Ted Roof's job

[Augusta_Jacket]

The DFEI is one of the better ways to measure a defense. Just like the OFEI is a great way to measure offense.

I stipulated in my original reply that it is a useful stat. My contention is that you can't use it to compare us to schools that play weak schedules.

 

[IronJacket7]

The D showed up.. However; the D showing up one game a year, isn't good enough. Hate or not... It's a fact. Let's see how the D does against UVA and UGA, then we'll talk about it. Prior to the VT game, did the D really shut any team (that wasn't already inept) down? BC and Vandy are pretty inept, sorry. UNC, Pitt, Miami, Duke?? Did the D shut any of those teams down? If they did, let me know. I must have watched the wrong game. Especially that UNC game. Roof lovers weren't beating their chests after that game, were they? So, why do it after ONE game??? Again, let's see how well the D does in the next 3 games. Bowl, now included.

@Jmonty71 is a CTR hater.

 

[IronJacket7]

Just messing with ya @Jmonty71

 

[AE 87]

Let' just be clear about what happened.

We were without our starting center, starting qb, starting b-back, a starting a-back, and a starting tackle, and we were playing against a Bud Foster D. Nobody thought our O was going to be able to score much against them, including Ted. Going into the end of the first half, it looked like it was still a reasonable 2 score differential. Ted really thought that this was the game that he could pad his D stats while still sandbagging CPJ.

The whole second half we were giving away yards like DNC pizzas at college town polling places. We lost the second half 20-10, but it was too late.

 

[Jmonty71]

@Jmonty71 is a CTR hater.

No.... You're pretty much right. I don't like the the style he plays. I really don't. What I don't get is, CPJ (for the most part) gets above and beyond with the players on the offense. Face it, we have 3 star talent all over.. Yet, the offense scores on highly touted teams, usually. While the defense struggles against pretty much everyone. Does Roof get the max out of this player's potential? I don't think he does. Personally, he may be a really nice guy. As a DC, he just doesn't run it the way it needs to be. It's a difference of opinions. I like Tenuta's aggressiveness,. But, he seldom mixed things up also. It was turn on the blitz from play one... I swear... If Roof and Tenuta ever had a kid that would be the perfect DC. Just saying... Mixing those 2 styles into one D would be awesome.

 

[Jmonty71]

I stipulated in my original reply that it is a useful stat. My contention is that you can't use it to compare us to schools that play weak schedules.

I compared us to Kansas. You saying Kansas has an easier schedule? I could pluck a myriad of teams from the SEC and the Big Ten... I was more trying to stay away from the hyped conferences. I'm sorry.. I think Clemson and UNC have slam bam offenses. Heck, Pitt's offense isn't too shabby either. The Big Ten is full of stout defenses, so I really didn't go there. Not sure how much is great D vs. just above average offense.

As for schedule? GT's hasn't been a top tier SOS. I wouldn't call GA Southern, Mercer, BC and Vandy as highly ranked teams. As you even said in a previous posts. All teams have cream puff games. This is when I was trying to compare our defense to good teams vs. all teams we played.

I will say this.. I am happy...yes HAPPY that we all but shut VT down. Given, the last moments of the game was a bit nerve racking, going into prevent D... But, for the most part, we did great. Just as we did great against FSU. What I want to see, is that attacking style going into the UVA game. This read, wait and try to react thing, just does not work that well. We have to pressure, we have to force mistakes and we have to make stops.

 

[PBR549]

Running the Wishbone on offense is an equalizer. Defense is a personnel game against most offenses. We haven't been able to match up with our young players on D.

Offensively we've gotten production out if our a backs in the passing game and that has helped us immensely. We still have not hit on all cylinders on O but we've scratched an clawed and done alright. Turnovers have hurt us on offense and special teams in some of the games.

I believe in Paul Johnson and I believe he will do what he thinks gives us the best chance to win. I believe firing Roof would be a mistake. He's the reason we're recruiting better and hopefully we can get the defensive personnel to a competitive point. If he leaves I don't believe anyone who doesn't understand Tech can come in and recruit anywhere near as effectively.

