GoldZ
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Yeah, the suspended voluntary workouts is telling.
The ACC will delay the start of competition for all fall sports until at least Sept. 1
- Thread starter GTFLETCH
- Start date
Yeah, the suspended voluntary workouts is telling.
GoldZ
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Seriously? If it's all about individual schools having the power, why did we tolerate probation for a shirt or 2? Why did ugag tolerate getting ***** slapped for pretending to educate football players when Jan Kemp opened a can of whup *** on em? fsu, unc, osu, tex a&m, um, usc, etc. etc. etc. Are u suggesting they all just simultaneously woke?
But why? Even with the uptick in cases since the first week of June (after the start of the protests and Memorial Day) we are still seeing a plateau (at worst and decline at best) of deaths. Hospitals are NOT overwhelmed. The ones in Houston that are full, that's normal because they are still doing elective surgeries. Just because a hospital is near capacity doesn't mean they are full of Covid folks. A hospital makes approx $0 (may math may be wrong) on an empty room!
https://www.khou.com/article/news/h...read/285-aad0788d-256e-4454-8e3f-87f9c7956680 (not the original source but at 97% cap and normal is 70%, only 27% are covid related and not necessarily long term)
The state of Georgia reported death rate has fallen a full % point in a month. That's massive!! And even the mayor of Miami (Fl) say that the actual number of cases in Florida vs the positive cases may be an increase by a factor of 10!! Which would further push down the death rate.
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report
The reason for the lockdown, think back now, was to make sure the hospitals were not overwhelmed and they could get supplies. Mission accomplished! There is no need to continue to restrict gatherings or shut down business. We gave an inch and they took a mile.
And if you think that only conference games will be played, that make the 7 independent teams (including ND) SOL. You think they will just roll over and let their entire sports department suffer? Nah.
A close buddy of mine had it. He's obese. About 2 days of mild flu symptoms is all he had. Jimmie Johnson is already back with NASCAR. https://outkick.com/jimmie-johnsons-quick-return-from-coronavirus-is-a-good-omen-for-sports/
If, I don't have crystal ball, the next 2 weeks continue as the past 6 have, we will have a season with crowds. With a falling death rate (don't forget the concentration of deaths in a certain age bracket and minuscule in others) and a rising infection rate, it will be on par with the seasonal flu.
https://coronavirusbellcurve.com/
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gtrower
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I don’t think the Ivy League shutting down has any real correlation to the decision for FBS teams. Much, much easier decision for them without the magnitude of $ on the line. I just can’t see the P5 teams not playing in some capacity. Mostly because I can’t see the SEC not playing. And any team/conference that bails while others play is gonna be hampered for years as a result of the relative losses of income / publicity / experience / transfers / commits.
WreckinGT
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The national numbers for deaths are starting to rise. Texas has set a record for deaths in a day due to COVID each of the last two days. Its naive to think that the recent surges in cases aren't going to lead to increased death totals. There is always a lag period in between.
Techster
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Let's hope this is a statistically bump/anomaly. I posted the below in the Covid thread:
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There's a hospital in North Houston with 117 total beds. 80 are COVID-19 patients. The hospital is considering becoming a COVID only hospital.
jacket_fan
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Out of all the reported student athletes across the country that have reported positive, are any of the kids having serious health issues? I have not seen any reports of bad outcomes yet.
What about the coaches and supporting staff? I would think it would be impossible to keep them covid free.
My logic is that if the SAs and staff remain intact without news worthy bad outcomes, it would bode well for games. Any bad outcomes would be amplified by the press. And used to sink the season.
What about the coaches and supporting staff? I would think it would be impossible to keep them covid free.
My logic is that if the SAs and staff remain intact without news worthy bad outcomes, it would bode well for games. Any bad outcomes would be amplified by the press. And used to sink the season.
GTFLETCH
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The ACC will delay the start of competition for all fall sports until at least Sept. 1, the league announced Thursday. The move, which follows a similar decision by the Patriot League, will affect several sports, including soccer and field hockey, but not football.
Link
https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/29434331/acc-delay-all-fall-sports-least-sept-1
Link
https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/29434331/acc-delay-all-fall-sports-least-sept-1
SteamWhistle
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With the decision from ACC to Stop Olympic sports until Sept. 1st it’s going to help the image for football returning. It seems the reports of Student-Athletes testing positive the last few weeks is always automatically associated with Football players. This will help stop what could be a false narrative.
jacketup
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Be careful with how numbers are reported. Most states are reporting hospitalizations WITH Covid 19. CDC reports hospitalizations ATTRIBUTABLE to Covid 19. The resulting stats are very different.
stech81
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This should tell anyone the Sept 1 date was to get in football. None of the ACC , SEC, and the 2 Big ( 12 and 10) are thinking of not playing football. Number of fans unknown but they will play to get the T.V. money.
