Thoughts going into UVA week

[Eric]

DE Eli Harold is what I think of.

 

[Wrecking Ball]

I don't think it's much better. I'd agree it's better.

I also think seeing how a team/DC does against us in particular even in past years is a much better prediction of how well they will defend us than how they've done against other teams.

Finally, what about a convoluted zone blitzing scheme is good when we're running the option from the line of scrimmage either past where you've just blitzed or into the space you've just vacated?

You know, you coulda stopped at "I don't think" or said "I feel." Last year, UVA's defense was 99th in points allowed, this year it's 42. That's a quantum leap. It also held UCLA and it's all-everything offense to 28 and should have won them the game, but even still won the ACC a lot of respect for a quality loss. Geez, for a bunch of smart math people no one here seems to back up their feels with data.

 

[thwgjacket]

Tenuta: I think Tenuta is one of the actual bonafide defensive coordinators out there. Would've loved to have kept him here at GT. I always wonder what could've been had we kept him .... wow, what a thought. Think about a great defense going with our offense all these years.

UNC scored 28 on UVA. It has appeared to me that UNC has an offense to be reckoned with. We have a bad defense, but their offense made our defense look like air. Against other teams, I thought our defense had a chance, but against UNC, it wasn't a matter of having a chance, it was a matter of how many plays will it take. So, UNC scoring 28 against them, I believe, confirms both that UNC has a good offense and that UVA has a good defense.

Where Tenuta's defense excels is at stopping traditional offenses. He will shut down a power run game and give heavy, effective pressure against their play-action game. His MO is to stop what the offense is good at and if they're going to beat you, make them do it left handed (he preached this to us), and that is a good philosophy. As far as I can see, if he's got an achilles heal, it's the non-traditional offenses. His defenses are so geared to stop what most offenses do, that they will struggle to play a different kind of game. We've had good success against them the last 2 years. He had trouble with WVU in the gator bowl, and with Oregon. Now, most DC's have trouble with these (and our) offense, so that's not just a Tenuta problem. I think he will come up with some kind of good game plan against us. But, what our offense does is it turns Tenuta's philosophy against he defense. It dictates what the defense can do. The defense can't do what it's good at (which is blitz pressure, pressure, pressure, aggressive), it will have to beat us left handed, it will have to focus on assignments. But, I do believe his defense will be a bigger challenge than we've seen the last 2 weeks against UNC and Pitt. I think he will do everything he can to try to make JT have to beat us with his arm. He will take some chances as well to try to make things happen. I wouldn't be surprised to see their defense be as effective as a VT or Duke against us, though I think we're much better offensively now than we were against VT. Hopefully Synjyn continues to be a workhorse and not fumble.


Chance at a defensive revival: I remember feeling this way about our defense during Groh's last weeks. I remember when Kelly took over thinking that there was little chance we could get any better. I thought that there were too many personnel issues back then, just like I'm thinking now. I do think the big difference between then and now is the crazy attrition we've had on the DL, but I'm still wondering if there is any way we could see some semblance of a defensive revival over the last part of this year the way we saw it that year under Kelly. 33Jacket and others are adamant that the defense SHOULD be better. I have argued against that point, saying that there's no way you can expect better when you have those kinds of losses on the DL in the offseason. BUT, I was wrong back in '11 and I hope I'm wrong now. I still disagree with them that the source of our defensive ineptitude is Roof's head being up his rear, but I'm going to go ahead and change my mind and side with them that our defense CAN be better. I'm sure Roof is looking for answers, and I'm hoping he finds something this week; or at least before we get to Ugag. If he finds something, anything that can shore up our DL and/or create pressure, something that could just at least make the offense do something they don't want to have to do to beat us, we still have a chance at being a great team rather than just a great offense.

When Kelly took over, he changed us from a 3-4 to a 4-3 because it fit our personality better. I wouldn't mind seeing the inverse happen in this case and go to a 3-4 to minimize the impact of the DL, put your best 3 DL out there and get more athleticism on the field in the form of LB's and/or DB's in the back 8 (rather than back 7) and just send people from everywhere.

I'm curious to know why you think we score 17 more points against Clemson without Watson. He doesn't play Defense and Stoudt has only turned the ball over 4 times this year. I actually think we lose to UVA, beat NCSU, beat Clemson and then I think the UGA game will be a shoot-out.

 

[Lexjacket]

Our guys got to the Pitt quarterback dragging Pitt offensive linemen with them. It was as if 'holding penalties' were non-existing. The same thing happened in the Duke game and North Carolina game.

