CFP Discussion

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Funny too....
The only way for the SEC to get 2 teams IN the CFB playoff is for Alabama to beat UGA... which is also the only way for the SEC to have no teams in.

Whether is is both or none depends on what happens in other games.. and a committee's view of all that.

About the only way that could happen is if at least two favorites lost. Probably all four undefeated lose, then chaos.

 

[orientalnc]

GT football has been lost in the wilderness for several years. GT football made major strides to becoming an average P5 football team this year.

GT’s offense was actually good this year. We could score points at a much greater rate than rioryears. The most improved scoring offense in Division1 actually. Hard not to be impressed by that.

Conversely on defense we still are a bottom 15 defense in Division 1.

With such a bad defense and a good offense predicting GT game outcomes is near impossible.

I am not sure how good GT’s defense can actually become going forward. Getting talented players in numbers on defense is very difficult. On offense one player like Kingcan make a huge difference. Much harder for one player to have a similar impact on defense.

Currently GT is an average ACC Team in my view. I see our celling Ada tier below the top potential ACC Teams,FSU, Clemson and Miami.

I want to pick at these one at a time. "lost in the wilderness" is a very weak cliche. I agree that tfg was terrible and replacing him was the right move. But, lost???

Why is your inability at "predicting GT game outcomes" a problem?

Why is getting defensive players harder than offensive players? And I reject completely that one player (Haynes King) can make a bigger difference on offense. He is good, but not the whole show. I firmly believe the offensive line is the most important part of every offense and the hardest to build from scratch.

We finished the season 4th out of 14 teams. Where does "average" begin and end in your ranking and ordering system? Last, we have less potential than Miami? A team we beat this year?

My view: I feel we are behind on defense primarily on the D line and LB. We are not making the bonehead missreads in the secondary that we saw in the prior 3-4 years. But we need more pressure up front and our LB room is young and, maybe, not as talented as we need. Key focused this year on getting the offense up to P5 standard and was successful. Now he needs to focus on the D.

 

[RamblinRed]

I actually think there is relatively little for the committee to do this year.
I believe 3 of the 4 spots are already spoken for.

I believe UGA and Michigan are in, win or lose in their conference championships. Even if they lose they will be the highest one loss rated teams by the committee. The committee will not punish those 2 for losing a conference championship game.
The third spot that is locked up is the PAC. The winner of that game is getting an invite. You will have either an undefeated Washington or a 1-loss Oregon that has been dominating opponents and just avenged its only defeat.

That leaves one spot.
If FSU beats L'ville they will get that spot. Committee will not leave out an undefeated power conference champ.
If FSU loses and Texas wins then Texas gets the spot.
If both FSU and TX lose and AL beats GA then AL gets this slot.

So imo you have 2 teams that are in.
You have 2 teams fighting for 1 spot.
You have 3 teams fighting for the last spot.

one last scenario, if OR bests WA, but FSU, TX and AL all lose then I could see Washington getting the final slot.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Why is getting defensive players harder than offensive players? And I reject completely that one player (Haynes King) can make a bigger difference on offense. He is good, but not the whole show. I firmly believe the offensive line is the most important part of every offense and the hardest to build from scratch.

I’ll play:
-Generally offensive linemen and offensive players are pretty dang smart.
-Fewer standout DL.
-Everyone is looking for the same thing.
-I’m sure others will come up with more.

Saban was once asked in a preseason interview, the most important player on the team. Answer was Quarterback.
Second most important player and his answer was Quarterback.

 

[Root4GT]

I want to pick at these one at a time. "lost in the wilderness" is a very weak cliche. I agree that tfg was terrible and replacing him was the right move. But, lost???

Why is your inability at "predicting GT game outcomes" a problem?

Why is getting defensive players harder than offensive players? And I reject completely that one player (Haynes King) can make a bigger difference on offense. He is good, but not the whole show. I firmly believe the offensive line is the most important part of every offense and the hardest to build from scratch.

We finished the season 4th out of 14 teams. Where does "average" begin and end in your ranking and ordering system? Last, we have less potential than Miami? A team we beat this year?

My view: I feel we are behind on defense primarily on the D line and LB. We are not making the bonehead missreads in the secondary that we saw in the prior 3-4 years. But we need more pressure up front and our LB room is young and, maybe, not as talented as we need. Key focused this year on getting the offense up to P5 standard and was successful. Now he needs to focus on the D.

