CFP Discussion

[leatherneckjacket]

I think some of you are confusing what you want to happen with what will actually happen. There is not a scenario where the SEC does not make the playoff. They will screw over a undefeated ACC champ for a one loss SEC champ. Bank on it.

 

[stinger78]

AL needs alot to happen to have a chance to get in, starting with TX losing. TX win against Bama (at Bama no less) effectively blocks AL ceiling. Head to head is a major component in what the committee uses.
If TX wins, then AL can not finish ahead of it in the committee by any means.

If WASH, FSU, MICH, TX all win, as suggested in a post above, then I think the final order will be:
1) Mich
2) WASH
3) FSU
4) UGA

Committee does not use comparative analysis (ie. TX > AL > UGA) only direct (TX > AL). Everyone knows you cannot use transitive property in FB.
UGA with a loss will be ranked as the top 1 loss team by the committee. Michigan would be the same.

UGA and MICH are dead locks at this point imo.
TX can only get in with a FSU loss.

IMO the B1G, SEC and PAC have slots locked up. The final slot comes down to the ACC or B12 with the possibility of a 2nd SEC bid in a total chaos case.

My only quibble would be that tOSU would have a good case for that #4 slot if Bama wins.

 

[Thwg777]

All you had to do was listen to Sean McDonough’s 3-hour infomercial about UGA during our game Saturday night to see this.

lol well I was doing my part Saturday night at BDS and am slowly recovering my voice.

Nonetheless, I am doubtful Alabama beats ugag and I’m just as skeptical as many others that even if this happens, I’m not convinced ugag is sitting at home for CFP. Only we had the chance to put a nail in that.

 

[Root4GT]

AL needs alot to happen to have a chance to get in, starting with TX losing. TX win against Bama (at Bama no less) effectively blocks AL ceiling. Head to head is a major component in what the committee uses.
If TX wins, then AL can not finish ahead of it in the committee by any means.

If WASH, FSU, MICH, TX all win, as suggested in a post above, then I think the final order will be:
1) Mich
2) WASH
3) FSU
4) UGA

Committee does not use comparative analysis (ie. TX > AL > UGA) only direct (TX > AL). Everyone knows you cannot use transitive property in FB.
UGA with a loss will be ranked as the top 1 loss team by the committee. Michigan would be the same.

UGA and MICH are dead locks at this point imo.
TX can only get in with a FSU loss.

IMO the B1G, SEC and PAC have slots locked up. The final slot comes down to the ACC or B12 with the possibility of a 2nd SEC bid in a total chaos case.

It will be interesting to see if the Committee holds to their guidelines. I have serious doubts that they will if they can rationalize team X is better than team Y currently regardless if their guidelines.

 

[bobongo]

AL needs alot to happen to have a chance to get in, starting with TX losing. TX win against Bama (at Bama no less) effectively blocks AL ceiling. Head to head is a major component in what the committee uses.
If TX wins, then AL can not finish ahead of it in the committee by any means.

If WASH, FSU, MICH, TX all win, as suggested in a post above, then I think the final order will be:
1) Mich
2) WASH
3) FSU
4) UGA

Committee does not use comparative analysis (ie. TX > AL > UGA) only direct (TX > AL). Everyone knows you cannot use transitive property in FB.
UGA with a loss will be ranked as the top 1 loss team by the committee. Michigan would be the same.

UGA and MICH are dead locks at this point imo.
TX can only get in with a FSU loss.

IMO the B1G, SEC and PAC have slots locked up. The final slot comes down to the ACC or B12 with the possibility of a 2nd SEC bid in a total chaos case.

You can't use the transitive property to determine who's the better team necessarily or who should be favored, but the committee cannot overlook Texas>Alabama>Georgia. Head-to-head results are a major factor.
No way Alabama beats Georgia and Georgia gets in while they're left out. Won't happen. In that scenario, if one SEC team gets in it will be Alabama. If Georgia loses to Alabama, the only way for Georgia to make it in is if they both get in.

 

[stinger78]

It was very bad. In a world of hyperbole, it was the worst I’ve ever experienced. Imagine sitting at the game next to a homer mutt with a mic all game.

 

[MWBATL]

Wait a minute, what about those on this board that say there is SEC bias. Louisville losing to Kentucky at home was a very bad ACC loss. Heck Louisville could easily be the ACC Champion. FSU barley squeaked by a bad Florida team. And don't try and use FSU QB out as an excuse. FLA also had a backup QB play. Clemson also struggled with a bad USC East team.

Rivalry games are strange, still the better team wins most of the time.

You are what your record says you are. ACC beat the SEC this year. You can be an SEC homer and make their usual rationalizations and excuses, but…SCOREBOARD.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I think some of you are confusing what you want to happen with what will actually happen. There is not a scenario where the SEC does not make the playoff. They will screw over a undefeated ACC champ for a one loss SEC champ. Bank on it.

Of the 13 members of this years selection committee, only one has ties to the SEC. Are you saying that a bunch of B1G, PAC, ACC, and G5 people are going to let the one SEC vote to dominate them?

 

[TampaBuzz]

How would you suggest a 130 team league with a 12 game schedule determine their playoff field without a committee? How do these teams "earn" it? Not near enough common opponents.

It is pretty easy....eight conferences with 16 teams each. Conference champ goes to the playoffs. If you don't when your conference, you are out. Don't worry about common opponents; just win your conference.