 

[Minawreck]

You know, you coulda stopped at "I don't think" or said "I feel." Last year, UVA's defense was 99th in points allowed, this year it's 42. That's a quantum leap. It also held UCLA and it's all-everything offense to 28 and should have won them the game, but even still won the ACC a lot of respect for a quality loss. Geez, for a bunch of smart math people no one here seems to back up their feels with data.

last year UVA in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency was 39th according to football outsiders this year they're 17th. They played some of the most prolific offenses in NCAA like Oregon, Clemson with Boyd and Watkins, GT, and Ball State.

They were 32nd in Defensive S&P.

They played 8 of the top 50 teams in terms of Offensive S&P ratings last season.

 

[Wrecking Ball]

@Northeast Stinger that's fair, but you also have to dig into those big games. Against Duke I believe we had 4/ turnovers and Duke converted them into 24/28 points, essentially breaking the game open. Against Clemson, just look at this drive chart:

http://espn.go.com/ncf/drivechart?gameId=232630059

we stopped them on at least half of their possessions and gave up a ton, and I mean a ton of bad field position. Also, it may be worth noting that the "back in the day defenses were expected to..." may not be accurate. UVA is currently 42 in the nation in scoring D, at 23 points a game. In 2002, we allowed 21 points a game and were 28th. Thing seem to be, over time almost the same (teams are scoring only about 6 more points a game and that's with a LOT more cupcakes on the schedule compared to then.)

 

[Minawreck]

I also don't suggest that my opinion that we have a good matchup with Tenuta's defensive schemes should be taken as a slight against Tenuta. I think he is a great college DC, where QB's and O-Lines aren't as stable.

 

[Wrecking Ball]

@Minawreck I stand corrected. I still think going from 39 to 17 is something, and UCLA may not be Oregon but they ain't Dudley Dogood Directional U either. BYU before losing Hill was on fire, and UNC is lethal. So, it's not that different. I bet they've played 4 teams in the top 50 (UCLA, BYU at the time, UNC, and Duke*) *for Duke running up the score against pathetic teams to get into top 50 for now.

And yeah, Tenuta does not do as well against spread offenses (but even still... it's not like UNC hasn't averaged 45 points a game against us lately either, is it... so it looks like spread offenses give everyone fits)

 

[Yaller Jacket]

I'm in agreement with Mina about Tenuta's schemes. Kinda like the stats for defense against the run don't equate to much when a team plays us, Tenuta's preferences are not all that applicable to our style. PJ has so many tools to work with this year, I like him in a chess match with Tenuta. I won't get into evaluating Tenuta's tenure here. But I will add one negative about him. He wasn't much for in game adjustments, IIRC. If it didn't work in the first half, his answer was usually to keep trying it anyway.

I like the idea of the three man front, if for no other reason than to give the offense another look. On one of the sack plays Gotsis was able to beat his man to the outside and get to the QB in no time. He looked every bit the rush end, at least on that play.

 

[Wrecking Ball]

Tenuta is going to leave his DBs on an island and I expect JeT's best passing day against a D1 school. If he's off then it could get dicey, but if he's his usual accuracy, Smelter will get game ball.

 

[vamosjackets]

Tenuta is going to leave his DBs on an island and I expect JeT's best passing day against a D1 school. If he's off then it could get dicey, but if he's his usual accuracy, Smelter will get game ball.

He might against our scheme, but normally, even if he's sending 6, the back guys are often playing zone. So, it isn't quite being on an island, to where you have to cover the guy whether he goes short or deep. Not sure what he will be calling against us though. I'm very interested to find out. I'm thinking he'll do his own version of blitzing the gaps and such ala Foster.

 

[vamosjackets]

I'm curious to know why you think we score 17 more points against Clemson without Watson. He doesn't play Defense and Stoudt has only turned the ball over 4 times this year. I actually think we lose to UVA, beat NCSU, beat Clemson and then I think the UGA game will be a shoot-out.

I don't understand the question (not trying to be a smart alec). Is there something you're referring to in my first post? If so, can you point that out?

 

[jeffgt14]

I don't understand the question (not trying to be a smart alec). Is there something you're referring to in my first post? If so, can you point that out?

I think he meant to reply to a different thread.

 

[thebull35]

Wasn't Tenuta at NC State not to long ago when we demolished them?

As Vamos just stated, he was the LB Coach. But he was also the LB Coach the year Russell Wilson went CRAZY. The offense wasn't particularly on point that day either.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

@Northeast Stinger that's fair, but you also have to dig into those big games. Against Duke I believe we had 4/ turnovers and Duke converted them into 24/28 points, essentially breaking the game open. Against Clemson, just look at this drive chart:

http://espn.go.com/ncf/drivechart?gameId=232630059

we stopped them on at least half of their possessions and gave up a ton, and I mean a ton of bad field position. Also, it may be worth noting that the "back in the day defenses were expected to..." may not be accurate. UVA is currently 42 in the nation in scoring D, at 23 points a game. In 2002, we allowed 21 points a game and were 28th. Thing seem to be, over time almost the same (teams are scoring only about 6 more points a game and that's with a LOT more cupcakes on the schedule compared to then.)