I believe Paul Johnson knows that.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I compared us to Kansas. You saying Kansas has an easier schedule? I could pluck a myriad of teams from the SEC and the Big Ten... I was more trying to stay away from the hyped conferences. I'm sorry.. I think Clemson and UNC have slam bam offenses. Heck, Pitt's offense isn't too shabby either. The Big Ten is full of stout defenses, so I really didn't go there. Not sure how much is great D vs. just above average offense.

As for schedule? GT's hasn't been a top tier SOS. I wouldn't call GA Southern, Mercer, BC and Vandy as highly ranked teams. As you even said in a previous posts. All teams have cream puff games. This is when I was trying to compare our defense to good teams vs. all teams we played.

I will say this.. I am happy...yes HAPPY that we all but shut VT down. Given, the last moments of the game was a bit nerve racking, going into prevent D... But, for the most part, we did great. Just as we did great against FSU. What I want to see, is that attacking style going into the UVA game. This read, wait and try to react thing, just does not work that well. We have to pressure, we have to force mistakes and we have to make stops.

Your exact wording:

Just an update to FEI. We are now 117 out of 128 schools. Schools better than us. Buffalo, New Mexico, Middle Tennessee, South Alabama, Kansas, South Florida, Georgia State, Temple, SMU, Vandy and Wake Forrest. Now go ahead and tell me that those schools are recruit better and have better talent. I could of listed a lot more. Heck, even Kansas plays in the offense happy Big 12 and has a better FEI rank than we do. That's sad. It really is.

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feidef

Kansas was one of 11 teams you compared us to. Eight of those eleven are non-P5 teams. That's called revisionist history.

BTW, SoS rankings for each of those teams, respectively, are: 119, 131, 111, 99, 22, 75, 96, 83, 57, 45, & 62. GT's is 40.

As for the B1G and stout defenses, 4 B1G teams are in the top 25 of DFEI. Ironically, that's how many ACC teams are in the top 25 of DFEI as well. If we expand to top 30 it's 6-5 in favor of the ACC.

 

[ilovetheoption]

I stipulated in my original reply that it is a useful stat. My contention is that you can't use it to compare us to schools that play weak schedules.

I disagree with you there. As I understand it, one of the main values is that it is sos adjusted. now, if you take issue with their adjustment methodology, that's something different, and id be curious to hear your thoughts.

 

[mj claz]

Just want to point out that Pat Narduzzi's Pitt defense gave up an ACC record 580 yards passing this weekend and ranks 120th in yards/pass despite having arguably the nation's best pass rusher in Ejuan Price. Pat Narduzzi--probably a top 3 DC while at Michigan state.

Duke ranks 114th in passing defense after finishing 20th in 2014 (with the same D coordinator).

We ranked 74th in yards/play in 2012 under Dave Wommack and Ole Miss ranked 7th in 2014 under Dave Wommack.

Auburn finished in 72nd in total defense last year despite paying Will Muschamp $1.7 million. This year (coincidentally while true sophomore Carlton Davis becomes one of the best CBs in the nation and Carl Lawson is healthy and one of the best DEs in the nation) they are a top 25 defense without him.

If anyone thinks we are going to get someone better than Narduzzi or Muschamp then all I can say is you are truly delusional. You are also truly delusional if you think that we've got good talent on D this year. Not to throw anyone under the bus and I like the way young guys are developing, but we are just not great compared to other ACC teams.

Everyone can agree we had some atrocious defense against UNC, but so did FSU, a team loaded with talent. We gave up 9 yards/play, they gave up 7.7 yards/play. Who is FSU's DC? Charles Kelly. Not saying Kelly is a great DC, but he was almost our DC!! If we get rid of Roof, we are going to end up with someone like this!

