2021 ACC Baseball

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NC State is now 14-13 in conference play. Remember they started out 1-8. What an incredible turnaround. Of course at the time we all knew their first 3 series were Georgia Tech, Miami, and Louisville. But still. They've won 6 of their last 7 with the only loss being 14-11. Their next ACC series is in 2 weeks at the Pitt Duckers. LFG Wooofpack!
 
FredJacket

FredJacket

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3 series remain: Clemson, at Miami, UNC.

As tough as this season has been... battling consistency... frustrating losses, etc.... IF we can get on somewhat of a roll, winning the division &/or a good seeding position for ACC tournament is there for taking. Don't even need a huge roll... just winning more than you lose over those 9 games is probably enough.
 
FredJacket

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If the ACC Tournament started today (it doesn't) ... this is how the pools would be set...

PoolA: #1ND, #8MIA, #12DUKE
PoolD: #4PITT, #5FSU, #9CLEM

PoolB: #2GT, #7NCST, #11UVA
PoolC: #3LOU, #6VT, #10UNC

Semis:
Winner A v Winner D
Winner B v Winner B

2 weekends of ACC play left... lots of jumbling to occur. In other words.. now we know how it isn't going to look. :)

If you guys were listening to Wiley yesterday, he mentioned the benefit of being a top 4 seed (highest in your pool). He did mis-speak a little when he said it means you only need to win ONE game in pool play to advance to semis. That is only true if all 3 teams in the pool go 1-1 in pool play. The other possible outcome is: 2-0, 1-1, 0-2. In this case, the 2-0 team advances.
 

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LibertyTurns said:
Not going to be easy.
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100%. We could play great baseball and go 1-2 against Miami and 2-1 against UNCheat.

Georgia Tech 18-12 0.600 win%

Caveat - my math. :) I did this with overall win% and not by division, so note we're technically seeded #2 right now for the ACCT because Loserville is on the other side with Notre Dame.

Current projected forward final standings:
1) Notre Dame Half Duckers (22-10) 0.688 win% - finish @ Virginia Tech. Even if they get swept, we can't catch them in win percentage unless we go at least 5-1.
2) Louisville Full Duckers (16-10) 0.615 win% - finish @ UNCheat then home against Miami. We need to pickup 1 game on them to finish ahead of them. In other words, if they go 4-2, we have to go 5-1.
3) Georgia Tech Big Ballers (18-12) 0.600 win%

4) Pitt Full Duckers (16-11) 0.593 win% - finish vs NC State and @ Wake. They have to finish with 1 more win than we do the last 2 series to pass us in the standings. In other words, if we go 4-2, they have to go 5-1 or else their win% stays below us.
5) Florida State (17-13) 0.567 win% - finish vs Clemson and @ NC State. Turrrble remaining schedule. If they pick up one more win than us, then they tie us and win the head to head tiebreaker. Their schedule leaves me a little comfortable here.

On first glance, pretty much everybody else behind here would have to sweep to pass us and even then that might not be enough.

Note Florida State is on the other side, so we'll likely either win the Coastal, or finish second to Pitt. #2 seed or #4 seed in the ACCT. I just like also looking at the ACC standings overall.
 
FredJacket

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SnidelyWhiplash said:
100%. We could play great baseball and go 1-2 against Miami and 2-1 against UNCheat.

Georgia Tech 18-12 0.600 win%

Caveat - my math. :) I did this with overall win% and not by division, so note we're technically seeded #2 right now for the ACCT because Loserville is on the other side with Notre Dame.

Current projected forward final standings:
1) Notre Dame Half Duckers (22-10) 0.688 win% - finish @ Virginia Tech. Even if they get swept, we can't catch them in win percentage unless we go at least 5-1.
2) Louisville Full Duckers (16-10) 0.615 win% - finish @ UNCheat then home against Miami. We need to pickup 1 game on them to finish ahead of them. In other words, if they go 4-2, we have to go 5-1.
3) Georgia Tech Big Ballers (18-12) 0.600 win%

4) Pitt Full Duckers (16-11) 0.593 win% - finish vs NC State and @ Wake. They have to finish with 1 more win than we do the last 2 series to pass us in the standings. In other words, if we go 4-2, they have to go 5-1 or else their win% stays below us.
5) Florida State (17-13) 0.567 win% - finish vs Clemson and @ NC State. Turrrble remaining schedule. If they pick up one more win than us, then they tie us and win the head to head tiebreaker. Their schedule leaves me a little comfortable here.

On first glance, pretty much everybody else behind here would have to sweep to pass us and even then that might not be enough.

