CFP Discussion

billga99

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
615
That’s what I’m afraid of. The BIG and SEC get half the spots. Based on them being ranked high early.
It will never happen. But it would be nice if rankings didn't come out until playoff rankings are announced. That allows half of the season to play out and give teams to proof their rankings on the field. The way it is now, the SEC always gets 5-7 teams in the Top 25 and usually 4-5 in the Top 15 before the season starts
 

TechPhi97

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
468
Location
Davidson, NC
No argument from me. Yes... no computer model can perfectly account for all the variability. However... at least once the model is created (& refined) it provides a repeatable method to determine it's ratings for teams. I'd submit... pollsters methods aren't repeatable. I simply believe computers are better than polls... how much better? Difficult to say.

The reason nothing approaches perfect is humans play the games and are unpredictable.... nothing (computers or people) can account for all that. ...which is why we keep watching.

Your last sentence seems like a stretch if you meant it literally.
We agree, and I do believe that they are no better than the average fan at picking exact games. I’ve got the numbers ATS, and the FEI is around 50% on the yard ATS.
 

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
Messages
9,449
College football rankings still baffle me. Did anyone on here really believe Mississippi was the number 10 team in the country? I certainly didn’t. And if you did I would like to know why. Likewise, I still think Tennessee is very mediocre this year in spite of all the love they got in the polls.

Is Michigan good? I’m skeptical of them as well. Alabama looks good in the way that Clemson looks good. Flawed teams with a lot of studs and horsepower, not complete teams, even though their rosters are loaded with talent.

My top 4 teams would be:

FSU
Georgia
Ohio State
Texas
 

CEB

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,001
College football rankings still baffle me. Did anyone on here really believe Mississippi was the number 10 team in the country? I certainly didn’t. And if you did I would like to know why. Likewise, I still think Tennessee is very mediocre this year in spite of all the love they got in the polls.

Is Michigan good? I’m skeptical of them as well. Alabama looks good in the way that Clemson looks good. Flawed teams with a lot of studs and horsepower, not complete teams, even though their rosters are loaded with talent.

My top 4 teams would be:

FSU
Georgia
Ohio State
Texas
Don’t disagree with anything you say until your top 4.
Michigan gained a lot of clout today. Not enough to be top 4 yet, but they’re legit. Washington has done more and looked better than both UGA and Texas.
In terms of actual resume…
OSU, Wash, FSU, UGA, with Michigan a close 4(b).
 

JacketOff

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,811
College football rankings still baffle me. Did anyone on here really believe Mississippi was the number 10 team in the country? I certainly didn’t. And if you did I would like to know why. Likewise, I still think Tennessee is very mediocre this year in spite of all the love they got in the polls.

Is Michigan good? I’m skeptical of them as well. Alabama looks good in the way that Clemson looks good. Flawed teams with a lot of studs and horsepower, not complete teams, even though their rosters are loaded with talent.

My top 4 teams would be:

FSU
Georgia
Ohio State
Texas
If you’re going to rank 25 teams, somebody has to be ranked 9th. Ole Miss had as good of a resume as anybody with 1 loss going into this weekend. There were only 6 P5 teams with 1 loss going into this weekend, and Ole Miss was ranked as the 4th best one. Behind
  • Oregon (lost to #5 Wash)
  • Texas (lost to #25 K-State)
  • and Alabama (lost to #6 Texas).
They were ahead of Penn State (lost to #1 Ohio State), and Louisville (lost to unranked Pitt). I think their ranking was fair, who else would you put in that spot? You could shuffle them around with the teams behind them, but they deserved to be ranked no worse than 12th.

Part of the reason why the whole rankings system is stupid is: Do you rank the teams based on who’s most deserving, or who you think is the better team? It’s been an issue with the CFP committee before, and will continue to be when the playoff expands to 12. It may become even more of an issue, because as this week’s rankings prove; the gap between #4 & #5 is generally a lot larger than the gap between #5 & #15. It’s where the “good loss” argument comes into play, which may be the worst phrase in all of sports. Is a 9-3 team with 3 “good losses” better than a 10-2 team with a couple of “bad losses?” How do you compare wins and losses when teams don’t play a single common opponent? I wish the playoff system would just go cut-and-dry conference champions and conference runner ups, but they won’t because conferences can lobby and manipulate their way to loading up the playoff.
 

Northeast Stinger

Helluva Engineer
Messages
9,449
Don’t disagree with anything you say until your top 4.
Michigan gained a lot of clout today. Not enough to be top 4 yet, but they’re legit. Washington has done more and looked better than both UGA and Texas.
In terms of actual resume…
OSU, Wash, FSU, UGA, with Michigan a close 4(b).
That’s reasonable. The difficulty sometimes is lack of a common opponent. Then pollsters have to extrapolate based on records against teams that had high preseason rankings. Evidence, other than record and eyeball test, can be scant.