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Not football related, but I'm sitting over here in angst just knowing my classes will be remote/online this fall..... Not sure how this is gonna work for me considering I'm a STEM major trying to complete my upper level Biology courses.... should've done this bs 10 years ago.
Agreed, but the death to infection ration is falling. And it's not like the deaths are skyrocketing. Can't say nation wide rise and give a local reason fyi.
Like I said, in 2 weeks we will know. That would be 8 weeks since the Memorial Day/Protest uptick in infections, and we will see what the deaths are.
If there were any hospitalizations or, God forbid, death of an SA, it would be national news everywhere. Very telling statement that all those kids in Clempson who tested positive, no hospitals or deaths. That just leads me to believe that a season will start. on time.
I can only see the G5 and cross classification games being canceled. No UCF or GW game for us but a 10 game season with fans in stands is my opinion.
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First let's talk about the death rate - and I assume what you really mean is the mortality rate. The Gu model currently estimates the mortality rate at 0.3%. That's good as that is down from the previous 0.5%. But, if your cases are increasing then that eventually overwhelms the lower mortality rate. Given those numbers once your case rate increases by 2/3 or more then deaths start increasing again. That is what we are seeing on a national level this week and have been seeing in multiple areas of the country for about 10 days.
Deaths nationally bottomed out last week with a 7 day avg of 527-530 from Tues-Fri. As of yesterday the 7 day avg has increased to 553. Basically, about 160 more people died in the most recent 7 days than the 7 days prior to that.
So if cases (spread of the disesase) continue to rise then the number of deaths will start to increase (which is exactly what a couple of the models have been projecting - that deaths would flatten out at the beginning of July and then start to increase).
Deaths in the SE and SW have been on an increase for more than a week now. The 7 day avg death rate in SE (FL, GA, AL, MS, LA, SC, NC, TN) has increased 12.6% in the last 7 days. 7 day avg deaths in the SW (TX, NM, Utah, AZ, CA) have increased 12.1% in the last 7 days and 24.6% in the last 9 days.
Worse are the cases and hospitalizations. In the SE hospitalizations due to COVID have increased 37.8% in the last week (note that excludes FL since they don't report COVID hospitalizations). in the SW it is 25.8% increase in the last 7 days.
One model suggests the current R for the SW is now closer to 1.2-1.3 instead of 1.3-1.4, but that is still very bad. It means it is still increasing, just at a lower rate. As long as the R factor is above 1 this is going to get worse.
Nationally cases have risen 158% since June 12th while testing has risen 37%. So the vast majority of the increase is due to spread of the disease not increased testing.
(that's why the positive test rate is increasing). On a national level the positive test % has risen to 8.1%, the highest since May 10th and it is increasing while back then it was decreasing. Under 5% is when it is considered safe to open up. 5-10% is generally considered to be hold in place, over 10% and you are recommended to go more restrictive.
The article you posted from TX is old and out of date.
Texas Gov Abbot banned elective surgeries in the 4 largest TX counties on June 25th. So hospitalization numbers are not due to elective surgeries.
Arizona hospitals have also greatly reduced any elective surgeries.
Just because your buddy had a mild case doesn't mean that is the normal experience. My cul-de-sac neighbor who is 25 was in the hospital for 3 days and home for 14. One of my wife's cousins needed 3 weeks to get over it.
Be careful when interpreting the bell curve chart. Just because we have had 2 days at over 60K cases is not a good thing. You also have to wait longer to see if that continues. A plateau at that level would be awful. In terms of time series you want to look at multi-day averages (preferrably 7) as that smoothes out the natural seasonality in the daily reporting. The 7 day avg cases for the US has increased every day since June 9th. On the bell curve site that black line is the line you want to pay attention to. Keep in mind the Tuesday # was an unnaturally high number as the country was playing catchup in reporting due to the Holiday weekend. So if you had normal weekend reporting you would have seen more of a line instead of 2 numbers at the same level given the false impression of a plateau. We will need a good week or so to see if we are flattening or not.
As long as positive test rates are increasing the problem is getting worse. That means as you get further from the most likely to get tests you are finding more cases, not less - which means the spread is greater than you realize so getting it under control is much more difficult.
