Some optimistic tidbits for those losing hope

[Root4GT]

There are four teams on our remaining schedule that are under serious consideration as probable wins. I looked at each team's record in detail and assigned each a letter grade for Strength of Record. I threw in Notre Dame for good measure since they have a G5 loss. It’s still early season for most teams but we are starting to get enough data to be meaningful. I ranked our opponents from easiest win to most difficult.

Net of all this is that I see 3 likely wins, a toss-up, and 1 likely loss. Obviously this assessment can change as teams play more games.

There are still a few question marks - VT lost to Vandy, but is Vandy actually pretty good this year? I gave VT the benefit of the doubt to be conservative in my assessment.

Team	Record	Starting QB Out?	ESPN FPI Rank	FEI Rank	GT's ESPN Win Chance	Strength of Record
GT	3-2	No	41	57		B-
NCST	2-2	Yes	80	79	78%	D-
Duke	4-0	No	65	58	72%	C
UNC	3-1	Yes	69	51	60%	C
VT	2-2	No	49	55	48%	B-
N. Dame	3-1	No	9	11	18%	B

Good stuff. I am not sure what your strength of record means exactly, results/performance by the team is what I believe it is. NCST's 2 losses were very one sided but they were to very good teams. Their two wins were not very impressive for sure. Hard to tell with them based on performance and their QB out.

 

[Techwood Relict]

Perhaps, but I would be surprised if ESPN's algorithm is that nuanced.

I've not seen that espn engages in much sophistication.
Grog no like nuance......

 

[iceeater1969]

I'm not sure how you post it to dumb luck. They hit long pass plays, their ST blocked a kick, their D stuffed the heck out of our run game.

It wasn't luck - they flat out beat us.

We aided in the beating.-
Fair catch on the 5!!!, free run at fg block are hard to overcome.

They had a little lucky bounce on batted ball staying in the endzone and the fg recovers being a score. They still might have scored, but those 2 errors of ommision l were killers. 14 points.

Just for grins what if those bone head plays had gone our way, but thier qb bonehead end zone trip and flip pass was a pick 6 for tech.

 

[Techfan02]

Seriously folks, no need to lose hope. Before the season I said this team would win between 5 and 7 games. Nothing has occurred to make me change that view. The hope is that we can win 6 or more and a lovely slot in the noonegivesacrap.com bowl.

Is 2025 the year?

 

[roadkill]

Good stuff. I am not sure what your strength of record means exactly, results/performance by the team is what I believe it is. NCST's 2 losses were very one sided but they were to very good teams. Their two wins were not very impressive for sure. Hard to tell with them based on performance and their QB out.

Thanks - and I should have explained my "Strength of Record" grade a bit more. Basically, it's just my take on how they have performed as a team so far this season. There is no complex math formula involved, but I did examine each win and loss, and the strength of the competition for each.

NCST did not get graded so much on their bad losses as much as their shaky performances in their wins against teams that a decent P5 should have rolled. They were down 2 scores at the half against a bad G5 team and required a 4th quarter rally to beat a bad FCS team by two scores. The only reason they didn't get a failing grade is they found a way to win these 2 games. Grayson McCall played the entire game in their FCS opener.

 

[apatriot1776]

Perhaps, but I would be surprised if ESPN's algorithm is that nuanced.

Doubt it takes much nuance - perhaps both ND and Mia started at the same percentage and ESPN just adds +X% odds due to playing at home (instead of neutral), +X% odds for teams with bye week before, and +X% odds for teams with bye week after.

 

[roadkill]

Doubt it takes much nuance - perhaps both ND and Mia started at the same percentage and ESPN just adds +X% odds due to playing at home (instead of neutral), +X% odds for teams with bye week before, and +X% odds for teams with bye week after.

If ESPN differentiates between a home game at MBS and a home game at BDS, that's pretty nuanced in my opinion.

Also, I've never seen a well-reasoned assessment of a team's win chance % difference with or without a bye.

 

[bobongo]

Is 2025 the year?

Next year is always the year.

 

[GTflyer0116]

IMO, the Duke game coming up is a 'must-win' for us to go 6-6 and bowling. Lose there and our chances plummet. It's a night game and we are coming off a nice bye week. Next Saturday is critical.

 

[iceeater1969]

A little tidbit for bye week improvennt.
Duke plays UNC .They are the next 2 teams on our schedule.

Duke is 4 and 0 riding a hot streak against crummy teams. They have a bigcrb and a good wr. UNC is looking bad (except Rb Hampton) against crummy teams .UNC has an extremly unpredictable defense invented in secret by TFP.

BOTH TEAMS WILL OPEN THE PLAY BOOK .


Maybe - a team meeting and dinner.
Being real - we really need these 2 games to get back on track.

We all know the players will watch the game (3pm). With all the consistancy talk about getting ready the same way, we could have team watch and then a dinner.

Before watch coach could thank for hard work past week at addressing past issues and the new solutions. We now have these 2 teams in the way of our goal. After warc a nice steak dinner with all the trimmings plus lots banana pudding for dessert.

 

[stech81]

Is 2025 the year?

that's an old wives tale, i stop believing them years ago when someone said woman hit their sexual peak in their 40's. Guess if that was true, I missed the day when my wife hit hers.

 

[apatriot1776]

If ESPN differentiates between a home game at MBS and a home game at BDS, that's pretty nuanced in my opinion.

Also, I've never seen a well-reasoned assessment of a team's win chance % difference with or without a bye.

ESPN has the ND game listed as ND vs GT, not as ND @ GT, so it's not treated as a home game.

See the ND schedule:

 

[roadkill]

ESPN has the ND game listed as ND vs GT, not as ND @ GT, so it's not treated as a home game.

See the ND schedule:
View attachment 16894

Interesting. We have it listed on our schedule as "vs" also, which I thought was reserved for home games. But Notre Dame has it as a neutral site game on their football schedule. To my knowledge, the GTAA has marketed it as a "home" game but I could be mistaken.

In any case, if ESPN is treating it as a neutral site game, that would eliminate the usual home-field advantage and explain some or all of the Win % differential with Miami with no nuance needed.

 

[Yaller Jacket]

It will be interesting to see what Faulkner and Key come up with for these short yardage situations. This is crucial. If there is no fix for the blocking, surely there is something which can start out having the look of smash the line play buy turns into something which takes advantage of the look. The short pass mentioned earlier, for instance.

 

[alagold]

There are some obvious things to fix./improve in off wk. -if possible.
1.Better short-yrd plays.
2. Better OL blocking.
3.Better FG kicking.
4.Control the punt returner so he "NOT hurts" first..
5.Come up with scheme to rush passer somehow.. (will make the DBs look a bit better.)

How to improve "game mgt" by coaches. ?