Toughest ACC non-conference schedule: GT of course

[Vespidae]

At the risk of being repetitive, describing 7-5 as “attainable” (stretch goal) just reinforces my point about avoiding tough scheduling as we rebuild. We’ve fired coaches for going 7-5 routinely.

7-5 may be more common than not.

 

[roadkill]

CPJ quipped that GT was more like a service academy than a typical P5 program. He also said that Tech was pretty much a 7-5 team.

If you look at our last 20 years, we have a wpt of 0.529. You could argue that under Collins, those years are outliers, and that's fine. If so, we can use 0.57. The point is, Tech is pretty much a 7 win program.

The question is, will it ever be anything better than that? If you start with the assumption of losing to Clemson, FSU and UGA every year ... you have to pretty much run the table to do better than 7 wins. It might happen occasionally but ... the big difference is Tech doesn't have the ability to recruit, hold onto and develop players .... teams are now using the portal and you have to assemble a new team every year.

If you can beat the bottom of the conference and the OOC opponents, you might be 6-6. An occasional upset gets you to 7-5 and maybe a bowl. Given the new reality of CFB, I would be delighted if we could win 7 a year for the next few years and somewhat earn our reputation back.

I’m confused (fairly common these days, unfortunately). You’re saying 7-5 is pretty much our ceiling most years. But you also stated how we should schedule the tough teams, and implied we should aspire to be like Notre Dame (play anyone, anywhere). So are you happy with 6-6 or 7-5, as long as we lose to good teams?

 

[forensicbuzz]

Out of 131 teams, you’re quibbling over being ranked 113 vs 121?

The fact is, we weren't very good, and don't yet know how we're going to be this year. We have to at least best weak sisters in our own conference. If we can’t beat Boston College and UVA, I don’t know what to tell you.

Fixed it for you (emphasis mine)

Yet we beat UNC, Pitt, VT, and Duke (top 3 in our division). I agree with @yeti92 in that there are a bunch of other also-rans that honestly had worse showings but were ranked higher.

In the end, if we play better and win decently this year, we'll be thought of as better and have something to build on. I think most of us are cautiously optimistic that we'll not only show better (record), but we'll perform better (metrics), which should raise our status with some of the talking heads.

 

[Vespidae]

I’m confused (fairly common these days, unfortunately). You’re saying 7-5 is pretty much our ceiling most years. But you also stated how we should schedule the tough teams, and implied we should aspire to be like Notre Dame (play anyone, anywhere). So are you happy with 6-6 or 7-5, as long as we lose to good teams?

I didn't say replace Bowling Green with Alabama.

We are already in a weak conference. Boston College and UVA are among the weakest teams in the country. You are going to have to play somebody reasonably good if you are to have any reputation at all. There's nothing wrong with playing low end SEC teams (Vandy, MS State) or any midling teams. UGA and Clemson are enough for star power. But you can't play Northwestern every game.

 

[forensicbuzz]

7-5 may be more common than not.

To me, this is what an average P5 team should achieve. Anything below this is subpar, above this is moving in the right direction.

 

[forensicbuzz]

I didn't say replace Bowling Green with Alabama.

We are already in a weak conference. Boston College and UVA are among the weakest teams in the country. You are going to have to play somebody reasonably good if you are to have any reputation at all. There's nothing wrong with playing low end SEC teams (Vandy, MS State) or any midling teams. UGA and Clemson are enough for star power. But you can't play Northwestern every game.

How does BC and UVa stack up to Missouri, MS State, and Vandy? I'd say they're comparable.

Edit: This comment is gut-feel, based on no reliable data.

 

[Vespidae]

How does BC and UVa stack up to Missouri, MS State, and Vandy? I'd say they're comparable.

Edit: This comment is gut-feel, based on no reliable data.

BC and UVA are not OOC.

 

[Root4GT]

How does BC and UVa stack up to Missouri, MS State, and Vandy? I'd say they're comparable.

Edit: This comment is gut-feel, based on no reliable data.

Those teams are generally year to year teams that have some good years/teams and some bad years/teams. Generally they are in the 7-5 to 5-7 range. When they have very good QBs, and both have recently, they are difficult. UVA was a disaster last year after being pretty good under Bronco. Will be interesting to see how patient the AD is.

 

[roadkill]

To me, this is what an average P5 team should achieve. Anything below this is subpar, above this is moving in the right direction.

The catch is, as we strive to move up to "average", we are playing a schedule significantly tougher than average. And I disagree that we will get credit points for losing to UGA, Clemson, Notre Dame, and an ascendant FSU next year.

 

[takethepoints]

When we scheduled Ole Miss, we were better and they weren’t as good. They improved, and we went downhill. Hopefully, we get better now.