The infected mortality rate with the 10X increase in cases is the 0.3-0.5% (actual reported deaths / estimated total infections). The confirmed mortality rate is between 4.4-5% right now (actual reported deaths / actual reported cases). Take that 4.4-5% number and divide by 10-12 for the cases we are not finding and that is where you get the 0.3-0.5%. So don't confuse the two. It's not 0.3% and then divide that by 10, the 0.3% is after you divide by 10. Also keep in mind that actual deaths are considered by data scientists to be undercounted so an estimated death number would be higher than the actual death number.
I recommend watching this video from Austin - it puts things in perspective where we are today.
When the 7 day avg case rates (particularly the positive test %) and hospitalization rates start to decline you will know we are then making headway. Until then things are getting worse, not better.
if you are interested in a really good tracking site, this is the best one I have found. Data comes from the COVID Tracking Project.
https://public.tableau.com/profile/ckelly2528#!/vizhome/COVIDDashboard-Public/Introduction
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Keep in mind that not every state is requiring universities to report positive COVID cases. also, due to HIPAA it is unlikely any schools will report wether anyone had to go to the hospital - that is not in their best interest right now.
Notice how vague colleges have already gotten in reporting. Most are not reporting what sports the tests are in if they report at all.
That is one of the issues that came up in the Congressional hearing last week - that there is no agreed upon standards for reporting by the universities - it is up to the universities and the states to decide that right now. That creates a situation where it is in the schools interest not to report numbers or severity from a competitive advantage standpoint.
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One other thing to keep in mind. It won't be the number of deaths that make this decision (unless they skyrocket out of control which I don't expect), it will be the number of cases and hospitalizations.
If cases and hospitalizations are still increasing in 3 weeks then I think college football will be in trouble. Note the decision makers do not talk about deaths in their decision making, they talk about cases and hospitalizations.
Three weeks ago I was more than 95% certain we would have college football, today I am probably at roughly 2/3. We'll see where we are in 3 weeks. I have little belief we will have many if any fans in the stands. Just too many cases right now for that to happen.
It will also be interesting to watch the next 3 weeks due to human behavior. Clearly things were going bad and then the last week or so of June I think it sunk in that things had turned the wrong way. So if people started modifying behavior that should show up roughly 2-3 weeks later. So it wouldn't surprise me to see numbers plateau by around the 20th or so. But then we had July 4th weekend and there is a real possibility that that event could cause a plateau and then a new spike off that plateau at the end of July or early August. So do we have modified behavior for 10 days or so followed by a long weekend with poor behavior.
Just a hypothesis to watch.
If cases and hospitalizations are still increasing in 3 weeks then I think college football will be in trouble. Note the decision makers do not talk about deaths in their decision making, they talk about cases and hospitalizations.
Three weeks ago I was more than 95% certain we would have college football, today I am probably at roughly 2/3. We'll see where we are in 3 weeks. I have little belief we will have many if any fans in the stands. Just too many cases right now for that to happen.
It will also be interesting to watch the next 3 weeks due to human behavior. Clearly things were going bad and then the last week or so of June I think it sunk in that things had turned the wrong way. So if people started modifying behavior that should show up roughly 2-3 weeks later. So it wouldn't surprise me to see numbers plateau by around the 20th or so. But then we had July 4th weekend and there is a real possibility that that event could cause a plateau and then a new spike off that plateau at the end of July or early August. So do we have modified behavior for 10 days or so followed by a long weekend with poor behavior.
Just a hypothesis to watch.
JacketOff
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Uh-oh. Looks like the ACC is starting to flex some of that “non-existent” power some on another thread said they didn’t have. The fact that they specifically mentioned it wouldn’t affect football, yet, means that they definitely have a say over whether or not their member schools will participate in football this year. They’ve kept them from practicing, why one earth would they be unable to keep them from playing?
Heisman's Ghost
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Maybe that is why the Ivy League announced this morning that there will be NO fall sports of any kind this year.
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ACC postpones all Olympic fall sports to after Sep 1.
https://www.cbssports.com/general/n...in-fall-olympic-sports-until-at-least-sept-1/
MLS loses its second team from its restart (Nashville)
https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/07/09/nashville-sc-out-mls-back-tournament-coronavirus-tests
https://www.cbssports.com/general/n...in-fall-olympic-sports-until-at-least-sept-1/
MLS loses its second team from its restart (Nashville)
https://www.si.com/soccer/2020/07/09/nashville-sc-out-mls-back-tournament-coronavirus-tests