I tell you what we do know about a decade from now…
B12 will be making almost 2x as much per school vs. ACC off their TV contract (31.7mil vs. 17mil). And that ACC deal runs through 2036. That’s why B12 is a more attractive conference to all these guys.
It may be time to call germane on this though.
This isn't even remotely accurate. You are comparing apples to oranges.
You have to look at the actual payouts to see what is happening.
Looking at the financial documents for each conference for the 2022-2023 financial year, ACC members received an average payout of $44.8M last year, with a range from $43.3 to $46.9M.
The B12 received an avg payout of $44.2M with a range of $43.8 to $48.2M.
Every financial analysis i've seen of conferences suggest that the ACC will continue to make more money than the B12 at an increasing rate, while falling farther behind the SEC and B10.
FWIW, the SEC payed out $51M to each school. So while the payout difference is going to get very large over the next 7-8 years, in the last financial year SEC schools received a little more than $6M more than ACC schools. B1G schools other Rutgers and MD received $60.5M while those 2 got $58.8M. OR and WA will receive $30M from the B1G their first year with a $1M increase each year until the next TV contracts in 2030, when all B1G schools will be given the same amount based on the new contract.
The B12 number quoted is the avg payout for the life of the contract, which means they are getting significantly less than that right now. The ACC number quoted is the number from the first year of the ACC's contract with ESPN and I believe just includes the tier 1 rights.
Keep in mind that the ACC has a very lucrative network while the B12 does not. ACC members received almost $10M per school for the ACC network (which also means that it made ESPN roughly $150M in profit as it is a 50/50 joint venture after expenses are paid) and that value is expected to increase.
At the end of the day it is not the media contracts that are driving the differences in revenues for the schools - it is the revenue the schools raise outside of those media contracts. There are a handful of B1G and SEC schools that are making over $200M in revenue. That is not primarily due to media contracts. That is due to them having large fanbases that they are able to raise alot more money from. Changing conferences is not going to change that basic issue. That is simply a larger school vs smaller school issue. Ohio St raises over $100M revenue from its home football games. That is almost as much as GT's entire AA budget.