 

[Thwg777]

Forgetting rankings just for a moment, I think Oregon is playing best at the moment. I think they’d pose the greatest challenge to u(sic)ga.

Perhaps a recency bias on my part, but I have a hard time seeing Michigan do much in the CFP. They look about as good this year as last year when they lost to TCU who didn’t even show up to the big game…

I don’t think Bama pulls it off Saturday. They’ve been too inconsistent all season. I really hope I’m wrong though.

 

[yellajacket20]

I believe the following items are for certain

• Washington - Oregon winner is in
• If Michigan wins, they are in

The rest is where it gets hairy. I don't think that FSU gets left out if they beat UL. If they beat UL, then that means that the SEC Champ is in over Texas. If FSU loses to UL, then I think that Texas makes it along with the SEC Champ. I just don't see anyway that they put Bama and Georgia in unless FSU and Texas lose.

 

[Randy Carson]

It is pretty easy....eight conferences with 16 teams each. Conference champ goes to the playoffs. If you don't when your conference, you are out. Don't worry about common opponents; just win your conference.

And all eight conferences split the TV and bowl appearance money equally. Conferences can bonus the teams that represent them in the post season.

Your school wants more revenue? Win more games. Build a bigger stadium. Sell more tickets. Beg from your alumni.

But TV/playoff money is split up equally among conferences.

If the playing field isn't leveled soon, there will be two super conferences and everyone else (Ivy, Sun Belt, ACC, etc.)

 

[Northeast Stinger]

Forgetting rankings just for a moment, I think Oregon is playing best at the moment. I think they’d pose the greatest challenge to u(sic)ga.

Perhaps a recency bias on my part, but I have a hard time seeing Michigan do much in the CFP. They look about as good this year as last year when they lost to TCU who didn’t even show up to the big game…

I don’t think Bama pulls it off Saturday. They’ve been too inconsistent all season. I really hope I’m wrong though.

Agree about Michigan and Alabama. In spite of respective records both don’t seem to have all the parts in place to be national championship caliber teams.

Oregon and Washington both look really good and the winner should definitely be in the playoffs.

 

[CEB]

Win and in:
uga
Wash
FSU
Mich
Oregon

Win and still need help:
Texas
Bama

No chance at CFP, but can make the biggest difference in the field:
Iowa
Lville

I don’t believe ANYONE can safely lose this weekend. Not even uga.

If the committee follows their own criteria and puts conference championships as a priority / emphasis, there is no at large team getting in over an undefeated or 1-loss conf champ at this point. We’ve been lied to before but if you take them at their word, this has to be the case.

Iowa and Lville are chaos makers.
If both Iowa and Lville win, you can only have three 1 or 0 loss conference champs and an at large will go. If only one of them wins, that’s the help Texas needs.

My gut says:
1. uga
2. Mich
3. Oregon
4. Texas

I’m assuming an FSU loss.

Question:
If uga Tx and Wash win,
Mich and FSU lose,
Who is your “at large” team?

We tend to define chaos as the SEC getting left out, but there is a scenario where you could you could have BiG and ACC sitting at home:
1. uga
2. Tx
3. Oregon
4. Washington

 

[Northeast Stinger]

The more I read this thread the more I want Alabama to break the mutts’ hearts.

 

[wvGT11]

The more I read this thread the more I want Alabama to break the mutts’ hearts.

Same here, at the grocery store yesterday I got barked at by an obnoxious uga fan. I don't usually have my GT cap on but I did that day. Ready for them to be off their high horse

 

[leatherneckjacket]

Of the 13 members of this years selection committee, only one has ties to the SEC. Are you saying that a bunch of B1G, PAC, ACC, and G5 people are going to let the one SEC vote to dominate them?

I am saying there is bias for the SEC everywhere. I was watching College GameDay and even former Big10 players like Desmond Howard and Herbstreit were saying a one loss SEC team gets in over an undefeated FSU.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I am saying there is bias for the SEC everywhere. I was watching College GameDay and even former Big10 players like Desmond Howard and Herbstreit were saying a one loss SEC team gets in over an undefeated FSU.

I don't doubt the media bias. I also don't doubt that if the SEC gets left out the media will howl. The playoff committee likely doesn't care what the media says. The difference is that for the first time in a while there is a legit chance that the SEC will not have a team in the top 4. It's a small chance, but it's a very real chance. If Bama, Washington, FSU and Michigan win then the SEC is likely out of the playoff picture. If Bama and FSU win, and one of either Washington or Michigan loses, then maybe Bama sneaks in.

 

[Thwg777]

The more I read this thread the more I want Alabama to break the mutts’ hearts.

Undefeated ugag favored in the sec championship game playing an Alabama team with one loss to a team from Texas. And Bama coming off of a win over a mediocre Auburn team where their chances of winning were 0.1% at one point… crazy parallels of this year to 2021…

 

[Bogey]

You underestimate the SEC boost. Lucking out against Auburn doesn’t hurt Bama. Beating uga would instantly vault them into at least the top five, maybe higher. If everything was to break just right they could even end up a 2 seed. Yep, I’m that cynical about the SEC’s marketing success on the playoff committee.

Yep. If Bama wins, they will get a tremendous boost by ending UGA's win streak and their performance against Auburn will be overlooked as simply looking ahead to the SEC championship game.