Here’s my gold-tinted glasses scenario:
There are still a lot of games to be played but we are starting to see some data and trends. As of today, we (2-1 ACC) are second to North Carolina (2-0) in the Coastal.
Likely Wins: Virginia, VT. Those teams look much worse than us on paper now. Getting Virginia after our Bye week should help continue our journey of ‘learning how to win” as CBK says.
Probable Win if we continue playing solid D and avoid critical injuries: Miami. They’ve lost their last 3 and don’t look anything like the good team they seemed to be after their first couple of games. We also get them after their typically slugfest rivalry game against FSU.
"Possible" Win if we continue to address our weak areas: FSU. FSU (4-2) is an improved team this year. They’ve dropped their last two, but against very good Wake and NC St. teams. A couple of their wins were very close. I’d say they are a slightly above-average-to-good team. This game could be critical for us in the Coastal race. Unfortunately it’s in Tally.
Win those above (big IF, but doable) and we will be 6-1 going into the NC game. They still have to play the very good Wake and NC St. teams which are probable losses for them. I don't think we can score enough to beat NC, and a loss to them would yield identical ACC records (6-2). NC would own the tiebreaker with us placing 2nd. However, if NC drops another game (Pitt, for example), we could be going to Charlotte even if we lose to them.
Does this scenario sound crazy?
I think it’s plausible.
The way I see it, both us and UVA have byes this week in preparation for the Thursday night game. We’re coming off a high, they’re coming off a low. They’ve lost 3 in a row including 2 pretty bad beat downs against Duke and Louisville. We’ve won 2 close games that could’ve very easily went the other way. We’ll be playing at home with (hopefully) a very energized crowd and I think we’ll be able to hold on in another game that’s close on the scoreboard but that we control the game in. Very similar to how Duke played out.
We get another long week to prepare for FSU, who will be coming off a bye week and a game against Clemson. It’s very likely they will also have 3 straight losses coming into our game with a lot of time to prepare. We could also be a trap game for them, as we are sandwiched between Clemson and Miami on their schedule, but their bye week may mitigate some of that. It’s hard to go into Tallahassee and win, and I think they’re going to be hungry after the Clemson game and a bye week. I think we drop a close one to FSU, kind of the opposite of the Duke game. FSU controls the game but we hang around and keep it close and give ourselves a chance to win. That would put us at 4-4 and 3-2 in conference.
I think we answer big time the next week against VT. They will have just played NC ST on the road in what will likely be a very lopsided game. The Lane Stadium crowd will be small and disinterested. A VT team that’s already not very good. We’ll be coming off our first loss in the Key era and the team will respond with a lot of energy. I think we dominate in all 3 phases of the game and leave Blacksburg with something like a 31-10 victory. That’s gets us to 5-4 and 4-2.
Next week is a home game against Miami. I think this draws the best GT crowd since the 2018 game against Miami. Definitely not a sell out but somewhere in the 45k range. Miami gets FSU at home the week before us. Cristobal’s first real barometer for what he’s going to do. I think they edge out FSU in a heart racing thriller, but can’t settle down enough to get prepared for our game. They make mistakes early, turnovers and penalties. We take advantage and get out ahead early. They make a ferocious comeback but it’s not enough, as the BDS crowd causes chaos on Miami’s last possession of the game. We escape with a 30-28 victory and get bowl eligible at 6-4 and 5-2.
UNC rolls through their next 3 games of Duke, Pitt, and UVA. They’re sitting at 8-1 and 5-0 with their only loss coming to Notre Dame. They get ready for a top 20 matchup against Wake Forest, who just dropped a game to NC St. Wake rallies after an in-state loss to hold off the Tar Holes at home, dropping UNC to 8-2 and 5-1. That means the GT vs. UNC game is for the Coastal title. The rest is to be continued…