I am not happy with the D, but it is very evident that Roof seems to be one of our best recruiters and his defenses have shown flashes when guys can make plays (Gotsis playing great vs FSU last year/DL and Austins vs VT this year). Roof has been here for 4 years now and he is at a point where he has been able to establish relationships with recruits for a few years and now it is finally starting to pay off. Go look at our 2011 or 2013 recruiting classes on D. Those classes have killed us. We haven't had star-studded classes in 2014-2016, but they have certainly been solid and something to build off of. Next year we will be bringing in four 4-star defenders when you include Jordan Woods returning from injury, and the 2017 class isn't done yet. We've got guys like 4 star LBs Leonard Warner and Kendric Haynes saying they really really like Roof. It would be very short-sighted to fire Roof because of a bad year. The last thing we need right now is to forfeit the continuity we have built and have a new DC potentially start all over without some of these '17 recruits

 

[mj claz]

Not to mention, we are ranked as the #1 defense in every statistical category out of teams that wear Russell uniforms in the Power 5

 

[AE 87]

Just want to point out that Pat Narduzzi's Pitt defense gave up an ACC record 580 yards passing this weekend and ranks 120th in yards/pass despite having arguably the nation's best pass rusher in Ejuan Price. Pat Narduzzi--probably a top 3 DC while at Michigan state.

Duke ranks 114th in passing defense after finishing 20th in 2014 (with the same D coordinator).

We ranked 74th in yards/play in 2012 under Dave Wommack and Ole Miss ranked 7th in 2014 under Dave Wommack.

Auburn finished in 72nd in total defense last year despite paying Will Muschamp $1.7 million. This year (coincidentally while true sophomore Carlton Davis becomes one of the best CBs in the nation and Carl Lawson is healthy and one of the best DEs in the nation) they are a top 25 defense without him.

If anyone thinks we are going to get someone better than Narduzzi or Muschamp then all I can say is you are truly delusional. You are also truly delusional if you think that we've got good talent on D this year. Not to throw anyone under the bus and I like the way young guys are developing, but we are just not great compared to other ACC teams.

Everyone can agree we had some atrocious defense against UNC, but so did FSU, a team loaded with talent. We gave up 9 yards/play, they gave up 7.7 yards/play. Who is FSU's DC? Charles Kelly. Not saying Kelly is a great DC, but he was almost our DC!! If we get rid of Roof, we are going to end up with someone like this!

I am not happy with the D, but it is very evident that Roof seems to be one of our best recruiters and his defenses have shown flashes when guys can make plays (Gotsis playing great vs FSU last year/DL and Austins vs VT this year). Roof has been here for 4 years now and he is at a point where he has been able to establish relationships with recruits for a few years and now it is finally starting to pay off. Go look at our 2011 or 2013 recruiting classes on D. Those classes have killed us. We haven't had star-studded classes in 2014-2016, but they have certainly been solid and something to build off of. Next year we will be bringing in four 4-star defenders when you include Jordan Woods returning from injury, and the 2017 class isn't done yet. We've got guys like 4 star LBs Leonard Warner and Kendric Haynes saying they really really like Roof. It would be very short-sighted to fire Roof because of a bad year. The last thing we need right now is to forfeit the continuity we have built and have a new DC potentially start all over without some of these '17 recruits

Okay, I'm a big fan of how stats can inform conversations, and I hate it when people accuse me of cherry-picking stats. But ... Duke is indeed #114 in yds/att pass Def, but they're also #16 in pass attempts/game faced and #23 in sacks/game. Duke was #114 in sacks/game and #50 in attempts/game defended last year. The difference? They hired a new DL coach. They've improved from #88 to #59 on passing yds/game Defense.

Pitt's passing defense is bad this year. However, I think it's much easier to make the case against the personnel in this case given the track record you cite.

 

[Squints]

The D showed up. Maybe the CTR haters can see that.

As a proud member of the CTR hate train I can see that, acknowledge it, and appreciate it. But I'm also not going to let a single game wipe the slate clean. Let's see what happens the rest of the year before pounding our chests shall we?

