2019 ACC Baseball

[CINCYMETJACKET]

I didn't think WVU was that good. That win just looks so much better.

I don't think West Virginia was considered to be that good until the last 3 or 4 weeks. When we played them week 1, it was expected that they would be a good team, but they got off to a slow start. They had won 1 at Oregon State (#2 in D1 baseball RPI), but had been swept by Baylor (#39 RPI). The last 3 weeks, they've won 2/3 against Oklahoma (#38 RPI), @ Oklahoma State (#30 RPI), and vs Texas Tech (#14 RPI). So the WV win is shaping up to be a very nice win.

 

[gtrower]

I think if the season ended today we’d be hosting. Don’t think it’s unreasonable to think we could get hot and end up seeded either to be honest. Put a consistent bullpen arm (Archer) on this team and it’s probably Top 5 in the polls right now.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I think if the season ended today we’d be hosting. Don’t think it’s unreasonable to think we could get hot and end up seeded either to be honest. Put a consistent bullpen arm (Archer) on this team and it’s probably Top 5 in the polls right now.

For real.

We're 25-12. We can't change the past, but lets not forget:
1) We gave up 5 runs in the 8th to Northwestern to lose when we were winning.
2) We gave up 2 runs in the 9th to Miami to lose when we were winning.
3) We gave up 3 runs in the 9th to Virginia to lose when we were winning.
4) We gave up 2 runs in the 9th to Louisville to lose when we were winning.
5) While it wasn't late in the game, we were beating Notre Dame in the 5th before giving up 5 runs and losing.

Those games are the difference between a very good 25-12 and an elite 28-30 wins and only 7-9 losses.

 

[ramblinwreckguru]

Currently #9 in RPI after all of last night’s action. Nice to see us in single digits for any beesball ranking.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Just chill, there is a lot of baseball to play. What we do in the next 5 weeks and tourney will be more important than our losses to date. We have a lot of signature series wins.

Just have to take the Clemson and UGAg series and we'll be in great shape for a super regional host, assuming we win the other easier ones. The ACC Tourney won't matter much if we win a couple. Other ACC teams (FSU, UVa) are going to desperately need to win the ACC Tourney to get a bid probably.

Beat. Cowardly. Castrated. Turkeys. Tomorrow.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

Weekly guesses, no upsets as I'm in a hurry. All guesses assume all three games of course.:

• #11 GT (9 rpi) @ VT (45 rpi). GT 2-1. Close due to weather. It is going to be cold (50F on Sat & Sun if we play.)
• #23 Miami (18) @#8 LVille (4). LVille 2-1 or better. LVille is coming alive.
• FSU (62) @ UVa (96). FSU 2-1. UVa is in too much of a downturn to pick them. FSU trying to make NCAAs. I hope but don't see UVa taking series.
• #9 NC State (22) @ WF (84). NC State 2-1 or better. My guess is NC State will resurrect.
• Duke (72) @#24 Clemson (24). Clemson 2-1. Duke has some good pitching and should win at least one.
• ND (121) @ Pitt (220). ND 2-1. Pitt is not good. ND is less worse.
• BC (66)@#17 UNC (20). UNC 2-1. UNC has talent and is at home.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I just want to win Game 1. Honest to pete we’ve lost the first game in almost every ACC series this season.

 

[tkh74]

Let me share with you how a 72 year old spent the last half hour, and ask a question for those who understand the RPI better than I. Looking at todays RPI it looks like we would be on the bubble to be a top 8 seed, and UGA would be a lock. Looking at the sch. going forward for both teams we play 7 Q1 teams the rest of the season not counting the ACC Tour. Also 3 games with a Q2 team. The rest of the sch. is quite weak to say the least, and we should win most/all of these games.
Looking at UGA they play 16 Q1 teams, and the rest are mid week weaklings. They are going to lose quite a few of these games for sure, but their SOS is going to rise.
I've said all this, and remember I've got an old brain and am new to understanding the RPI, to get to this point. If to get a top 8 seed it is between us and UGA who has the advantage sch. wise? Also if it comes down to us, or them getting a top 8 seed then Tues. 4/23 is HUGE!!!!!!! Wife said we could go!!!! I love her!!

 

[Deleted member 2897]

Let me share with you how a 72 year old spent the last half hour, and ask a question for those who understand the RPI better than I. Looking at todays RPI it looks like we would be on the bubble to be a top 8 seed, and UGA would be a lock. Looking at the sch. going forward for both teams we play 7 Q1 teams the rest of the season not counting the ACC Tour. Also 3 games with a Q2 team. The rest of the sch. is quite weak to say the least, and we should win most/all of these games.
Looking at UGA they play 16 Q1 teams, and the rest are mid week weaklings. They are going to lose quite a few of these games for sure, but their SOS is going to rise.
I've said all this, and remember I've got an old brain and am new to understanding the RPI, to get to this point. If to get a top 8 seed it is between us and UGA who has the advantage sch. wise? Also if it comes down to us, or them getting a top 8 seed then Tues. 4/23 is HUGE!!!!!!! Wife said we could go!!!! I love her!!

