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There were millions of reasons. For comparison, CPJ's salary was about half that.

What I should say more simply is that FEI is fundamentally a Points per Drive analysis. The output domain being smooth per se is not interesting, it needs to be paired with costs. More discrete "levels" or "production functions" could be in the domain of costs. A revenue per day output for a...

You shouldn't be surprised when the result conforms to the domain of analysis. A different system, the Elo ranking system is built on an assumption of normally distributed skill, so when the results come out looking pretty normally distributed it's not interesting to say "chess skill looks...

Here's some more evidence that he might be dropping F-Bombs because we subbed wrong. Here is the video queued up to 32:34, the third down previous to the play in question. On this third down UVA also uses 10 personnel and I think we have 6 DBs on the field but I can't read the numbers for...

It looks like he's pissed that we did not get into the right personnel group to match UVA's substitution. UVA substituted from 21 personnel to 10 personnel and it looks like we subbed on our D-Line but we didn't bring in any additional DBs. Perhaps we have multiple Linebackers on the field who...

Going for Two is the correct call. It's a very rare situation where you are up by 4 points, an extra-point gives you a 5 point lead, and a two-point-conversion gives you a 6 point lead. Read my post here about how many possessions a lead is worth. Four, five, or six points are all .5...

Thanks again Ibeeballin! I'm only on the first drive and already having a good time. I was bantering at the TV when Miami completed that 2x2 Switch route on 3rd and 12, I was like "Guys, that is our play. That's our favorite pass play for the last ten years, don't tell me you've never seen...

@ilovetheoption - What was your take on last year's bowl game vs. Navy? I've already written about it multiple times here. On Offense Navy was very successful with the Zone Option series, so perhaps Oliver is the stronger start. The lack of points scored by UVA was more about them making big...

Around and around the causality goes, where it stops nobody knows... Turnover Margin: 2017: -0.45/g -> 2018: +0.56/g

I was frustrated with the Louisville game because with clock management we let Louisville get an extra possession in the first half and they used it to score a FG.

Because it is higher variance. We are forcing turnovers at double the rate. We are defensing passes at twice the rate. We are hurrying the quarterback more. We are forcing slightly more sacks. When our opponents get into the red zone this year they are more likely to score a touchdown than...

There's been a lot of discussion in the post-game thread on CPJ's decision to go for it rather than kick the field goal at the end of the first half. On the way into the locker room he admitted he made a bad call and should have kicked it, but he was being really aggressive. Here I am going to...

First Touchdown vs. Louisville

Drive One: 1. From the angle we have, the first play looks like it could be either a Run and Shoot concept called "Go" or "Slide". Can't be sure what protection is called, but the simplest one would be slide protecting away from the running back and away from the routes. It looks like too...

Because it's fine? You know they changed the redshirt rules and he can still redshirt?

No choice. Defense ripped Oliver's helmet off.

I was in the upper deck at the 2017 Military Bowl featuring Navy vs. Virginia, the line was UVA -2.5. UVA ran the opening kickoff back for a touchdown and their players were ecstatic. UVA was not unfamiliar with CPJ's offense, they beat us 40-36 that year. Navy responded to the kickoff return...

You are not crazy Ibeeballin, but I'm seeing it around College Football and I've seen it a couple times in the NFL too: the Run-Pass-Option is getting linemen as much as five yards downfield when the ball is caught. Someone is uncovered and zone blocks to the left, getting them up into the...

This is Choice from the Run and Shoot offense and the Choice Route has been a staple of our offense since Joshua Nesbitt was throwing to Demaryius Thomas. Sometimes, we run this exact play. Often, the A-Back does not run the drag route but instead pass protects. More often, the A-Back is part...

That's impressive.