That leaves us with grabbing at the least little thing to make comparisons. For instance, Texas visited Alabama’s home field and came away with a convincing win. Georgia will play Alabama with a “home field” advantage and will either win by a greater margin, win by a slim margin, or lose. Only the loss would tell us anything.
 

orientalnc

Helluva Engineer
Retired Staff
Messages
9,181
Location
Oriental, NC
Here are the possibles:

Bama and/or uga - The winner of the SECCG or both if Bama wins in a close game
Mich and/or tOSU - The winner of their regular season game or both if it's close
Texas - Only if they are B12 champs
Washington and/or Oregon - The winner of the PACn or both if a lot of dominoes fall
FSU - Only if they are ACC champs; I don't see UL getting a shot even if they stomp FSU


Here are the likelies:

uga
Mich
Washington
FSU
 

CEB

Helluva Engineer
Messages
2,001
Here are the possibles:

Bama and/or uga - The winner of the SECCG or both if Bama wins in a close game
Mich and/or tOSU - The winner of their regular season game or both if it's close
Texas - Only if they are B12 champs
Washington and/or Oregon - The winner of the PACn or both if a lot of dominoes fall
FSU - Only if they are ACC champs; I don't see UL getting a shot even if they stomp FSU


Here are the likelies:

uga
Mich
Washington
FSU
I think 1- loss (or undefeated) conf champs are in. The exception is if all five conferences have a 1 loss or undefeated champ. This year looks like a conference championship loss eliminates you. We’re running out of weeks for chaos… but I guess there is still time.

I THINK FSU has the best chance to be undefeated and that’s bad news for Texas. Washington has a really tough run left, and I think they need to stay undefeated to get in…. Not because they are weaker than other potential 1-loss teams but because the loss can’t come in the conf champ game. If they are going to lose, the only “safe” loss for them is OrState next weekend.

If I were making a prediction, I think you’ve got the right four. OSU has a lot to say about that Michigan pick though…
 

g0lftime

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,278
I thought the original intent was to get the best 4 teams into a national playoff. Maybe it has morphed into conference champions that are undefeated, then subjectively pick the best 4 if more than 4 are undefeated. It gets controversial if there are some one loss conference Champs.
 

Thwg777

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
351
I thought the original intent was to get the best 4 teams into a national playoff. Maybe it has morphed into conference champions that are undefeated, then subjectively pick the best 4 if more than 4 are undefeated. It gets controversial if there are some one loss conference Champs.

I think the intent has always been to pick the teams that will result in the most TV revenue.
 

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,917
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
I thought the original intent was to get the best 4 teams into a national playoff. Maybe it has morphed into conference champions that are undefeated, then subjectively pick the best 4 if more than 4 are undefeated. It gets controversial if there are some one loss conference Champs.
They publish what they are attempting to do. It includes so much ambiguity on criteria... they can (and do) reationalize their 4 picks without much problem. My favorite... "and other factors"


The selection committee ranks the teams based on the members’ evaluation of the teams’ performance on the field, using conference championships won, strength of schedule, head-to-head results, and comparison of results against common opponents to decide among teams that are comparable.

The four teams that go to the College Football Playoff are determined by the College Football Playoff Selection Committee. The selection committee chooses the four teams for the playoff based on strength of schedule, head-to-head results against common opponents, championships won and other factors.
 

roadkill

Helluva Engineer
Messages
1,036
Now that we know the SEC championship will be uga vs Bama, there is a plausible scenario that the committee could struggle with:

All currently undefeated teams win out their regular season except the loser of Michigan-Ohio State. Bama also wins out. This is not unlikely and will result in 4 undefeated P5 teams. Let's also assume the 4 undefeated win their respective conference championships, except,...

Bama beats uga and wins the SEC. Both uga and Bama are then 12-1. Both teams have been playing dominant football towards the end of the season; uga has slightly better scores against common opponents.

So for the playoff, do you select uga over Bama, which they just lost to, and leave Bama out despite them being SEC champs? Or do you select both and leave out 2 undefeated conference champions? Or do you leave out uga and select all conference champs? If Texas also wins out they may also have a case due to beating Bama, although their resume includes several very close calls plus a loss.
 

FredJacket

Helluva Engineer
Messages
5,917
Location
Fredericksburg, Virginia
Now that we know the SEC championship will be uga vs Bama, there is a plausible scenario that the committee could struggle with:

All currently undefeated teams win out their regular season except the loser of Michigan-Ohio State. Bama also wins out. This is not unlikely and will result in 4 undefeated P5 teams. Let's also assume the 4 undefeated win their respective conference championships, except,...

Bama beats uga and wins the SEC. Both uga and Bama are then 12-1. Both teams have been playing dominant football towards the end of the season; uga has slightly better scores against common opponents.

So for the playoff, do you select uga over Bama, which they just lost to, and leave Bama out despite them being SEC champs? Or do you select both and leave out 2 undefeated conference champions? Or do you leave out uga and select all conference champs? If Texas also wins out they may also have a case due to beating Bama, although their resume includes several very close calls plus a loss.
Fun to noodle through....
- I don't see any way the committee could justify leaving out undefeated conference champs.
- Every year (at this time) I see "obvious" scenarios that create great chaos for the committee... but every year there are teams that let the committee "off the hook" by losing late
 
Top