I don't think there is a straight and easy answer. With a materially more difficult schedule, they could lose more games than us and still end up with a similar RPI. It also matters at home versus on the road. So it could be that our going 12-4 would be equivalent to them going 10-6. Or it could be 12-4 is equivalent to going 19-7 or 11-5. It really just depends on who we beat and where and the same with them. The other thing with RPI is that its based on who you play. So if our opponents that we've already played do significantly better (or worse) than the opponents they've already played, our RPIs can shift up or down several places without even playing a game ourselves.

 

[FredJacket]

Let me share with you how a 72 year old spent the last half hour, and ask a question for those who understand the RPI better than I. Looking at todays RPI it looks like we would be on the bubble to be a top 8 seed, and UGA would be a lock. Looking at the sch. going forward for both teams we play 7 Q1 teams the rest of the season not counting the ACC Tour. Also 3 games with a Q2 team. The rest of the sch. is quite weak to say the least, and we should win most/all of these games.
Looking at UGA they play 16 Q1 teams, and the rest are mid week weaklings. They are going to lose quite a few of these games for sure, but their SOS is going to rise.
I've said all this, and remember I've got an old brain and am new to understanding the RPI, to get to this point. If to get a top 8 seed it is between us and UGA who has the advantage sch. wise? Also if it comes down to us, or them getting a top 8 seed then Tues. 4/23 is HUGE!!!!!!! Wife said we could go!!!! I love her!!

I don't think there is a straight and easy answer. With a materially more difficult schedule, they could lose more games than us and still end up with a similar RPI. It also matters at home versus on the road. So it could be that our going 12-4 would be equivalent to them going 10-6. Or it could be 12-4 is equivalent to going 19-7 or 11-5. It really just depends on who we beat and where and the same with them. The other thing with RPI is that its based on who you play. So if our opponents that we've already played do significantly better (or worse) than the opponents they've already played, our RPIs can shift up or down several places without even playing a game ourselves.

You guys seem to have it nailed. I'm no expert either. But I will add a couple of thoughts.

- I think (without researching too much) the RPI 'math' does not penalize enough for road losses & gives too much credit for road wins. In other words, I would like the sensitivity to home/road results to be a little lower.

- Remember too...the committee considers more than RPI. Talking heads reference it most to discuss how things will or do shake out come selection time... but I don't know what else the committee considers in setting field. I know they do factor in geographic proximity for assigning the 2-4 seed at each regional to mitigate travel costs & increase fan attendance.

- the scenario of GT & UGA hovering around the 7-10 rank/RPI would probably really come down to head to head on which ONE is a top 8 seed making TUES huge... like @tkh74 mentioned

- I cannot really even wrap my head around the thought of Super Regional at Russ Chandler. In order to set up for that, it is simple. WIN. WIN. & WIN SOME MORE!

- Assuming GT & UGA do finish strong...yet one is not a top 8 seed, I could see committee assigning regionals to set up a GT v UGA super regional.

A lot of baseball left... but fun stuff to talk about.

 

[senoiajacket]

You guys seem to have it nailed. I'm no expert either. But I will add a couple of thoughts.

- I think (without researching too much) the RPI 'math' does not penalize enough for road losses & gives too much credit for road wins. In other words, I would like the sensitivity to home/road results to be a little lower.

- Remember too...the committee considers more than RPI. Talking heads reference it most to discuss how things will or do shake out come selection time... but I don't know what else the committee considers in setting field. I know they do factor in geographic proximity for assigning the 2-4 seed at each regional to mitigate travel costs & increase fan attendance.

- the scenario of GT & UGA hovering around the 7-10 rank/RPI would probably really come down to head to head on which ONE is a top 8 seed making TUES huge... like @tkh74 mentioned

- I cannot really even wrap my head around the thought of Super Regional at Russ Chandler. In order to set up for that, it is simple. WIN. WIN. & WIN SOME MORE!

- Assuming GT & UGA do finish strong...yet one is not a top 8 seed, I could see committee assigning regionals to set up a GT v UGA super regional.

A lot of baseball left... but fun stuff to talk about.

Here is another scenario: One is a Regional Host and the other isnt. Do they send us to toilet town in that case? There would be nothing sweeter than beating them there in "Dukesq" fashion from last year. Given the option though ........ I'd rather host.