 

[jandrews]

Okay, I'm a big fan of how stats can inform conversations, and I hate it when people accuse me of cherry-picking stats. But ... Duke is indeed #114 in yds/att pass Def, but they're also #16 in pass attempts/game faced and #23 in sacks/game. Duke was #114 in sacks/game and #50 in attempts/game defended last year. The difference? They hired a new DL coach. They've improved from #88 to #59 on passing yds/game Defense.

Pitt's passing defense is bad this year. However, I think it's much easier to make the case against the personnel in this case given the track record you cite.

I briefly looked it up but duke has faced Tech and Army this year as well as WF. All of those teams had less than 16 attempts during those games. Kinda skews the stats. Also, before they played us I looked over their stats and if I remember correctly a lot of their sacks came from LBs and DBs. I could be mistaken. I hate comparing he year over year stats unless you look at ACC only. It eliminates the FCS opponents as well as non conference opponents.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

I disagree with you there. As I understand it, one of the main values is that it is sos adjusted. now, if you take issue with their adjustment methodology, that's something different, and id be curious to hear your thoughts.

It does incorporate SoS, but if you look at the data sets, you will see that it's not devalued enough. SDSU ranks super high (top 20) on DFEI but has the #122 SoS. If you look throughout the rankings, you will see that average teams with low SoS strength routinely fare better than average teams with high SoS strength.

For instance, of the current top 25 in DFEI, 11 have SoS ranked worse than 40. Two, SDSU and Troy, are 126 & 128, respectively.

Also, SEC teams get a bump in SoS, even though fellow SEC offenses are generally poor. My argument is that SoS rankings are themselves subjective and volatile, and assigning an arbitrary value to them for the purpose of equating DFEI is problematic.

So, again, all this to say that while I do believe DFEI is a valuable stat, I also think it has inherent flaws. Most statistics do. Only when you compile several stats and compare them can you truly get a better idea of where a team is. @AE 87 basically said the same thing in his post above.

 

[mj claz]

Okay, I'm a big fan of how stats can inform conversations, and I hate it when people accuse me of cherry-picking stats. But ... Duke is indeed #114 in yds/att pass Def, but they're also #16 in pass attempts/game faced and #23 in sacks/game. Duke was #114 in sacks/game and #50 in attempts/game defended last year. The difference? They hired a new DL coach. They've improved from #88 to #59 on passing yds/game Defense.

Pitt's passing defense is bad this year. However, I think it's much easier to make the case against the personnel in this case given the track record you cite.

You cant switch between yards/attempt and yards/game when it's convenient. Go listen to CPJ talk about this. We are talking an extra sack per game. This is such marginal improvement that you can honestly draw it up to chance. They were 96th in yards/attempt last year and 114th this year. Both bad. They allowed 3.6 yards/carry last year and 4.3 yards/carry this year. I'm sure they are facing less passes this year because it is easier to run on them.

This is all semantics. Duke has been a pretty bad defense the past two years whichever way you slice it up. My point is that they were good when they had guys like Jeremy Cash, DeVon Edwards, and Ross Cockrell. They don't have those talented DBs and now they are struggling despite having the same coaches.

 

[ilovetheoption]

It does incorporate SoS, but if you look at the data sets, you will see that it's not devalued enough. SDSU ranks super high (top 20) on DFEI but has the #122 SoS. If you look throughout the rankings, you will see that average teams with low SoS strength routinely fare better than average teams with high SoS strength.

For instance, of the current top 25 in DFEI, 11 have SoS ranked worse than 40. Two, SDSU and Troy, are 126 & 128, respectively.

Also, SEC teams get a bump in SoS, even though fellow SEC offenses are generally poor. My argument is that SoS rankings are themselves subjective and volatile, and assigning an arbitrary value to them for the purpose of equating DFEI is problematic.

