texas is in because in that scenario Texas > Alabama > Georgia.

 

[Bogey]

I really want FSU to make it because they are an ACC team and have been my favorite second school to watch play. But after watching their UF game, if they do beat L'ville and make the playoffs, I don't think they will make it out of the first round with Rodemaker as their QB. Their offense is not very good without Travis and it seems to have affected their defensive play.

 

[bobongo]

The hard part will be leaving a 2x NC out that just won its 29th straight game and lost to a top 10 team. They should be left out, though, as a 4-slot CFP should only be conference champs, IMPO, but it's not only that at this point - so I think UGA gets in regardless. If the rest are MIchigan, Oregon/Washington, and UGA/Bama, there are 4 other teams right there that can beat UGA.

Previous championships aren't in the committee's criteria of selection.

 

[Thwg777]

Objectively so, but the committee isn't supposed to take injuries into account. They are supposed to judge based on a team's record, period. And that's as it should be IMO.

I’m with you. Undefeated FSU gets in over Texas. But in this hypothetical, it’s for the semi-match-up with ugag. And thus I’d pull for UL to defeat FSU so that Texas does get in. No way FSU gets in if they lose this weekend.

 

[stinger78]

Previous championships aren't in the committee's criteria of selection.

Maybe not formally, but how do you just will yourself not to know that?

 

[Northeast Stinger]

GT football has been lost in the wilderness for several years. GT football made major strides to becoming an average P5 football team this year.

GT’s offense was actually good this year. We could score points at a much greater rate than rioryears. The most improved scoring offense in Division1 actually. Hard not to be impressed by that.

Conversely on defense we still are a bottom 15 defense in Division 1.

With such a bad defense and a good offense predicting GT game outcomes is near impossible.

I am not sure how good GT’s defense can actually become going forward. Getting talented players in numbers on defense is very difficult. On offense one player like Kingcan make a huge difference. Much harder for one player to have a similar impact on defense.

Currently GT is an average ACC Team in my view. I see our celling Ada tier below the top potential ACC Teams,FSU, Clemson and Miami.

Not one compound sentence as I requested but close enough. I don’t disagree with any of this.

I think the problem with posting on sites like this is the same problem that text messaging presents. It’s hard to hear tone of voice and nuance. People can read the same comments and get completely different inferences that have nothing to do with reading comprehension.

 

[bobongo]

I’m with you. Undefeated FSU gets in over Texas. But in this hypothetical, it’s for the semi-match-up with ugag. And thus I’d pull for UL to defeat FSU so that Texas does get in. No way FSU gets in if they lose this weekend.

I can see that. Texas would be a far more formidable opponent than FSU without Travis.

 

[Thwg777]

If Georgia loses to Alabama, they absolutely are in jeopardy of being left out of the final four because of their weak schedule.

No undefeated P-5 conference champ has ever been left out, so if Washington, Michigan and FSU win and Alabama beats Georgia, Georgia is out, period.

That’s one of the more chaotic scenarios IMO… Washington and Michigan are locks. I’d like to agree that FSU should be a lock although UL losing to Kentucky doesn’t help that. I’d also like to agree Bama should be a lock but they’re starting all the way at #7 or 8 after playing like garbage against Auburn.

 

[bobongo]

Maybe not formally, but how do you just will yourself not to know that?

Well, because everyone's watching. If Georgia slips in there in that scenario, everyone will know it's due to a factor they're not supposed to be considering.

 

[bobongo]

That’s one of the more chaotic scenarios IMO… Washington and Michigan are locks. I’d like to agree that FSU should be a lock although UL losing to Kentucky doesn’t help that. I’d also like to agree Bama should be a lock but they’re starting all the way at #7 or 8 after playing like garbage against Auburn.

Alabama wouldn't be a lock to be in. In that scenario they're only in if Texas loses. But whether they get in or not, they would knock Georgia out.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

That’s one of the more chaotic scenarios IMO… Washington and Michigan are locks. I’d like to agree that FSU should be a lock although UL losing to Kentucky doesn’t help that. I’d also like to agree Bama should be a lock but they’re starting all the way at #7 or 8 after playing like garbage against Auburn.

You underestimate the SEC boost. Lucking out against Auburn doesn’t hurt Bama. Beating uga would instantly vault them into at least the top five, maybe higher. If everything was to break just right they could even end up a 2 seed. Yep, I’m that cynical about the SEC’s marketing success on the playoff committee.

 

[stinger78]

You underestimate the SEC boost. Lucking out against Auburn doesn’t hurt Bama. Beating uga would instantly vault them into at least the top five, maybe higher. If everything was to break just right they could even end up a 2 seed. Yep, I’m that cynical about the SEC’s marketing success on the playoff committee.

All you had to do was listen to Sean McDonough’s 3-hour infomercial about UGA during our game Saturday night to see this.

 

[RamblinRed]

AL needs alot to happen to have a chance to get in, starting with TX losing. TX win against Bama (at Bama no less) effectively blocks AL ceiling. Head to head is a major component in what the committee uses.
If TX wins, then AL can not finish ahead of it in the committee by any means.

If WASH, FSU, MICH, TX all win, as suggested in a post above, then I think the final order will be:
1) Mich
2) WASH
3) FSU
4) UGA

Committee does not use comparative analysis (ie. TX > AL > UGA) only direct (TX > AL). Everyone knows you cannot use transitive property in FB.
UGA with a loss will be ranked as the top 1 loss team by the committee. Michigan would be the same.

UGA and MICH are dead locks at this point imo.
TX can only get in with a FSU loss.

IMO the B1G, SEC and PAC have slots locked up. The final slot comes down to the ACC or B12 with the possibility of a 2nd SEC bid in a total chaos case.