2019 ACC Baseball

MWBATL

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Female Jacket said:
“Junior RHP Tim Elliott(5-1, 1.52 ERA) will start versus Tech for the third time this season. He is 1-0 with a 2.38 ERA against the Yellow Jackets this year. In 11.1 IP he has allowed 4R, 3ER, 7H, 5BB and 13 K. Tech will counter with freshman right-hander Cort Roedig (1-1, 4.05 ERA). He will be making his fifth start of the year.”
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This tells me that Hurter is hurting. And that Hall expects he will need Willingham this coming weekend against Clemson. THAT is the really bad news out of this info.

It is, of course, all speculation on my part (this *is* the internet after all), but that worries me.
 
gtrower

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What’s the precedent for winning the Coastal being equivalent to hosting? If we stumble to 16-14 and the rest of the Coastal stumbles then we probably won’t host despite winning it. If we finish 19-11 and Miami goes on a year to pass us then we both probably host.
 
GTNavyNuke

GTNavyNuke

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65Jacket said:
Winning in the ACC is more important than beating UGAG.
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They are both very important. Do you love your father or mother more?

This is a helpful game from RPI point of view, +47 if we win and -16 if we lose. ugag is 230 points ahead at #3. If we win, we could move from #11 to #10 rpi.

What is far more important is the narrative. We take the series from the *best* SEC team and sweep Auburn, that will go a long ways in building our resume. Our resume is largely built given who we have left. So we probably need to win every series, including ugag, to get a Super Regional hosting. Lose any any series and we probably get a regional hosting. Given our depth of pitching, this is going to be a formidable tournament team.
 

GTJon

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MWBATL said:
This tells me that Hurter is hurting. And that Hall expects he will need Willingham this coming weekend against Clemson. THAT is the really bad news out of this info.
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Possibly, however, even before Hurter pitched Sunday, I was already thinking Roedig might pitch against Uga. They beat up Willingham pretty bad just 2 weeks ago and have seen him twice now. Roedig would be a new pitcher to them. Also, in the Auburn game last week, Roedig helped clean up and seemed to be more effective than Willingham who started. Seemed to me like a good time to show someone different in mid-week.
 
FredJacket

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gtrower said:
What’s the precedent for winning the Coastal being equivalent to hosting? If we stumble to 16-14 and the rest of the Coastal stumbles then we probably won’t host despite winning it. If we finish 19-11 and Miami goes on a year to pass us then we both probably host.
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Looking at previous 5 seasons, both ACC division champions have hosted every year. I see this as pretty much a lock. If you win the Coastal... you will host. Also..btw, if you win the ACC Tourney from the 2nd tier (Seeds 4-8), you'll host (see FSU the last 2 years)...this should not really apply to Ga Tech in 2019 (we should be considered top tier...for my purposes here)

Here are the ACC teams that hosted each of the those years:

2018: UNC, Clemson, NC State, FSU
2017: UNC, Clemson, Louisville, FSU, WF
2016: FSU, NC State, Louisville, Clemson, UVA, Miami
2015: Louisville, FSU, Miami
2014: FSU, Louisville, Miami, UVA

I'd expect 3-4 ACC hosts this year (below the average)... the ACC's Conf RPI is "down" to #4 right now behind the SEC, Big12, & Pac12.

To Host? I agree with others. Hosting is ours to "lose" right now. Win the Coastal and you host. Other paths (imo)... accomplish just 2 of the following and you host:
1) Beat UGA tonight
2) Finishing 1 game behind what would be a 'hot' UNC team (20-10 ACC record) in Coastal. Ga Tech at 19-11 in this scenario.
3) Reaching the ACC Championship game (or "maybe" just winning our pool... but that may depend more on other teams' resumes)

To be a top 8 national seed in line to host a Super Regional, accomplish 2 of these:
1) Beat UGA tonight
2) Win Coastal
3) Reach ACC Championship game
OR
Another pretty straight-forward path for Ga Tech (given their current position) to be a top 8 national seed is to WIN ACC Tournament...not necessarily a slam dunk; but assuming all other factors are sort of "normal" around them.
 
gtrower

gtrower

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Appreciate the thought and research you’ve put in. Don’t disagree that if we win the Coastal we’ll probably host. I just don’t think the act of “winning the Coastal” has any bearing on the seeds/hosts whatsoever. It’s just that the division is traditionally strong so the winner is usually a pretty good club. If we finish 3-6 to close out at 16-14 then we could still win the Coastal and not host.

I don’t think it matters much at this point what those around us are doing anymore. It would be nice to get a top seed in the ACCT for sure. But we’ve got 14 RS games left and it’s probably one of the weaker SOSs remaining for top level teams. Id guesstimate that we need around 10-4 to maintain our current national standing heading into the ACCT. 9-5 or worse and we’d get nervous about hosting. 11-3 or better and we’re squarely in the convo for a seed.

I just don’t think it matters much what Miami/UNC are doing at this point relative to our NCAAT aspirations.
 
FredJacket

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gtrower said:
Appreciate the thought and research you’ve put in. Don’t disagree that if we win the Coastal we’ll probably host. I just don’t think the act of “winning the Coastal” has any bearing on the seeds/hosts whatsoever. It’s just that the division is traditionally strong so the winner is usually a pretty good club. If we finish 3-6 to close out at 16-14 then we could still win the Coastal and not host.

I don’t think it matters much at this point what those around us are doing anymore. It would be nice to get a top seed in the ACCT for sure. But we’ve got 14 RS games left and it’s probably one of the weaker SOSs remaining for top level teams. Id guesstimate that we need around 10-4 to maintain our current national standing heading into the ACCT. 9-5 or worse and we’d get nervous about hosting. 11-3 or better and we’re squarely in the convo for a seed.

I just don’t think it matters much what Miami/UNC are doing at this point relative to our NCAAT aspirations.
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I'd be shocked if Coastal winner is 16-14. You are correct if that happens.... uncharted territory from a NCAA tournament placement perspective. I am assuming Coastal champ is 18-12 minimum.
 

bensaysitathome

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gtrower

gtrower

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bensaysitathome said:
Does anyone know if they avoid regular season rematches in regionals? I know they won't put teams from the same conference together, but we've already played Auburn.
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They love sticking regionally-based teams together to cut down on travel costs and increase attendance. I think they do try to avoid conference matchups in the first round.
 
Southpawmac

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Yeah count me as not a fan of having Auburn in our Regional. It's hard to continuously beat good teams. We are already 2-0 against them, so having to potentially go 4-0 against them isn't ideal.
 
FredJacket

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Southpawmac said:
Yeah count me as not a fan of having Auburn in our Regional. It's hard to continuously beat good teams. We are already 2-0 against them, so having to potentially go 4-0 against them isn't ideal.
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Technically, we could advance without having to beat them 2 times OR we could even lose to them & advance as well.

Also... these projections will change. In fact, the D1Baseball projections we're referencing do not take into account last night's win over UGA. On the other hand, we should probably expect a quality SEC team as a #2 seed should GT host. Just works out that way geographically.
 
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