Inability to predictGT games. See BG, BC, UNC, Miami. 4 of 12 off the top of my head that went way off expected results at the time the game was played.

There is a large middle pack in the ACC standings 5-3 vs 4-4. Since the teams don’t play each other being tied for 4th sounds nice but it is fairly meaningless. Are we better than a 4-4 Clemson team that beat us like a rag doll? No. We are a mid tier ACC Team. That is a big step forward.

We simply disagree on how a very good QB can impact a team. He touches the ball nearly every offensive play. No one defensive player can come close to having the same level impact on a game.

Our defense got manhandled by 10 of 12 teams on our schedule. That is in the awful category. The need for numerous good players on the DL and at LB is clear and obvious. That is a lot of players, over half the defense. On one player or scheme can fix that.

OL play improved significantly as the year progressed. The OL was poor to start the season. Good QB play overcame that as well as a good offensive scheme to work around the OL deficiency the first several games.

Do you see the defense able to improve similarly to how this year’s offense improved in one offseason? In case you forgot the offense was the most improved scoring offense in Division 1 this year. I see zero chance for similar defensive improvement. Simply would require getting at least 5 new starters who are major upgrades. That’s a bridge too far.

 

[Bleedwhiteandgold]

So, these pollsters rank being undefeated as the highest component. FSU with its backup QB is still undefeated and ahead of the one loss teams. It seems they think FSU may not have looked great in the UF game, but neither did uga in the GT game. Both won, neither got punished for not covering.

If Bama beats uga it may come down to how bad does uga's loss look when compared to the loss suffered by the other one loss teams. Ohio State lost to #2 Michigan, Oregon lost to #3 Washington, Bama lost to #7 Texas, and uga will have lost to #8 Alabama. Texas lost to #12 Oklahoma.

Next weekend uga is a 5 point favorite, Michigan is a 23 point favorite, Oregon is a 9 point favorite, and FSU is favored by 3. Texas is a 13 point favorite.

I think there is a case to be made that Bama beating uga for the SEC championship keeps both out of the CFP.

Of course, these hypotheticals depend on Michigan, FSU and Washington winning.

You and I both know the committee will never allow a SEC team to not make the playoff. BAMA or UGA are a lock. In fact, if UGA loses a close game, I still think UGA replaces a undefeated FSU without Jordan Travis (I'm predicting they lose to Louisville).

 

[Bleedwhiteandgold]

If I just looked at the last game, Texas would be at the top of my list. They look like they can beat anyone right now. Michigan is next, then UGA, then Washington, Oregon, Ohio State.
FSU has a great resume. They need to win against Louisville and their offense needs to be smooth throughout the game.

NCST and SMU are both ranked by ESPN here. SMU was the baker’s dozen add on to conference expansion, but they’re the best of the three teams the ACC is adding

College Football Power Rankings: Who moved up after Rivalry Week?

ESPN writers rank the best teams in college football after Week 13 of the 2023 season.

www.espn.com

Blasphemous, Texas is complete garbage to Alabama at this point in the season and everyone knows it. If Alabama beats UGA i don't want to hear crap about Texas lol.

 

[Oldgoldandwhite]

Blasphemous, Texas is complete garbage to Alabama at this point in the season and everyone knows it. If Alabama beats UGA i don't want to hear crap about Texas lol.

So every game doesn’t matter and the season is meaningless?

 

[Randy Carson]

#1 Georgia has #8 Bama.
#2 Michigan squares off against #17 Iowa.
#3 Washington faces #5 Oregon.
#4 FSU plays #10 Louisville.

If Oregon wins, I think they are in. One other upset and OSU is back in the mix.

It's gonna be interesting.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Blasphemous, Texas is complete garbage to Alabama at this point in the season and everyone knows it. If Alabama beats UGA i don't want to hear crap about Texas lol.

Per FEI, the two teams are almost completely equal. Bama is 11th in FEI with a 25th ranked OFEI and 7th ranked DFEI where Texas is 13th in FEI with a 23rd ranked OFEI and an 8th ranked DFEI. Since UT has the head to head I'm giving the nod to them.

 

[Bleedwhiteandgold]

So every game doesn’t matter and the season is meaningless?