 

[FredJacket]

Here is another scenario: One is a Regional Host and the other isnt. Do they send us to toilet town in that case? There would be nothing sweeter than beating them there in "Dukesq" fashion from last year. Given the option though ........ I'd rather host.

For sure... If we end up not hosting, it would be very likely we end up in Athens or another SEC team's regional.

 

[gtbeak]

- Assuming GT & UGA do finish strong...yet one is not a top 8 seed, I could see committee assigning regionals to set up a GT v UGA super regional.

This was a likely scenario in the past, but starting last season the committee seeds the top 16 teams, not just the top 8. The seedings for these top 16 are done without regard to geography. Geography still matters for the 2,3, and 4 seeds in a regional, but no longer matters once the Super Regionals start.

 

[tkh74]

For sure... If we end up not hosting, it would be very likely we end up in Athens or another SEC team's regional.

Outside of a meltdown going forward I think we are getting very close to locking down a regional. Very large 3 game set with Clemson will have a big say in that, as will the Tues. game. I know I'm maybe being greedy, but I can almost feel that top 8 seed from were we are right now. If we and uga both host a regional and advance, I would bet good money we'd see each other in a super.

 

[FredJacket]

This was a likely scenario in the past, but starting last season the committee seeds the top 16 teams, not just the top 8. The seedings for these top 16 are done without regard to geography. Geography still matters for the 2,3, and 4 seeds in a regional, but no longer matters once the Super Regionals start.

Thank you. I actually tried to look this up because I thought a change had occurred. If I understand what you're saying, the committee could still setup the SR matchup by seeding GT / UGA so that they would meet in SR if they win respective regional. I was not suggesting SR are setup geographically... they shouldn't be. As an example...it would be easy enough to set UGA a 6 seed & GT an 11 seed... & then they'd meet in SR?

 

[bensaysitathome]

Outside of a meltdown going forward I think we are getting very close to locking down a regional. Very large 3 game set with Clemson will have a big say in that, as will the Tues. game. I know I'm maybe being greedy, but I can almost feel that top 8 seed from were we are right now. If we and uga both host a regional and advance, I would bet good money we'd see each other in a super.

Like gtbeak was saying, I think we'd only see each other in a super if we were the 8/9 seeds, or 7/10, 6/11, etc. They seed the top 16 and match them up accordingly.

I'm so in deep with the hype, and would love to host supers. But do y'all watch Boyd's World RPI needs report? They show us needing to win 17 out of 18 remianing games to keep a top 8 RPI. http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

 

[tkh74]

Like gtbeak was saying, I think we'd only see each other in a super if we were the 8/9 seeds, or 7/10, 6/11, etc. They seed the top 16 and match them up accordingly.

I'm so in deep with the hype, and would love to host supers. But do y'all watch Boyd's World RPI needs report? They show us needing to win 17 out of 18 remianing games to keep a top 8 RPI. http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

No. Hadn't seen that, and didn't think we were that much of a longshot. Burst my bubble for a moment, but still a lot to play out. It's just fun to be looking at such things this late in our season. In years past with work and whatever I've never looked at it this close. Like someone said above, just WIN, and then WIN some more.

 

[senoiajacket]

Like gtbeak was saying, I think we'd only see each other in a super if we were the 8/9 seeds, or 7/10, 6/11, etc. They seed the top 16 and match them up accordingly.

I'm so in deep with the hype, and would love to host supers. But do y'all watch Boyd's World RPI needs report? They show us needing to win 17 out of 18 remianing games to keep a top 8 RPI. http://boydsworld.com/baseball/rpi/rpineeds.html

Well, this depends on what everyone in front of us does too, correct?

 

[senoiajacket]

Outside of a meltdown going forward I think we are getting very close to locking down a regional. Very large 3 game set with Clemson will have a big say in that, as will the Tues. game. I know I'm maybe being greedy, but I can almost feel that top 8 seed from were we are right now. If we and uga both host a regional and advance, I would bet good money we'd see each other in a super.

I will not allow myself to think that way. As many of you are, I have been a GT (baseball in particular, but extends to all sports) fan too long to allow that anything is close to locked down precisely because you cannot ignore the possibility of a melt down. Here’s to hoping this time is different, but my expectations remained tempered.

 

[Deleted member 2897]

I will not allow myself to think that way. As many of you are, I have been a GT (baseball in particular, but extends to all sports) fan too long to allow that anything is close to locked down precisely because you cannot ignore the possibility of a melt down. Here’s to hoping this time is different, but my expectations remained tempered.

Baseball in particular is a crazy sport where there are teams all throughout the Top 25 with 10+ losses...right now, even with 20 games left. Anybody can win any game.