Ws there any doubt that Ole Miss would improve? And that their advantages in recruiting probably meant that they would be a tough out for most of the coming years? I'm an Ole Miss fan, right behind Tech and Mississippi State. I knew they'd get better; it was only a matter of finding the right coach. If I knew it then Stansbury should have known it too. And not scheduled them.

Why, oh, why does Tech keep doing this? As I've also said over and over and over and over and over and over, 10 years from now nobody will be interested in anything but our win/loss record. And, I might add, that's what the recruits will be looking at as well.

 

[roadkill]

I didn't say replace Bowling Green with Alabama.

We are already in a weak conference. Boston College and UVA are among the weakest teams in the country. You are going to have to play somebody reasonably good if you are to have any reputation at all. There's nothing wrong with playing low end SEC teams (Vandy, MS State) or any midling teams. UGA and Clemson are enough for star power. But you can't play Northwestern every game.

Again, will you be happy with 6-6 and 7-5 seasons, or would you rather us have a better W/L record, even if it is accomplished by replacing a probable loss with a probable win? As you stated, we have Clemson and UGA for star power, and next year we will have 3-4 of those.

 

[CEB]

At the risk of being repetitive, describing 7-5 as “attainable” (stretch goal) just reinforces my point about avoiding tough scheduling as we rebuild. We’ve fired coaches for going 7-5 routinely.

Agree... and disagree.

We've fired coaches for 7-5... true. Was he really fired for 7-5 or was he fired because 7 wins and a loss to UGA started to feel more like a ceiling? I think it was the latter. If we can be a "7-5" team most years (with gusts up to 8, 9 or even 10 wins occasionally...hopefully), that's improvement. I don't think 7-5 is a stretch goal, but its a next (necessary) step. I feel like that needs to be our standard, not our goal.

I don't disagree with the premise regarding OOC, but I feel like 5-3 in conference is where we want to be. Four ACC wins and three OOC patsies is not the 7-5 "standard" in my mind.

As I posted a while ago, if we can start getting 6+ ACC wins, I'm all for ditching tough OOC P5 matchups. Nine regular season wins with an ACCCG upset puts you in the discussion for expanded playoff.

 

[billga99]

Agree... and conceding those four, we need to get to a point where we still feel 5-3 conference, 7-5 overall is attainable.

That said, next year is a real bear... in addition to those four being longshots, only one of them is a true road game, and it’s out of conference! That means that ACC teams we should be competitive with are on the road (NCST, Cuse, VT, Lville).
We really need to get better in a hurry!

and FSU in Dublin is a ACC home game for GT and Notre Dame at Mercedes. So FSU in 2 of the next 3 years is in Dublin and Tallahasee. How does that make any sense? Unless we are getting a big payout to play in Dublin, another mistake in scheduling.

 

[CEB]

and FSU in Dublin is a ACC home game for GT and Notre Dame at Mercedes. So FSU in 2 of the next 3 years is in Dublin and Tallahasee. How does that make any sense? Unless we are getting a big payout to play in Dublin, another mistake in scheduling.

RIGHT! It’s a “road” conference game for FSU... and the whiny little twits say the ACC is screwing THEM!

 

[takethepoints]

In the end, if we play better and win decently this year, we'll be thought of as better and have something to build on.

It's losing decently that I'm afraid of.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

To me, this argument has valid answers in both camps. Winning aids recruiting, but recruits also want to play in big games. We currently offer recruits the opportunity to play uga, Clemson, FSU, ND, and Miami, yet since we weren't winning routinely, they weren't buying in as well as we'd have liked. So in and of itself, big games against tough opponents isn't going to move the needle. If we were to schedule 3 cupcakes to go with uga on non-ND years, that would also likely hamper recruiting. IMO, you need a bit of both. Since we will (probably) always have uga, then on non-ND years schedule a P5, G5, and an FCS team. On ND years schedule a G5 and an FCS team.

Now the question becomes which P5 team? Vary it. Bring Vandy back again. Get Auburn in the building again. I'd love a rematch with Tennessee. Shoot for a home and home with Oregon, Purdue, or Iowa St.

 

[forensicbuzz]

BC and UVA are not OOC.

You said ACC was a weak conference and went on to say BC and UVa were among the weakest in the nation. Do you think MS State, Missouri, and Vandy are not among the weakest in the nation? As I said, I put them on par with each other. Illinois, NU, Rutgers, UM, Indiana, and Purdue are in the same boat. I'm assuming you're only talking P5 teams.

 

[roadkill]

Agree... and disagree.

We've fired coaches for 7-5... true. Was he really fired for 7-5 or was he fired because 7 wins and a loss to UGA started to feel more like a ceiling? I think it was the latter. If we can be a "7-5" team most years (with gusts up to 8, 9 or even 10 wins occasionally...hopefully), that's improvement. I don't think 7-5 is a stretch goal, but its a next (necessary) step. I feel like that needs to be our standard, not our goal.