Look at their schedules bud, this is not a record discussion or who beat who, that game was extremely early in the season and the teams are completely different at this point. If Alabama beats the #1 team in the nation the Texas loss is voided and Alabama is in. No discussion about it, you shoudlnt even have to think about it. The Iron Bowl was a trap game and good teams always find a way to win.

 

[Bleedwhiteandgold]

Per FEI, the two teams are almost completely equal. Bama is 11th in FEI with a 25th ranked OFEI and 7th ranked DFEI where Texas is 13th in FEI with a 23rd ranked OFEI and an 8th ranked DFEI. Since UT has the head to head I'm giving the nod to them.

After they beat the #1 team, so you have no SEC team in playoff? Man yall need to go back to the drawing board on these terrible takes

 

[Randy Carson]

We simply disagree on how a very good QB can impact a team. He touches the ball nearly every offensive play. No one defensive player can come close to having the same level impact on a game.

Lawrence Taylor?

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

After they beat the #1 team, so you have no SEC team in playoff? Man yall need to go back to the drawing board on these terrible takes

"Terrible take" is straight from the CFP selection protocol. I bolded the pertinent part for you.

When circumstances at the margins indicate that teams are comparable, then the following criteria must be considered:

• Championships won
• Strength of schedule
• Head‐to‐head competition (if it occurred)
• Comparative outcomes of common opponents (without incenting margin of victory)

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

CFP Selection Committee Protocol

collegefootballplayoff.com

Edit to add that Texas is currently ranked ahead of Bama by the playoff committee.

 

[Thwg777]

Not that I want it to happen but I think the most likely CFP teams are u(sic)ga, Michigan, Oregon and Texas. All four of these teams are favored to win their games this weekend. FSU is now a very small favorite of UL, I think they lose their game. (Again, I’m not rooting for this but I think this is what will actually happen…)

 

[orientalnc]

I actually think there is relatively little for the committee to do this year.
I believe 3 of the 4 spots are already spoken for.

I believe UGA and Michigan are in, win or lose in their conference championships. Even if they lose they will be the highest one loss rated teams by the committee. The committee will not punish those 2 for losing a conference championship game.
The third spot that is locked up is the PAC. The winner of that game is getting an invite. You will have either an undefeated Washington or a 1-loss Oregon that has been dominating opponents and just avenged its only defeat.

That leaves one spot.
If FSU beats L'ville they will get that spot. Committee will not leave out an undefeated power conference champ.
If FSU loses and Texas wins then Texas gets the spot.
If both FSU and TX lose and AL beats GA then AL gets this slot.

So imo you have 2 teams that are in.
You have 2 teams fighting for 1 spot.
You have 3 teams fighting for the last spot.

one last scenario, if OR bests WA, but FSU, TX and AL all lose then I could see Washington getting the final slot.

The scenario that keeps uga out of the playoff is for Michigan, Washington and FSU to win and uga to lose. That is where the committee has to decide to take uga over Bama. Maybe they will do that, but it will not be an easy decision. The same might be true if Oregon beats Washington.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

This is the selection committee roster this year. Only one member has ANY ties to the SEC. B1G and PAC have the most connections on this committee.

2024-25 Selection Committee Roster - College Football Playoff

The official 2024-25 Selection Committee Roster for the College Football Playoff

collegefootballplayoff.com

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Not that I want it to happen but I think the most likely CFP teams are u(sic)ga, Michigan, Oregon and Texas. All four of these teams are favored to win their games this weekend. FSU is now a very small favorite of UL, I think they lose their game. (Again, I’m not rooting for this but I think this is what will actually happen…)

If FSU loses then this is a likely scenario. If FSU wins and all the other favorites win then Texas is left out.

 

[Bogey]

That was one of the worst officiating mistakes I've ever seen. The Auburn guy almost got his head ripped off and the ref was right there.

Another terrible call was made in the Gator/FSU game. The Florida QB was in the pocket and a FSU defender had a running, straight shot and destroyed the QB with a clean hit. Unnecessary roughness was the call and the ref never called out the number of the player. The announcers called it for what it was, strictly a clean football play. This call gave Florida 4 extra points early in the game.

 

[slugboy]

Blasphemous, Texas is complete garbage to Alabama at this point in the season and everyone knows it. If Alabama beats UGA i don't want to hear crap about Texas lol.

I watched them against Texas Tech, and they meet the eye test and then some

Watching Bama against Auburn, Texas looked better this weekend