Note Florida State is on the other side, so we'll likely either win the Coastal, or finish second to Pitt. #2 seed or #4 seed in the ACCT. I just like also looking at the ACC standings overall.
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Division winners are #1 and #2 seeds. As you said... nearly impossible for Ga Tech to be #1 seed.

Seeds #3-12 are based on conference winning percentage regardless of division. Quite possible the Atlantic gets #1, #3, #4 seeds (ND, LOU, FSU).

Ga Tech controls its own destiny... just win and stay ahead of Pitt & VT. For VT to pass Ga Tech, VT would have to go on a tear and Ga Tech would have to really fizzle; but mathematically possible.
 

bensaysitathome

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FredJacket said:
Division winners are #1 and #2 seeds. As you said... nearly impossible for Ga Tech to be #1 seed.

Seeds #3-12 are based on conference winning percentage regardless of division. Quite possible the Atlantic gets #1, #3, #4 seeds (ND, LOU, FSU).

Ga Tech controls its own destiny... just win and stay ahead of Pitt & VT. For VT to pass Ga Tech, VT would have to go on a tear and Ga Tech would have to really fizzle; but mathematically possible.
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So step 1: just win baby.

Step 2: root for NCSU and Clemson to keep FSU down a peg. If we don't stay ahead of Pitt, sneaking in to the 4-seed is fine by me.
 

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bensaysitathome said:
So step 1: just win baby.
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Having witnessed GT baseball for 5 decades now, I have learned one can NEVER EVER assume what the outcomes of series will be in advance. All I feel comfortable in predicting is that in the ACC we will go anywhere from 0-6 to 6-0.

All I really care about is the post-season, to be honest. I really would like to see us (1) get to a Regional; and (2) win same (for the first time in forever....)
 
GTNavyNuke

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MWBATL said:
Having witnessed GT baseball for 5 decades now, I have learned one can NEVER EVER assume what the outcomes of series will be in advance. All I feel comfortable in predicting is that in the ACC we will go anywhere from 0-6 to 6-0.

All I really care about is the post-season, to be honest. I really would like to see us (1) get to a Regional; and (2) win same (for the first time in forever....)
Click to expand...

This year we may not even play 6 games and take the Pitt wimp out route. Lock in where we are. But I think we are better than Pitt and will play all the games. (Did I do that right @FredJacket ?)

The only consistency this year is inconsistency. I never assume the outcomes; our probability of sweeping Clemson was not very high based on past performance. Especially after losing the weekend series to whoever it was.
 
FredJacket

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ACC Baseball Action Weekend #12 (of 13)

*Ga Tech (18-12) at *Miami (15-14): Just WIN... and all that follows matters not!
NC State (14-13) at *Pitt (16-11): NCST is 13-5 in after going 1-8 early in ACC play. Need them to keep rollin'!!
*Va Tech (16-14) at *Duke (10-17): Go Duke!
Louisville (16-10) at *UNC (14-16): UNC win 2or3?... or whatever it takes for Ga Tech to end up ahead of both these teams in standings.
Wake (7-19) at *UVA (13-17): Neither team a threat to Ga Tech (in standings).
Clemson (15-15) at FSU (17-13): Go Tigers! FSU in hunt for a top 4 ACC tournament seed... slow that roll.

BC and ND both OFF

For Ga Tech... it's a broken record now; but team just needs to win and they'll get in a good spot for the post-season (ACC tourney and NCAAs). IF they end up having to rely on other teams to lose/win, that means we've transitioned to a "Plan B" and not winning enough. I feel like simply winning these last 2 series... going 4-2 is plenty to get the job done. If Pitt and/or FSU win 5 or more over these 2 weekends... then you tip your cap. They probably deserve it.

But for those of us who like to find things to complain about...
1) Pitt avoided Louisville (.615) and Clemson (.500) this year.
2) Ga Tech avoided BC (.300).
 
4shotB

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FredJacket said:
But for those of us who like to find things to complain about...
1) Pitt avoided Louisville (.615) and Clemson (.500) this year.
2) Ga Tech avoided BC (.300).
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C'mon Fred....must of us are more than capable of finding things to complain about ON OUR OWN. We don't need no stinkin' help. Haven't we thoroughly demonstrated that to you over the years!? Or do you think we are getting soft? let's win or else fire somebody!! ;)
 
FredJacket

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I'm in FULL ON "scoreboard watching" mode... with 5 conference games remaining & very tight records with too many teams not playing same total games. Makes my fredhead hurt.

ETA... All games today that impact Ga Tech will be complete or close by 1st pitch in Miami.
 
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