I don't disagree with the premise regarding OOC, but I feel like 5-3 in conference is where we want to be. Four ACC wins and three OOC patsies is not the 7-5 "standard" in my mind.

As I posted a while ago, if we can start getting 6+ ACC wins, I'm all for ditching tough OOC P5 matchups. Nine regular season wins with an ACCCG upset puts you in the discussion for expanded playoff.

First, I’ve never suggested that 7-5 attained via 3 OOC patsies should be a standard. It can, however, be employed as part of a path to rebuilding.

Perhaps I misunderstood your earlier post regarding 7-5 as attainable. Or perhaps you’re moving the goalposts. Either way, I agree that getting back to seeing the type of win-loss records that we saw during CPJ’s tenure would be a massive improvement. Of course, if we did that, we would still have a fair share of fans (not me) grumbling about “accepting mediocrity”.

I don’t think we disagree on the ultimate goals for the team. But I see easier scheduling as a means to get there rather than a reward after we are good.

 

[g0lftime]

next year we have FSU, Clemson, Notre Dame and UGA on the schedule. My guess will all will be in Top 15.

Team should be better next year but that is a brutal schedule for a team trying to rebuild into a winning program. The line play on both sides of the ball is where we really need to improve.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

You said ACC was a weak conference and went on to say BC and UVa were among the weakest in the nation. Do you think MS State, Missouri, and Vandy are not among the weakest in the nation? As I said, I put them on par with each other. Illinois, NU, Rutgers, UM, Indiana, and Purdue are in the same boat. I'm assuming you're only talking P5 teams.

Per preseason FPI, MS ST is 16th, Mizzou is 38th, and Vandy, the lowest ranked SEC team, clocks in at 88, which is better than three ACC teams, including GT. 13 of the 14 SEC teams are ranked in the top 50, 46 being the lowest other than the obvious outlier in Vanderbilt. 25 P5 teams are ranked below the 13th ranked SEC team.

Rk	Team A	Rk	Team B	Rk	Team C	Rk	Team D	Rk	Team E	Rk	Team F	Rk	Team G	Rk	Team H	Rk	Team I
1	Georgia	16	Mississippi State	31	Oregon State	46	Arkansas	61	Duke	76	UTSA	91	San Jose State	106	Rutgers	121	Texas State
2	Alabama	17	Washington	32	Oklahoma State	47	James Madison	62	Western Kentucky	77	UAB	92	South Alabama	107	Western Michigan	122	Rice
3	Ohio State	18	Florida	33	Cincinnati	48	Fresno State	63	Troy	78	Ohio	93	Wyoming	108	Temple	123	UTEP
4	Michigan	19	Minnesota	34	Tulane	49	Memphis	64	Indiana	79	San Diego State	94	Coastal Carolina	109	Central Michigan	124	Bowling Green
5	LSU	20	Iowa	35	Texas Tech	50	Maryland	65	Louisiana	80	Buffalo	95	Boston College	110	Arkansas State	125	Charlotte
6	Tennessee	21	Wisconsin	36	Air Force	51	Purdue	66	Marshall	81	Arizona	96	Georgia Tech	111	Northern Illinois	126	Connecticut
7	Penn State	22	Florida State	37	Wake Forest	52	Michigan State	67	Nebraska	82	Northwestern	97	Georgia State	112	Nevada	127	New Mexico
8	Clemson	23	USC	38	Missouri	53	North Carolina	68	Army	83	Stanford	98	North Texas	113	UNLV	128	New Mexico State
9	Texas	24	Auburn	39	Washington State	54	NC State	69	Navy	84	Florida Atlantic	99	Utah State	114	South Florida	129	Akron
10	Utah	25	Ole Miss	40	Illinois	55	Appalachian State	70	Kansas	85	Toledo	100	Eastern Michigan	115	Louisiana Tech	130	Florida International
11	Kansas State	26	Texas A&M	41	South Carolina	56	SMU	71	Arizona State	86	Tulsa	101	Miami (OH)	116	Old Dominion	131	Sam Houston
12	Notre Dame	27	Iowa State	42	UCLA	57	BYU	72	California	87	Liberty	102	Southern Mississippi	117	Colorado	131	Jacksonville State
13	Oregon	28	Baylor	43	Boise State	58	Houston	73	Miami	88	Vanderbilt	103	Kent State	118	UL Monroe	133	Massachusetts
14	Oklahoma	29	UCF	44	Louisville	59	Syracuse	74	East Carolina	89	Virginia Tech	104	Middle Tennessee	119	Colorado State
15	TCU	30	Kentucky	45	Pittsburgh	60	West Virginia	75	Virginia	90	Georgia Southern	105	Ball State	120	Hawaii