So, again, all this to say that while I do believe DFEI is a valuable stat, I also think it has inherent flaws. Most statistics do. Only when you compile several stats and compare them can you truly get a better idea of where a team is. @AE 87 basically said the same thing in his post above.

Gotcha. I thin there's a SLIGHT chicken/egg question wrt SEC Offenses (they face SEC defenses, so maybe that's why they don't fare as well?), but overall I see what you're saying, and appreciate the thought put into it.

 

[Jmonty71]

Your exact wording:


Kansas was one of 11 teams you compared us to. Eight of those eleven are non-P5 teams. That's called revisionist history.

BTW, SoS rankings for each of those teams, respectively, are: 119, 131, 111, 99, 22, 75, 96, 83, 57, 45, & 62. GT's is 40.

As for the B1G and stout defenses, 4 B1G teams are in the top 25 of DFEI. Ironically, that's how many ACC teams are in the top 25 of DFEI as well. If we expand to top 30 it's 6-5 in favor of the ACC.

So, in order to match apples to apples find the teams with the similar SoS? Because if you do that... We'd really look bad.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

That puts us in with other P-5 schools. NC State (34 DFEI), Michigan State (108 DFEI), Miss St (90 DFEI), Minnesota (26 DFEI) and Nebraska (DFEI 49) Us sitting at 118 DFEI. So, with those numbers, we still are really bad.

Given, all those DFEI ranks have a wide gap and personally.... I'm surprised with Mich. St. for years they had a solid D. So, that was interesting to see.

Point is... regardless of how you look at it. The D is not where it needs to be. Whether it's talent, Roof, lack of understanding the system or just plain lack of trying... I really don't know. All I know, as the DC, you are responsible for the coaching of the team. No.. I don't agree with Roof's methodology. I think his scheme is outdated. Yes, it's a 4-3 / nickle base defense. But, it's how the defense is ran that's outdated. There are modern techniques that are used in those systems. Much like the run and shoot, pro offense, option, etc;;; It's not the base.. It's how it's ran. Otherwise. Every pro style offense would have the same exact plays.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

Gotcha. I thin there's a SLIGHT chicken/egg question wrt SEC Offenses (they face SEC defenses, so maybe that's why they don't fare as well?), but overall I see what you're saying, and appreciate the thought put into it.

More likely, SEC defenses face SEC offenses, which is why they are so good.

 

[Augusta_Jacket]

So, in order to match apples to apples find the teams with the similar SoS? Because if you do that... We'd really look bad.

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

That puts us in with other P-5 schools. NC State (34 DFEI), Michigan State (108 DFEI), Miss St (90 DFEI), Minnesota (26 DFEI) and Nebraska (DFEI 49) Us sitting at 118 DFEI. So, with those numbers, we still are really bad.

Given, all those DFEI ranks have a wide gap and personally.... I'm surprised with Mich. St. for years they had a solid D. So, that was interesting to see.

Point is... regardless of how you look at it. The D is not where it needs to be. Whether it's talent, Roof, lack of understanding the system or just plain lack of trying... I really don't know. All I know, as the DC, you are responsible for the coaching of the team. No.. I don't agree with Roof's methodology. I think his scheme is outdated. Yes, it's a 4-3 / nickle base defense. But, it's how the defense is ran that's outdated. There are modern techniques that are used in those systems. Much like the run and shoot, pro offense, option, etc;;; It's not the base.. It's how it's ran. Otherwise. Every pro style offense would have the same exact plays.

So, now that we are comparing apples to apples, the next part of your argument comes into play. You specifically asked us to justify being outperformed by "lesser" school who didn't recruit as well as us. With the exception of possibly Minnesota, every one of these new schools routinely get's higher rated recruits. Three of those teams are routinely ranked in the top-25 in recruiting.

Again, I am not saying that the D isn't bad this year. I was merely pointing out the major flaw in your argument. You simply refuse to miss an opportunity to bash CTR, and if that opportunity doesn't exist, you create one.