Great informaton! So I looked at a few of the drive charts from the Clemson game and I share the following, not to be argumentative, but to point out that if I have an impression of Tenuta defenses it is at least based on the "appearance" of what I was referring to when I said "boom or bust."

So, for instance, Clemson's first four scores happened like this:

On a 4th and 3 Tech's defense had a ten yard penalty keeping the drive alive for a field goal.
Clemson's next drive took 10 seconds as Tech gave up several big plays and Clemson covered 57 yards in 3 plays for a touchdown.
Clemson's next drive took 2 minutes with 5 plays covering 70 yards and more big plays for a touchdown.
Clemson's next drive took 12 seconds and covered 55 yards in 3 plays for a touchdown.

Please understand, I am seriously considering that I may have misjudged Tenuta but I also see just from looking at this one drive chart that you offered that there is a reason why I perceived his defenses as ones that seem to give up a lot of big plays in critical moments. More I could say but I will leave it at that.

 

[vamosjackets]

Great informaton! So I looked at a few of the drive charts from the Clemson game and I share the following, not to be argumentative, but to point out that if I have an impression of Tenuta defenses it is at least based on the "appearance" of what I was referring to when I said "boom or bust."

So, for instance, Clemson's first four scores happened like this:

On a 4th and 3 Tech's defense had a ten yard penalty keeping the drive alive for a field goal.
Clemson's next drive took 10 seconds as Tech gave up several big plays and Clemson covered 57 yards in 3 plays for a touchdown.
Clemson's next drive took 2 minutes with 5 plays covering 70 yards and more big plays for a touchdown.
Clemson's next drive took 12 seconds and covered 55 yards in 3 plays for a touchdown.

Please understand, I am seriously considering that I may have misjudged Tenuta but I also see just from looking at this one drive chart that you offered that there is a reason why I perceived his defenses as ones that seem to give up a lot of big plays in critical moments. More I could say but I will leave it at that.

You've got to judge a guy's whole body of work. If you just looked at GT/CPJ's game against VT last year, you'd say, "that offense sucks!", but then you'd be looking at one of the worst games that offense has ever had and leaving out all of the other relevant data. Also, if you looked at Bud Foster's (arguably the best DC in the game) game against GT in 2006, you'd also think his defense sucks. Every unit has an off day, and sometimes it's more a product of the other team you're playing being on fire, as Clemson was that day at their place on a Thursday night, etc. So, it's always better to look at a whole data set rather than to make decisions based on the biggest outliers.

 

[alaguy]

I don't know to be true but always Tenuta had rep for not wanting to recruit.That could be factor also in evalustions.
But his defs are dangerous if not always effective.This will a good test for him.

 

[Northeast Stinger]

You've got to judge a guy's whole body of work. If you just looked at GT/CPJ's game against VT last year, you'd say, "that offense sucks!", but then you'd be looking at one of the worst games that offense has ever had and leaving out all of the other relevant data. Also, if you looked at Bud Foster's (arguably the best DC in the game) game against GT in 2006, you'd also think his defense sucks. Every unit has an off day, and sometimes it's more a product of the other team you're playing being on fire, as Clemson was that day at their place on a Thursday night, etc. So, it's always better to look at a whole data set rather than to make decisions based on the biggest outliers.

Of course. That is why anecdotal evidence should never be the last word. I just have strong impressions, not research. I remember watching the West Virginia Game with my nephew and he was impressed that Tech was playing so well on offense and looked like they were going to roll over West Virginia. I said that I was not convinced and expected Tech to lose because our defense had a habit of giving up big plays both during important downs and also in important games. Tech lost the game. I just as easily could have been wrong and Tech could have won but the fact that I already had an impression of the defense encouraged me to make a prediction which ended up being true which further reinforced my perception. That's how perceptions are formed.

 

[Wrecking Ball]

@Northeast Stinger that same WV squad beat UGA the previous year 38-35, and UGA was loaded (LOADED):

3 DEs that were or would shortly become All-SEC or All-American; 2 future NFL DTs; 5 current or future all-SEC or better 'backers; 5 current or future all-SEC or better DBs including 3 NFL guys.

 

[Yoda]

I'd take Tenuta all day long, but he and PJ would kill each other.